Is Dunn Better Than Gwynn?

[Oxilon]

I'm not sure if this was ever posted here or not. The article came out in January, so it's been about a month and a half. Anyways, I found it to be interesting and thought it was worth the thread.

---------------------------------------------------------------
Is Dunn Better Than Gwynn?
Adam's Slugging is More Valuable Than Tony's Singles
© Harold Friend

Jan 26, 2008

Adam Dunn is one of baseball's most underrated players, especially by those who refuse to acknowledge modern statistical measurements.
Adam Dunn is one of baseball’s most underrated players, especially by those who refuse to acknowledge modern statistical advancements that have uncovered information not available in the past. Dunn has a .900 OPS compared the league’s .779 OPS. His OPS+ is 130. OPS is defined as on base percentage + slugging, while the league’s OPS is on base + slugging with the pitcher removed and in the same home field as the player. It is a rough guide to a player’s ability to get on base and drive in runs. OPS+ is OPS measured against the league average, and adjusted for ballpark factors. An OPS+ over 100 is better than average while less than 100 is below average.

A Strikeout Is Just An Out
Adam Dunn has been criticized by some for striking out too much. He has averaged 182 strikeouts a season with a career high of 195 in 2004, but when a hitter leads off an inning, a strikeout is just another out. When a hitter makes the third out of an inning, a strikeout is just another out. In almost every instance with a runner or runners on base and less than two outs, a strikeout is preferable to a ground ball because the strikeout will usually avoid the double play. Forget that some ground balls may get through for hits or be hit slowly enough for the batter to beat it out for a hit.

Dunn's Better Numbers
Comparing Adam Dunn to Hall of Fame outfielder Tony Gwynn illustrates Dunn’s greatness. Tony has 3,141 hits and a .338 lifetime average, compared to Dunn’s .248 average, but Tony has an .847 OPS compared to Adam’s .900. Tony has a 132 OPS+ compared to Adam’s 130 – virtually identical and not statistically significant. Tony’s 90 point edge in batting average is more than made up by Adam’s advantage in OPS because runs win games. Batting average is a highly overrated statistic because it merely indicates the chances of a hit when the batter swings. It does not measure avoiding the chances of making an out during an entire at bat (take a walk, hit by pitch)

More Power Than Gwynn
Dunn averages 95 RBIs a season compared to Gwynn’s 76. Dunn’s career high in home runs is 46, he has hit at least 40 home runs the last four seasons, and averages 40 home runs over a 162 game season. Seventeen is Gwynn’s career high in home runs, and he averaged a mere 9 home runs over a 162 game season.

When it comes to slugging, there is no comparison. Dunn’s slugging average is .519 while the league has a .436 slugging average. Gywnn’s slugging average of .459 is 50 points LOWER than Dunn’s, and is only somewhat greater than the league’s .399. It is recognized that OPS takes slugging into account, but raw data can be revealing, and that is the case in with Dunn and Gwynn.

More Valuable Than Tony
Those who claim Gwynn is vastly more valuable than Dunn point out that Tony averaged only 29 strikeouts a season, but that merely brings us back to the fact that a strikeout is just another out. Tony walked about 52 times a season while Dunn averaged 112 walks. Pitchers don’t like to give up hits, but they do not fear singles. They fear what Dunn hit – home runs, and they are very careful when facing Adam Dunn. The fact that Gwynn stole 21 bases a season compared to Dunn’s 9 is a negative for Gwynn because it is counterproductive to risk giving up outs by trying to steal bases.

Hall of Fame?
Tony Gwynn was a fine player, but the day when his type of player was considered among the most valuable in baseball have passed. Not striking out, stealing bases, hitting singles, and having a high batting average are overrated. The greatness and value of the Adam Dunn type of player is finally being recognized, thanks to the statistical evaluation of baseball players. Five years after he retires, the Hall of Fame will call Adam Dunn.

http://major-league-baseball.suite10...ter_than_gwynn

[mlbfan30]

Through age 27..

BA OBP SLG OPS+
.335 .392 .444 133
.248 .381 .519 130

WARP3
G-44.9
D-35.9

EQR - Equivalent Runs
G - 535
D - 625

Basically, Gwynn is better mainly because of defense. The hitting is pretty close and it can go either way depending on perspective. But Defense is not even close at this point in their careers.

[tommycash]

I took a look at some different things on Baseball-Reference.com and came out with this information. Here is Tony Gwynn's Career Averages:
617 AB; 92 R; 209 H; 36 2B; 6 3B; 9 HR; 76 RBI; 21 SB; 52 BB; 29 SO; .338 AVG; .389 OBP;
.459 SLG; 132 OPS; 283 TB

Adam Dunn's Career Avg:
558 AB; 103 R; 139 H; 30 2B; 1 3B; 40 HR; 95 RBI; 9 SB; 112 BB; 182 SO; .248 AVG; .381 OBP; .519 SLG; 130 OPS; 290 TB

Tony Gwynn's Career Highs:
642 AB; 119 R; 220 H; 49 2B; 13 3B; 17 HR; 119 RBI; 56 SB; 82 BB; 40 SO; .394 AVG; .454 OBP; ..568 SLG; 169 OPS; 324 TB

Adam Dunn's Career Highs:
568 AB; 107 R; 151 H; 35 2B; 2 3B; 46 HR; 106 RBI; 19 SB; 128 BB; 195 SO; .266 AVG; .400 OBP; .578 SLG; 146 OPS; 323 TB

Maybe Dunn is more valuable in fantasy baseball, and I am a Dunn fan. The argument that an out is an out is totally wrong. A strikeout gives your team no chance to advance runners or cause the other team to make an error. Ask any manager or coach who they would want up with 2 outs and they would all say Gwynn. Plus you can't always compare runs. Gwynn played in an era where the home run was a non-factor. He only played with 3 guys that hit 40 or more home runs in a season (Greg Vaughn 1 year, Ken Caminiti 1 year, and Fred McGriff 1 year). He did what you are supposed to do. Get on, move over and get hit in. It is not his fault if he did not get hit in. Plus he was a #2 hitter, not a power hitting middle of the lineup guy like Dunn. I will agree that Dunn has been run down a lot for striking out too much, but to say he is better than Gwynn is going to far. And now that Dunn makes over $10 million, can we stop saying he is underrated?

[GoReds33]

IMO, no. Dunn has not accomplished what Gwynn has, and to this point hasn't put up HOF numbers like Gwynn has. I think that Dunn could end up in the HOF though, and also could be as good, if not better than Gwynn.

[redsfanmia]

Comparing apples to oranges these two are completely different players.

[TN Red Fan]

Well, my guess is Dunn will draw more walks as the #5 hitter, than Gwynn would as the #2 hitter.

You don't put somebody on base when the heart of the order is coming up, but you'll gladly walk a power hitter knowing you facing 6, 7, and 8.

So my point is, if Gwynn batted 5th like Dunn does, his OBP would be higher.

[EddieMilner]

To me, this is a flawed argument for a couple of reasons:
1. It introduces RBIs as an argument, and as any saber guy knows, RBIs are based on how people in front of you hit. Seems that the author is picking and choosing which argument on RBIs to use based on which best suits his point.
2. They completely ignore that OBP for the argument as well. And this is a flaw because Tony's job (as a top of the order hitter) was to get on base so he could give his team a better chance of scoring runs. Adam Dunn's job as a power hitter, is to drive in the top of the order hitters (I am assuming that Dunn is not batting 2nd).

I like Adam Dunn very much, but I understand what he is as well. He shouldn't be a savior for any team, he is a great piece (if used correctly) to building a contender. If the Reds use Dunn at the top of the order, his job should be to get on base and score runs (I am completely fine with him walking in this instance). If the Reds use Dunn as a middle of the order batter, his goal should be to knock base runners in. Hitting into an inning ending double play<Walking<Sacrifice Fly to Score a Run< getting a hit and scoring runs.

I feel there is a great middle ground of thought which understands Saber, but also understands old school baseball. I know getting on base is extremely important to a baseball teams success. However, the complete disregard for speed as an important tool for a ball player is ridiculous. Having a speedy guy on first can make a single a run. A good base stealer can remove the threat of a double play even coming into play. And that is where I feel statistical methods are failing, when they ignore speed. There is not way to figure out how an inning would have ended if a slower person was on base, but simply ignoring speed as a needed skill is making an over simplifying assumption because it is not understood how it contributes.

all of that was my opinion - If I stated anything as fact, it was not intended that way. And no i do not think a fast runner that only gets on base a sub .300 clip should be a lead off hitter, so leave that argument at home.

[tommycash]

To me, this is a flawed argument for a couple of reasons:
1. It introduces RBIs as an argument, and as any saber guy knows, RBIs are based on how people in front of you hit. Seems that the author is picking and choosing which argument on RBIs to use based on which best suits his point.
2. They completely ignore that OBP for the argument as well. And this is a flaw because Tony's job (as a top of the order hitter) was to get on base so he could give his team a better chance of scoring runs. Adam Dunn's job as a power hitter, is to drive in the top of the order hitters (I am assuming that Dunn is not batting 2nd).

I like Adam Dunn very much, but I understand what he is as well. He shouldn't be a savior for any team, he is a great piece (if used correctly) to building a contender. If the Reds use Dunn at the top of the order, his job should be to get on base and score runs (I am completely fine with him walking in this instance). If the Reds use Dunn as a middle of the order batter, his goal should be to knock base runners in. Hitting into an inning ending double play<Walking<Sacrifice Fly to Score a Run< getting a hit and scoring runs.

I feel there is a great middle ground of thought which understands Saber, but also understands old school baseball. I know getting on base is extremely important to a baseball teams success. However, the complete disregard for speed as an important tool for a ball player is ridiculous. Having a speedy guy on first can make a single a run. A good base stealer can remove the threat of a double play even coming into play. And that is where I feel statistical methods are failing, when they ignore speed. There is not way to figure out how an inning would have ended if a slower person was on base, but simply ignoring speed as a needed skill is making an over simplifying assumption because it is not understood how it contributes.

all of that was my opinion - If I stated anything as fact, it was not intended that way. And no i do not think a fast runner that only gets on base a sub .300 clip should be a lead off hitter, so leave that argument at home.

I couldn't agree more. Also, I think that using OPS as a stat is also not very accurate. If OPS were a measurement of the best, then Dunn is better than Rose, Perez, Morgan, and Bench. And I hope no one is making these arguments yet.

[UGADaddy]

Comparing apples to oranges these two are completely different players.

Agreed. Two different batting order positions, two different eras, two different players.

Also, good points above:
- the article did not take into account OBP
- an strikeout is not just another out

Is there a stat out there to compare OBPs with two outs or with RISP or in the final three innings with game within 3 runs?? I'd like to see how AD stacks up in those categories--to Jeff Conine, much less Tony Gwynn...

[mlbfan30]

People who don't understand SABR assume we don't value speed or a bunch of other things. But to pick on speed, that's simply not true. Baserunning is something you pointed out, but baserunning just isn't a huge aspect of a hitters value. The difference between the very best and the very worst baserunner (not SB) is about 10 runs a year, which translates to a win. Things that constitute baserunning are things like 1st to 3rd, scoring on a single from 2nd, scoring on sac fly, etc. Usually, the majority of players are bunch in a very small range, something like 5 runs difference. It wouldn't be worth it to pick bruce over patterson for baserunning purposes when the difference in offense is much greater than the difference in baserunning. Stealing is an entirely different aspect, and for an out to be worth it, SB rates need to be around 73&#37;. Anything less and the hitter is hurting it's team by trying to steal. An out is a lot worse than an extra base gained. When people have very nice SB rates, like Raines, and also steal a lot, like Raines, that's when basestealing helps.

Basically, base stealing is good as long as it's above 0 value. If you have a guy like Freel who gets picked off and had a 65% SB% last year, he hurts you. If you have a guy like Crawford who has a career 82 SB%, that's good and helps. Overall though, speed has a limit as to how much it helps the team. It's worth maybe 10 runs or so above average at the top limit. But playing a hitter that produces 0 value hitting, and all its value from speed, over a very strong hitter but average runner isn't usually worth it. From a franchise point of view... a leg injury or even aging for that speed guy is going to totally eliminate any value he has, but a hitter is still going to hit.

One thing I hate is that people just dismiss SABR, telling the audience what SABR think. These people don't understand SABR thinking and are biased against it, so obviously they are going to say bad (and untruthful) things.


There is not way to figure out how an inning would have ended if a slower person was on base, but simply ignoring speed as a needed skill is making an over simplifying assumption because it is not understood how it contributes.

Something like that... that stuff is taken into account. Many methods look at how actual games were played. It takes every single game of every single year and determines the value of each single occurence. A number might a SB with 0 out and man on 1st is worth .27 Runs, but with 2 out worth .11 runs. The final number say a SB is worth .195 Runs. That .195 is the average among all occurrences but each individual occurrence is taken into account.

Take a look at this chat....

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html

And see how intuitive it is. People say SABR people don't like bunts, and for the most part they are negative value. But in some cases they are good. The value of outs change depending on the situation. Everything changes. This IS the "intangibles" aspect of SABR.

[Boston Red]

The fact that Gwynn stole 21 bases a season compared to Dunn’s 9 is a negative for Gwynn because it is counterproductive to risk giving up outs by trying to steal bases.

I guess Rickey Henderson is one of the worst players of all time.

[mlbfan30]

I guess Rickey Henderson is one of the worst players of all time.

See... this is another aspect where people assume SABR people think stealing is just bad. Stealing is GOOD IF he attains a certain percentage...

Gywnn has a career SB % of 71%
Rickey has a career SB % of 80%
Dunn has a career SB % of 76

Thats a HUGE difference. And this doesn't include baserunning which is totally separate.

According to the chart, Gwynn has gained 5.2 Runs over his career by stealing.
According to the chart, Rickey has gained 121.4 Runs over his career by stealing.
According to the chart, Dunn has gained 8.2 Runs over his career by stealing.

Basically this tells us Gwynn was a horrible basestealer.

Rickey was worth an extra 12 Wins over his career from just simply stealing bases. That's amazing. SABR guys love him BECAUSE of his amazing SB rates and his ability to still steal so many bases.

[tommycash]

Actually Dunn 75 attempts at stealing according to Baseball-reference.com. Gwynn has a 71&#37; with 444 attempts. Lets not compare these numbers as Gwynn has way more attempts. And for a #2 batter with a high .avg like Gwynn, I will take his 71%. The whole argument is that Dunn is equal to or better than Gwynn, and I just don't think he is close yet. Can he get there? No. I don't think they should be compared. I would rather compare George Foster and Dave Parker with Dunn at this moment. Lets compare middle of the lineup guys with other middle of the lineup guys. I will say this, with the game on the line, who would you want to hit? Dunn OR Gwynn?

[Boston Red]

See... this is another aspect where people assume SABR people think stealing is just bad. Stealing is GOOD IF he attains a certain percentage...

I was just responding to the author's contention that stealing extra bases was a negative. If he'd have added the explanation you did, his words wouldn't have looked so idiotic.

[mlbfan30]

Actually Dunn has a stolen base &#37; of 67 according to Baseball-reference.com with only 28 steal attempts. Gwynn has a 71% with 444 attempts. Lets not compare these numbers as Gwynn has way more attempts. And for a #2 batter with a high .avg like Gwynn, I will take his 71%. The whole argument is that Dunn is equal to or better than Gwynn, and I just don't think he is close yet. Can he get there? No. I don't think they should be compared. I would rather compare George Foster and Dave Parker with Dunn at this moment. Lets compare middle of the lineup guys with other middle of the lineup guys. I will say this, with the game on the line, who would you want to hit? Dunn OR Gwynn?

It's 76% with 75 SB attempts. Check again. Did you know Dunn has 57 SB in his career? That's the same as scrappy #2 hitter Polanco who has a 67SB%. Gwynn is an average basestealer. 71% is not good for anyone. Him being mostly a singles hitter makes it worse since him trying to steal basically had 0 value over his career. Does it kill you to realize that Dunn, that slow middle of the order hitter, is a better basestealer than that 2nd scrappy hitter, Gwynn? The numbers prove it.

One of the main goals of SABR is to compare hitters, whether leadoff or 4th. They deduce a value for everything that happens in baseball and assign a neutral unit like Runs. These 2 players can be compared. As I said before, at THIS POINT, age 27 season, both of these players are about the same in hitting. The difference is in fielding.

With the game on the line... as in what? A man on 2nd? Gywnn. Down by 1 with a man on second? Dunn.
Going by SABR, we'd look at each outcome by each player in each situation. It needs to be a lot more specific than... on the line. Say a runner on 1st... Gywnn mostly hits singles so he wouldnt score the run. Dunn might BB or get an XBH. In that case that XBH wins the game and SLG is more important.