Buster Olney on Homer Bailey

[kbrake]

For myself, I haven't "turned" on him. I've always had problems with him from a control standpoint, and because he's a product of a system that doesn't know how to turn minor league starters into major league starters (which isn't his fault obviously).

Fair point and I am pretty sure I do remember your stance on him being consistant from the start. Dont you think though that this place has jumped off a bridge in regards to Bailey?

[Caveat Emperor]

Fair point and I am pretty sure I do remember your stance on him being consistant from the start. Dont you think though that this place has jumped off a bridge in regards to Bailey?

Most people had their hopes pinned that Bailey was naturally gifted to overcome the unbelievably poor coaching they knew he was going to get.

Since it seems that isn't the case, it creates a much more pessimistic view in people's minds.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Bailey will be fine. It's all about getting his confidence back. Let's not forget he wasn't just very good in the minors in 2006 and '07 before his callup, he was dominant. Once he finds his confidence on the MLB level, he will shine. And yes, some control would help. But for pitchers, a lot of times that goes hand-and-hand with confidence.

[dougdirt]

Erik Bedard would probably be a Red right now if Bailey's value was truly higher than nearly every prospect in baseball.

Not really. The Mariners traded Adam Jones, who likely would have fallen right behind Bailey in most rankings had he qualified, a proven Major League arm, the #2 prospect in the Cal League according to Baseball America and a Top 100 prospect in baseball, a quality reliever in Kam Micklio who throws up to 97 MPH who spent time in AAA last year with success and Tony Butler who was the teams #12 overall prospect who has a decent fastball and one of the systems best curveball.

To get Erik Bedard the Reds were going to have to give up a lot more than Homer Bailey's value in December 2006.

[kbrake]

Since it seems that isn't the case, it creates a much more pessimistic view in people's minds.

Thats the part of it I don't get. Homer has had 12 starts in AAA and 9 at the Major League level. How can anything not seem to be the case? I am not saying he could not use more time in AAA all I am saying is it seems like people have lost all faith in Homer and I'm not sure why other then a couple reporters putting thoughts into the heads of people because they are not happy with Homer.

[dougdirt]

That's not quite the same as saying his value is better than nearly every prospect in baseball. At least not to me. Maybe I read too much into what doug typed.

Thinking about it again and I doubt he would have landed Bedard anyway. The O's seemed hell bent on getting a top OF prospect for him. Bailey probably wouldn't have tickled their fancy.

Homer Bailey was the #9 ranked prospect by Baseball America, ESPN and Baseball Prospectus. I would say being the 9th best prospect in all of baseball means you have more value than nearly every prospect in baseball considering there are over 5,000 minor leaguers.

[dougdirt]

The Reds tried mightily to move him this offseason. He's still a Red.

If he can't bring what you want in return, I fail to see where the notion of a top-ten commodity comes from.

In short, he can't help the Reds when he's with them as a prospect, and right now he can't bring in what they need.

Of course you could trade Bailey right now--some team would take him--but you're selling pennies on what was once the dollar.

Because no prospect single handedly is going to bring you an Erik Bedard. So you are now asking more out of Bailey than anyone can return.

As for selling for pennies on the dollar, no. More like selling .80 on the dollar.

[dougdirt]

It is simply why they invented the term, "prospect." And why you should never, ever, ever overvalue your own unless you want to remain the Pittsburgh Pirates for the foreseeable future.

Bruce was untaouchable, but now his legs are a question. Bailey was untaouchable, now he is a head case. Cueto is currently untouchable, but he remains a prospect.....

There is NOTHING wrong with Jay Bruce's legs. Dusty Baker is a freaking idiot and had no clue what he was talking about when he said what he said.

[NC Reds]

There is NOTHING wrong with Jay Bruce's legs. Dusty Baker is a freaking idiot and had no clue what he was talking about when he said what he said.

Amen to that.

I firmly believe this organization will only get off of the hamster wheel of mediocrity when it fully embraces the concept of developing young talent. Maybe I am misreading the situation, but whoever moaned to the press about Homer's attitude should consider another line of work. Don't tell me that Homer won't listen. If your job is to teach, then teach. If Homer needs an attitude adjustment, then you adjust it.

This reminds me of a former football coach at one of my alma maters. He used to lament that the kids "had not learned how to win yet." Sorry buddy, but its your job to teach and instill the habits that lead to winning. Don't blame the kids because you can't do your job.

Homer wants to be successful. Get some coaches in here that want the challenge of developing his talent.

[mth123]

This is all nonsense.

People who understand baseball still value Bailey and his long-term value remains intact. The misguided masses (who I and most of this board may have been in moments of weakness last off-season) who thought that the time was upon us have soured because he didn't become a TOR starter after a few starts have soured, but people who know real talent probably don't think that way.

Unrealistic expectations for Bailey's progression are now facing a dose of reality. If that equates to a drop in value, then I guess that is what we have. I think that people who are inside the game, who have the actual power to place value, never had those unrealistic expectations in the first place. I suppose a few teams had hoped that the Reds had soured a little and tried to steal Bailey. Those lowball offers don't mean that Bailey has lost value and the fact that the Reds didn't find the right deal doesn't mean he is now untradeable. I think it means the Reds were smart and didn't bite on a franchise killing pipedream.

Seattle made one of the worst deals I can remember in getting Bedard. Unless there is some secret agreement that Bedard is willing to sign long-term, it simply isn't worth it. Seattle's ownership has the money to buy its way out of the huge hole that deal put in its future, so they may recover. But that organization is much worse off by dealing so much for such a short term rental. I wouldn't have dealt Adam Jones straight-up for Bedard unless a contract extension was involved. Adding all those other guys was lunacy and refusal to be the victim of such a deal is the real reason that the Reds didn't move Bailey.

Baltimore waited for a chump. Seattle obliged. Bailey is still a Red. Under those circumstances, good for us.

[traderumor]

Using Buster Olney as a source to support any argument is not wise.