You're right that the Reds haven't developed a "vanquish" strategy. Yet I think this is potentially a better "defend the city walls" strategy than previous seasons.
I don't yet have an opinion on where the W-L totals will fall because there's too many unknowns at the moment (starting lineup, bench, rotation and bullpen), but Belisle being average, Fogg being only mildly below average and a kid being at least average could net the club 80-85 wins if the other parts of the team are solid. I'm not particularly sold that will happen, but it's not like past seasons where everybody in the rotation (or nearly everybody) was headed for a poor season. This rotation may not kill the club all by itself. While it's far short of a rotation that might elevate the club, it's still a step in the right direction.
Affeldt in the rotation is where I think the wretching ought to start, but I'm becoming more and more convinced that isn't in the cards.