Bailey's value has probably dropped marginally from his status last year, but not by as much as some make it out to be IMO. The fact of the matter is that Bailey still managed to get through another year without any major injuries. That in itself is at least half the battle right now. As long as Bailey can log 150+ innings over the next few years, I like his chances of developing into a reasonable starter.
His major league audition made it abundantly clear that he isn't a major league ready product, but I'm going to assume that most baseball executives knew that in the first palce. In my mind his value didn't drop much with that, is that his season was pretty predictable. His struggles really shouldn't have surprised anyone. Not sure who he was fooling as a polished product.
He's still the big kid that oozes potential, fairly close to the majors. I'm sure he would appeal to most any club, especially the pitching starved Orioles. The reason Bedard isn't a Red right now IMO, is the refusal to include Bruce, or the refusal to move an additional high end prospect to go along with Bailey (assuming he truly was offered in the first place).
Last edited by Patrick Bateman; 03-05-2008 at 04:38 PM.
Thinking about it again and I doubt he would have landed Bedard anyway. The O's seemed hell bent on getting a top OF prospect for him. Bailey probably wouldn't have tickled their fancy.
Last edited by BRM; 03-05-2008 at 04:44 PM.
Well that's all semantics anyways, but I'd say if your a top 15 prospect (and I think Bailey is) then you are indeed better than most any other prospect. That would make you an average-above average #1 prospect for a team, meaning there a lot of teams where Bailey would easily be their most prized jewel.
If he can't bring what you want in return, I fail to see where the notion of a top-ten commodity comes from.
In short, he can't help the Reds when he's with them as a prospect, and right now he can't bring in what they need.
Of course you could trade Bailey right now--some team would take him--but you're selling pennies on what was once the dollar.
It is simply why they invented the term, "prospect." And why you should never, ever, ever overvalue your own unless you want to remain the Pittsburgh Pirates for the foreseeable future.
Bruce was untaouchable, but now his legs are a question. Bailey was untaouchable, now he is a head case. Cueto is currently untouchable, but he remains a prospect.....
I just believe you should take 50% off the value the "experts" and your own scouts give a prospect. Of course you don't trade them all, or maybe even more than an occassional few. But you need to see that this is one reason that teams that depend on their farm must live within a competitive CYCLE. And you need to senstitive to it.
The time is NOW for the Reds (or maybe a few months ago when they had a chance to get the pieces they needed). Forget about 3-4 years from now.....it just ain't gonna happen.
"Is there a problem officers?"
Maybe I am in the minority but I still think Homer Bailey could maybe possibly be kind of good. Can't believe how quickly people have turned on Bailey. Maybe the kid doesn't do well with the media but he has made 9 starts. 9 starts people how about we give him a fair chance before we start labeling him as worthless.
I haven't seen anyone label Bailey as worthless. Pointing out his stock might be low at this point in his career is hardly "turning on him".
And maybe he does.Maybe the kid doesn't do well with the media
"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini
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