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Thread: Buster Olney on Homer Bailey

  1. #16
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    Re: Buster Olney on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Ive said it before and will say it again also:
    You aren't always at your top value while you are a prospect.
    Great, but one window of tradeability appears to have closed for him.

    Bailey's now a "project," not an uberprospect.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Buster Olney on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Great, but one window of tradeability appears to have closed for him.
    Of course the response begs the question of 'why must you trade him'?

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    Re: Buster Olney on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Of course the response begs the question of 'why must you trade him'?
    It may improve the team overall? I don't think he's saying Homer must be traded. Just that it would be nice if his value was high enough to get a good return if he were to be traded.

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    Re: Buster Olney on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Of course the response begs the question of 'why must you trade him'?
    The thing is now the Reds have no choice basically but to hold onto him.

    Now here comes a test of this organization's ability to turn raw material into an actual pitcher.

  6. #20
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    Re: Buster Olney on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    The thing is now the Reds have no choice basically but to hold onto him.

    Now here comes a test of this organization's ability to turn raw material into an actual pitcher.
    The Reds could trade him 5 minutes from now if they truly wanted to. You act as if he has no value. the kid has tons of value. Is it what it was a year ago? Probably not, but he still has more value than almost every prospect in baseball.

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    Re: Buster Olney on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The Reds could trade him 5 minutes from now if they truly wanted to. You act as if he has no value. the kid has tons of value. Is it what it was a year ago? Probably not, but he still has more value than almost every prospect in baseball.
    Erik Bedard would probably be a Red right now if Bailey's value was truly higher than nearly every prospect in baseball.

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    Re: Buster Olney on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Erik Bedard would probably be a Red right now if Bailey's value was truly higher than nearly every prospect in baseball.
    Well to be fair, how many prospects do have more value than Bailey right now? 15-20 tops if you were being pessimistic? Based on most lists I've seen, Bailey remains one of the better prospects in baseball. That's based on Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus... etc.

    Bailey's value has probably dropped marginally from his status last year, but not by as much as some make it out to be IMO. The fact of the matter is that Bailey still managed to get through another year without any major injuries. That in itself is at least half the battle right now. As long as Bailey can log 150+ innings over the next few years, I like his chances of developing into a reasonable starter.

    His major league audition made it abundantly clear that he isn't a major league ready product, but I'm going to assume that most baseball executives knew that in the first palce. In my mind his value didn't drop much with that, is that his season was pretty predictable. His struggles really shouldn't have surprised anyone. Not sure who he was fooling as a polished product.

    He's still the big kid that oozes potential, fairly close to the majors. I'm sure he would appeal to most any club, especially the pitching starved Orioles. The reason Bedard isn't a Red right now IMO, is the refusal to include Bruce, or the refusal to move an additional high end prospect to go along with Bailey (assuming he truly was offered in the first place).
    Last edited by Patrick Bateman; 03-05-2008 at 05:38 PM.

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    Re: Buster Olney on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns View Post
    Well to be fair, how many prospects do have more value than Bailey right now? 15-20 tops if you were being pessimistic?
    That's not quite the same as saying his value is better than nearly every prospect in baseball. At least not to me. Maybe I read too much into what doug typed.

    Thinking about it again and I doubt he would have landed Bedard anyway. The O's seemed hell bent on getting a top OF prospect for him. Bailey probably wouldn't have tickled their fancy.
    Last edited by BRM; 03-05-2008 at 05:44 PM.

  10. #24
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    Re: Buster Olney on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    That''s not quite the same as saying his value is better than nearly every prospect in baseball. At least not to me. Maybe I read too much into what doug typed.

    Well that's all semantics anyways, but I'd say if your a top 15 prospect (and I think Bailey is) then you are indeed better than most any other prospect. That would make you an average-above average #1 prospect for a team, meaning there a lot of teams where Bailey would easily be their most prized jewel.

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    Re: Buster Olney on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The Reds could trade him 5 minutes from now if they truly wanted to. You act as if he has no value. the kid has tons of value. Is it what it was a year ago? Probably not, but he still has more value than almost every prospect in baseball.
    The Reds tried mightily to move him this offseason. He's still a Red.

    If he can't bring what you want in return, I fail to see where the notion of a top-ten commodity comes from.

    In short, he can't help the Reds when he's with them as a prospect, and right now he can't bring in what they need.

    Of course you could trade Bailey right now--some team would take him--but you're selling pennies on what was once the dollar.

  12. #26
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    Re: Buster Olney on Homer Bailey

    It is simply why they invented the term, "prospect." And why you should never, ever, ever overvalue your own unless you want to remain the Pittsburgh Pirates for the foreseeable future.

    Bruce was untaouchable, but now his legs are a question. Bailey was untaouchable, now he is a head case. Cueto is currently untouchable, but he remains a prospect.....

    I just believe you should take 50% off the value the "experts" and your own scouts give a prospect. Of course you don't trade them all, or maybe even more than an occassional few. But you need to see that this is one reason that teams that depend on their farm must live within a competitive CYCLE. And you need to senstitive to it.

    The time is NOW for the Reds (or maybe a few months ago when they had a chance to get the pieces they needed). Forget about 3-4 years from now.....it just ain't gonna happen.
    "Is there a problem officers?"

  13. #27
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    Re: Buster Olney on Homer Bailey

    Maybe I am in the minority but I still think Homer Bailey could maybe possibly be kind of good. Can't believe how quickly people have turned on Bailey. Maybe the kid doesn't do well with the media but he has made 9 starts. 9 starts people how about we give him a fair chance before we start labeling him as worthless.

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    Re: Buster Olney on Homer Bailey

    I haven't seen anyone label Bailey as worthless. Pointing out his stock might be low at this point in his career is hardly "turning on him".

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    Re: Buster Olney on Homer Bailey

    Maybe the kid doesn't do well with the media
    And maybe he does.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Buster Olney on Homer Bailey

    Quote Originally Posted by kbrake View Post
    Maybe I am in the minority but I still think Homer Bailey could maybe possibly be kind of good. Can't believe how quickly people have turned on Bailey. Maybe the kid doesn't do well with the media but he has made 9 starts. 9 starts people how about we give him a fair chance before we start labeling him as worthless.
    For myself, I haven't "turned" on him. I've always had problems with him from a control standpoint, and because he's a product of a system that doesn't know how to turn minor league starters into major league starters (which isn't his fault obviously).


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