Janish?

[Reds1]

I don't mind starts by Keppinger, but ultimately this team is best with Gonz back at SS.
As far as CF I don't know. Bruce looks like the real deal to me, but I'd like to see him play a few more times. I don't really like him in the leadoff. I can't see the reds sitting speedsters Hopper, Free, and Patterson everyday - well, I guess there's no way they all make it. Going to be interseting. Makes it fun though.

[Patrick Bateman]

I appreciate Janish's defensive abilities, but Keppinger is such a superior hitter, i really don't see how Janish could close that gap with his defensive abilities. Firstly, I think Janish's defense has been overrated. Since he was drafted he was supposed to be in Adam Everett's class of fielding, but I have trouble buying that considering that Janish has never been known for his speed. He's obviously got a great glove and a terrific fielder on the balls he does get to, but I'm led to believe that the lack of top flight speed prevents Janish from being a truly elite fielder... ie. the level he'd have to get to to dwarf Kepp's abilities with the bat.

Now I think Kepp is in line for a bit of a regression hitting wise, partially the reason why I'm dead set at keeping Gonzalez as the starter when he is healthy enough to play, but either way, Kepp should have a pretty strong ability to get on base. That will be badly needed with Ross and probably Patterson/Hopper/Freel getting regular spots in the line-up. The offense would take a major hit with Janish grabbing regular at-bats in the meantime as well. As others have noted, Janish has been an abysmal hitter in the upper minors, and as such would get throughly dominated up here. I like his patience up there, but even with that his bat wont make it work. To me, he's the guy that should be able to provide what Juan Castro supposedly does in the long term, but nothing more.

We'll need the offense with Kepp, and even with the defensive loss he is easily more valuable than Janish IMO.

[Reds1]

We'll need the offense with Kepp, and even with the defensive loss he is easily more valuable than Janish IMO.

I really don't see how anyone could dispute this. Now if we have a lead and you want to bring Janish in the 8th, 9th inning, but I"m not big on doing that. Or an emergency utility guy, but I just don't see it happening. Free will be supersub at 3B and 2B and Kepp at SS and 1B against lefties. That's what I think.

[flyer85]

I really don't see how anyone could dispute this.

I assume you have data that suggests that's the case.

[Reds1]

I assume you have data that suggests that's the case.

Look at his stats. He's never hit. You can't start in the major leagues at SS and not be able to put the bat on the ball. I'm not seeing it. I'd love to see him catch fire, but Dusty is a vet loving guy and this team needs a decent righty lower in the line up that Gonz and Kepp can provide. Just because anouncers say this guy is great defensively doesn't make it so. Does he have the range and the arm that will change games. Now, I'm not a coach or been to spring training. I've seen one game and only have raw stats to go by and I don't see how anyone can say this kid has a chance to start over Keppinger or even make this team.

[flyer85]

Look at his stats. He's never hit.

actually I agree, I was hoping someone else would do the legwork to quantify the argument. I could go to BP and use PECOTA ...

Janish has a +4 FRAA and Keppinger as a -2. Not anywhere near large enough to offset the likely difference in offense(VORP 22.9 versus 7.3

[Cedric]

actually I agree, I was hoping someone else would do the legwork to quantify the argument. I could go to BP and use PECOTA ...

Janish has a +4 FRAA and Keppinger as a -2. Not anywhere near large enough to offset the likely difference in offense(VORP 22.9 versus 7.3

That's a limited outlook, IMO. Are you not counting the effect a much better defensive SS has on the pitching staff as a whole? There are some things in baseball that can't be quantified in a nifty little stat. Confidence in their defense is a huge advantage for pitchers, IMO. Is that enough for Janish to be the main man at SS? I'm not sure. I'm just saying there is more to it than just VORP.

[flyer85]

That's a limited outlook, IMO. Are you not counting the effect a much better defensive SS has on the pitching staff as a whole? There are some things in baseball that can't be quantified in a nifty little stat. Confidence in their defense is a huge advantage for pitchers, IMO. Is that enough for Janish to be the main man at SS? I'm not sure. I'm just saying there is more to it than just VORP.

VORP is strictly an offensive stat, that's why I also used FRAA which attempts to quantify defense ... could have used WARP. Defense is hard to objectively quantify but PECOTA doesn't think Janish is anything more than slighty above average and it sees Gonzo as average, and Keppinger as slightly below average.

[Cedric]

VORP is strictly an offensive stat, that's why I also used FRAA which attempts to quantify defense ... could have used WARP. Defense is hard to objectively quantify but PECOTA doesn't think Janish is anything more than slighty above average and it sees Gonzo as average, and Keppinger as slightly below average.

But none of these stats speak for how Janish might change the confidence level of pitchers. It's hard enough pitching in the major leagues, something like confidence in the defense behind you is huge.

[flyer85]

But none of these stats speak for how Janish might change the confidence level of pitchers.

and no stat ever will. The best pitchers are the ones with the ability to block out external conditions and focus on the things they can control.

[Cedric]

and no stat ever will. The best pitchers are the ones with the ability to block out external conditions and focus on the things they can control.

Problem is we know the Reds don't have those pitchers. They need any help they can get. Both mental and with players playing behind them. I can only imagine what I would be thinking if I had to turn around and see Felipe Lopez at SS behind me.

Keppinger isn't that bad luckily.

[M2]

I appreciate Janish's defensive abilities, but Keppinger is such a superior hitter, i really don't see how Janish could close that gap with his defensive abilities. Firstly, I think Janish's defense has been overrated. Since he was drafted he was supposed to be in Adam Everett's class of fielding, but I have trouble buying that considering that Janish has never been known for his speed. He's obviously got a great glove and a terrific fielder on the balls he does get to, but I'm led to believe that the lack of top flight speed prevents Janish from being a truly elite fielder... ie. the level he'd have to get to to dwarf Kepp's abilities with the bat.

Now I think Kepp is in line for a bit of a regression hitting wise, partially the reason why I'm dead set at keeping Gonzalez as the starter when he is healthy enough to play, but either way, Kepp should have a pretty strong ability to get on base. That will be badly needed with Ross and probably Patterson/Hopper/Freel getting regular spots in the line-up. The offense would take a major hit with Janish grabbing regular at-bats in the meantime as well. As others have noted, Janish has been an abysmal hitter in the upper minors, and as such would get throughly dominated up here. I like his patience up there, but even with that his bat wont make it work. To me, he's the guy that should be able to provide what Juan Castro supposedly does in the long term, but nothing more.

We'll need the offense with Kepp, and even with the defensive loss he is easily more valuable than Janish IMO.

What AK said. Janish, literally, might be a .600 OPS bat. You just can't put that in a starting lineup.

[Cedric]

What AK said. Janish, literally, might be a .600 OPS bat. You just can't put that in a starting lineup.

Agreed. I haven't been able to find his career numbers. Any chance you have them?

[*BaseClogger*]

Year Team Lg Age Org. Level   Pos Ln G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP IBB SH  SF DP  AVG OBP SLG OPS  
Billings Pio 21 Cin Rk   ss   66 205 39 54 11 0 2 22 7 3 45 45 5 0 7 1 2  .263 .406 .346 752
2005 Dayton Midw 22 Cin A   ss   55 208 30 51 10 2 5 29 5 2 29 38 5 2 8 4 1  .245 .346 .385 731
2006 Dayton Midw 23 Cin A   ss   26 98 19 39 6 0 5 18 0 0 7 10 1 0 0 2 0  .398 .435 .612 1047
  Sarasota FSL 23 Cin A+   ss   91 336 53 93 17 2 9 55 8 2 38 40 6 0 7 7 8  .277 .354 .420 774
  Chattga Sou 23 Cin AA   ss   4 15 1 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 1  .267 .313 .333 646
2007 Chattga Sou 24 Cin AA   ss   88 324 46 79 21 2 1 20 10 3 50 54 9 0 5 3 5  .244 .358 .330 688
  Louisville IL 24 Cin AAA   ss   55 199 20 44 8 1 3 19 2 0 14 31 2 1 11 1 7  .221 .278 .317 595
 
Minor League Totals - 4 Season(s) 385 1385 208 364 74 7 25 165 32 10 184 223 28 3 38 18 24  .263 .357 .381 738 --

[Cedric]

You might as well try and sign Ozzie Smith if you want Janish out there then. That's just amazingly bad.