Cueto and Volquez move into the "spring training" starting rotation

[flyer85]

I think Belisle, while he has struggled in the spring(bad because he has no history with Dusty), has more upside than Fogg. I have no idea how this one will play out.

[REDREAD]

Because they didn't stretch him out to 177 innings last year for no reason. Belisle hit a bump today. Fogg's bump has been his entire career. If Belisle pitches his way to the 5th spot in the rotation, he's still better than most teams #5 guy. I think there is an actual plan in place, one that probably sees Belisle and to a lesser extent Arroyo as bridges to the young guys in the long term eventually all four of Maloney Cueto Volquez and Bailey could be starters on this team. I think all four will get starts this year.

I don't know. Belisle was a starter last year out of necessity. There was a shortage of bodies. He wasn't the worst guy we ran out there, but he certainly wasn't inspiring either.

Fogg was better than Matt last year in HR/IP. Batting average against, and ERA, despite playing in Coors. About the only metric Matt beat Fogg in was Whip. (Based on my casual analysis).

It's hard to say because Matt only got about 120 IP in 2005 + 2006, but he seemed to do better out of the pen those years than he did last year. And IIRC, he had injury issues in 2005-6, but still pitched better out of the pen.

I think Matt might be more valuable in the pen.. that's all I'm saying.
Fogg is still better than most teams #5. Although, I guess technically the kids would be slotted at the end of the rotation.

[REDREAD]

I think Belisle, while he has struggled in the spring(bad because he has no history with Dusty), has more upside than Fogg. I have no idea how this one will play out.

I hope so, but the guy is already 27 and has had lingering injury problems. I'd love for him to be a success story, but he's only 1 year younger than Patterson, whom most people don't consider to have upside.

Matt's coming off a 5.32 ERA season. Fogg really did outpitch him last year.

[Matt700wlw]

I'd have no problem with Belisle out of the bullpen...I've been saying that forever. He reminds me of Lohse (except he's not a head case)...he's got the stuff to be very good, but doesn't have the makeup to handle it, mentally.

In the bullpen, he'd be a guy I use for an inning or two, and I'd start him at the beginning of the inning, not bring him in for high pressure situations.

[flyer85]

I hope so, but the guy is already 27 and has had lingering injury problems.

his upside isn't much, it's just that Fogg has no upside. Matt has a higher K rate and his stuff is better. Doesn't mean he will pitch better but with Belisle I believe he could be better than Fogg but there really isn't a lot of difference between the two.

[TRF]

I hope so, but the guy is already 27 and has had lingering injury problems. I'd love for him to be a success story, but he's only 1 year younger than Patterson, whom most people don't consider to have upside.

Matt's coming off a 5.32 ERA season. Fogg really did outpitch him last year.

He's a year older than Harang and on a very similar development path. I'm notr saying he'll make the same leap Aaron did, but he could do it.

[paulrichjr]

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog...name=neyer_rob

Young arms the key for Reds
posted: Friday, March 14, 2008 | Feedback | Print Entry

Apparently the talk of Reds camp is Johnny Cueto, who tossed four shutout innings against the Phillies on Wednesday. How well has he pitched this spring? From MLB.com:

Through three games, including one start, Cueto has a 1.00 ERA and eight strikeouts in nine innings with just one walk. He has continued to set the bar high in his competition for a rotation spot against Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, Matt Belisle, Josh Fogg and Jeremy Affeldt.

Just to be clear, there's more than one rotation spot up for grabs. The top two slots are set, with Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. But after them the rotation is wide open. Or should be. In 37 career starts, Belisle's ERA is 5.11. In 179 career starts, Fogg's ERA is 4.93. In 42 career starts, Affeldt's ERA is 5.41.

Belisle's a holdover. Fogg and Affeldt were both signed as starters, presumably to take some pressure off the kids. But frankly, none of those guys has any business starting regularly for a good team, and the Reds have a chance to be pretty good.

Nobody talks about this, but in this sense the Reds are just like the Yankees: they'll go exactly as far as their talented young starters take them. Obviously, it's unfair to expect Cueto, Bailey and Volquez to start 30 games apiece and finish the season as Rookie of the Year candidates. But all three of the kids have more talent in their little fingers than those three veterans have in their whole pitching arms. They're why this year's Reds might be last year's Rockies.

[Spring~Fields]

It's not really a bad idea and it's something worth considering. But Homer seems to have more trouble with runners on base and more often than not he'll be coming in with runners on base if he's pitching out of the pen. I don't know if the Reds are going to be too keen about setting him up to fail like that. Of course he couldn't do any worse than Majewski. Plus he can work on that runners on base thing out of the bullpen where there's less pressure.

I think that it is in his head and would like to see him placed in situations such as relief that force him to throw strikes and get over it. I would also like to see him taken out of the spot light and taken out of trying to make the big leagues, become just one of the pitchers, one of the players nothing special, just a guy doing his job and see if he starts pitching better.

I think that they could get him mentally right out of the bullpen for a season.

The rest has to come with repetition and experience which isn’t anything in the realm of a short time.

[M2]

I expect today will be Homer Bailey's last ST start for the big league club. Affeldt might get a start on Tuesday, but he's got to be out of the running for the rotation too.

That leaves Belisle, Cueto, Fogg and Volquez (listed alphabetically, not in any order of preference) for the 3-5 slots.

Meanwhile, Jared Burton is looking far from a sure thing in the bullpen and that could throw open another pitching slot for someone.

[Redhook]

I expect today will be Homer Bailey's last ST start for the big league club. Affeldt might get a start on Tuesday, but he's got to be out of the running for the rotation too.

That leaves Belisle, Cueto, Fogg and Volquez (listed alphabetically, not in any order of preference) for the 3-5 slots.

Meanwhile, Jared Burton is looking far from a sure thing in the bullpen and that could throw open another pitching slot for someone.

I hope you're right about Homer and Affeldt. It's time to announce Homer will start in AAA and Affeldt will join the bullpen.

I'm pretty happy that Belisle, Cueto, Fogg and Volquez are battling for the last 3 rotation spots. This bodes well for the Reds. I hope it's really Belisle vs. Fogg for the last spot, but the Reds will definitely need all 4 of these guys at some point this year. For the first time since 1990, unless I forgot a year, I'm pretty optimistic about the Reds starting rotation.

I believe this team will win more than what they're projected to. I'm thinking in the neighborhood of 87 wins.

[mth123]

It's time to announce Homer will start in AAA and Affeldt will join the bullpen.

It really is time. By the time this turn through the rotation is done, there will only be about 10 days left. Time to start setting the rotation and getting 6 or 7 innings from the 5 starters. I'd say the off day on the 19th is probably a good transition point. Only 10 spring games left after that.

It's also time to step up efforts to move a few guys to add an upgrade in the Bullpen.

[OnBaseMachine]

I wouldn't officially announce it yet, but Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto would be my No. 3 and 4 starters and Belisle my number 5 starter.

[*BaseClogger*]

I wouldn't officially announce it yet, but Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto would be my No. 3 and 4 starters and Belisle my number 5 starter.

why would Belisle be your #5 when you could skip one of the young guys out of the #5 in April to control their innings?

[Spring~Fields]

It's not really a bad idea and it's something worth considering. But Homer seems to have more trouble with runners on base and more often than not he'll be coming in with runners on base if he's pitching out of the pen. I don't know if the Reds are going to be too keen about setting him up to fail like that. Of course he couldn't do any worse than Majewski. Plus he can work on that runners on base thing out of the bullpen where there's less pressure.

After reading this below if it is accurate, I agree with what you have written here and in the game thread even more. More time seasoning at such a young age won’t hurt him or the Reds.

“a club official told the Dayton Daily News that Bailey is minor-league material.”

“He said Bailey needs to accumulate innings, develop his off-speed pitches, work to become more efficient (fewer balls, more strikes) and work on his attitude.”

http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/con...608redsb1.html

[*BaseClogger*]

haha I think it's funny people keep bringing up Bailey's 'attitude.' His attitude wouldn't matter one bit if he was blowing smoke by major league hitters...