3/9/08 vs Deviless Rays

[M2]

I think it's abundantly obvious that Affeldt and Fogg are worse options than Belisle, but what I don't think is obvious (to most) is that for the Reds to be a good team, they can't rely on a guy like Belisle being their third best starter.

I can't count how many times I saw "I think the rotation will be deep" this offseason. Oh, who am I kidding? Every offseason since this site was created I've seen that.

You're right that the Reds haven't developed a "vanquish" strategy. Yet I think this is potentially a better "defend the city walls" strategy than previous seasons.

I don't yet have an opinion on where the W-L totals will fall because there's too many unknowns at the moment (starting lineup, bench, rotation and bullpen), but Belisle being average, Fogg being only mildly below average and a kid being at least average could net the club 80-85 wins if the other parts of the team are solid. I'm not particularly sold that will happen, but it's not like past seasons where everybody in the rotation (or nearly everybody) was headed for a poor season. This rotation may not kill the club all by itself. While it's far short of a rotation that might elevate the club, it's still a step in the right direction.

Affeldt in the rotation is where I think the wretching ought to start, but I'm becoming more and more convinced that isn't in the cards.

[Patrick Bateman]

I think it's abundantly obvious that Affeldt and Fogg are worse options than Belisle, but what I don't think is obvious (to most) is that for the Reds to be a good team, they can't rely on a guy like Belisle being their third best starter.

That's pretty well true. I've argued countless times that as a backend option, Belisle can be fairly valuable while he's cheap and improving. But even with his benefits, his skill level does not justify being one of the best 3 starters on the team. Since the Reds couldn't secure that need through trade, the 3rd starter needs to come from the young guys, which is probably a stretch at this point in their careers. But in Volquez and Cueto, there is potential to find that pretty quickly.

[OnBaseMachine]

Daryl Thompson pitched just the one inning but it was an impressive one. 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K.

[M2]

Rocco Baldelli's injury leaves the Rays short on OF help and long on guys who are likely only realistic options at DH most of the time (Floyd, Gomes, Baldelli) or the DL. Hopper and Freel playing today may prove valuable should the Reds want to move one as they cut down the roster.

The Beelzebubbas at some point are going to have to admit to themselves that Baldelli will never be healthy and plan accordingly.

I'm all for moving an OF their way, though I doubt Tampa Bay would be interested in what the Reds have got (though I can see a case for why Ken Griffey Jr. would be a solid fit for that franchise) and even if a guy like Freel grabbed their interest I doubt the Reds could wrangle the arm I'd want (J.P. Howell).

[OnBaseMachine]

I'm all for moving an OF their way, though I doubt Tampa Bay would be interested in what the Reds have got (though I can see a case for why Ken Griffey Jr. would be a solid fit for that franchise) and even if a guy like Freel grabbed their interest I doubt the Reds could wrangle the arm I'd want (J.P. Howell).

Funny you should mention targeting J.P. Howell...I said the same thing a couple hours ago in another thread.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=257

He's got a career 3.20 ERA and 9.49 K/9 in 346.2 career minor league innings. He also spent 51 innings in the majors with the Rays last season and while his ERA wasn't pretty (7.59), he still managed to strikeout 49 batters in those 51 innings. I think he would be a solid acquisition who could settle in as a No. 4 starter within the next year or two. I'd trade Freel or Hopper + a minor prospect like Jordan Smith for him.

[lollipopcurve]

I think the Rays have been auditioning Edwin Jackson for the Reds. Both of his starts have been vs Cincy. And he failed miserably today. Personally, I'd like to see all trading chips on deck for any possible deal for a catcher, if one can be had (Gerald Laird?)...

[VR]

just tuned in to the game thread....without a box score I'm guessing Belisle have up about 6 earned in 3 innings, and will be released after the game?:all_cohol

[M2]

Funny you should mention targeting J.P. Howell...I said the same thing a couple hours ago in another thread.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=257

He's got a career 3.20 ERA and 9.49 K/9 in 346.2 career minor league innings. He also spent 51 innings in the majors with the Rays last season and while his ERA wasn't pretty (7.59), he still managed to strikeout 49 batters in those 51 innings. I think he would be a solid acquisition who could settle in as a No. 4 starter within the next year or two. I'd trade Freel or Hopper + a minor prospect like Jordan Smith for him.

Yeah, I've liked Howell for years. The Royals and DRays pushed him too quickly, but I think he's going to outperform a lot of the more touted arms around him.

Unfortunately I'm not convinced he can be had for the kind of price you're talking about.

I think the Rays have been auditioning Edwin Jackson for the Reds. Both of his starts have been vs Cincy. And he failed miserably today. Personally, I'd like to see all trading chips on deck for any possible deal for a catcher, if one can be had (Gerald Laird?)...

I've never made any secret about my disdain for Jackson's game. The Rays can try to start him, but I don't think he's got any meaningful future outside the pen, if there.

I like the way you're thinking on the catcher front, and Laird would be a stellar target.

[Matt700wlw]

just tuned in to the game thread....without a box score I'm guessing Belisle have up about 6 earned in 3 innings, and will be released after the game?:all_cohol

1 unearned run....but he made it difficult on himself. His final inning was quick and easy, though.

[edabbs44]

just tuned in to the game thread....without a box score I'm guessing Belisle have up about 6 earned in 3 innings, and will be released after the game?:all_cohol

It was Upton and the backups today for TB. If he had a bad outing it would have been really bad.

[VR]

I think Belisle will be one of the most productive #3's in the league this year. I guarantee he will not produce like Brandon Webb, however.

[Matt700wlw]

I think Belisle will be one of the most productive #3's in the league this year. I guarantee he will not produce like Brandon Webb, however.

Unacceptable then Webb or bust!!!

[Superdude]

Belisle's already a solid #5 with the upside for more. The guy's stats are eerily similar to a pre-breakout Aaron Harang. Isn't that alone enough to guarantee him a rotation spot when Josh Fogg is the second option?

[RedsManRick]

Belisle is fine as a back end option. So is Fogg. So is Affeldt. The problem is that those 3 have the potential to be the 3-5 part of the rotation.

Looking at each guy to fulfill the same slot in the rotation and saying that they are fine as that role just doesn't make any sense.

Well, you work with what you have. You don't deny them a rotation spot simply because it has the #3 label instead of the #5. You aren't competing for the #3 spot in the rotation, otherwise nobody would win. You compete for the right to be a starter and then you get slotted in as appropriate.

[edabbs44]

Well, you work with what you have. You don't deny them a rotation spot simply because it has the #3 label instead of the #5. You aren't competing for the #3 spot in the rotation, otherwise nobody would win. You compete for the right to be a starter and then you get slotted in as appropriate.

It was more of an indictment of the FO than it was of Belisle.