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Thread: Jonathan Mayo ranks Reds system as 4th best

  1. #16
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Jonathan Mayo ranks Reds system as 4th best

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I remeber getting smacked around for saying Guardado was a mirage for his 2 weeks worth of work before getting DL'd.

    Castro hasn't really done great with the stick at any level, I'd have him repeat High A this year. He's young, let him earn the trip to AA.
    You would send a dude back to high A after hitting for a .318 batting average there the year before?

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  3. #17
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    Re: Jonathan Mayo ranks Reds system as 4th best

    At age 20? Since he never dominated a single level before that, and his OBP was almost completely hit driven? Yep. 11 BB's in over 300 AB's? Yep. A sub .400 SLG? Yep.

    Sarasota bound for me. In 400 AB's at low A he had a sub .300 OBP.

    Hell yes I'd have him repeat High A. You wouldn't?
    Suck it up cupcake.

  4. #18
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    Re: Jonathan Mayo ranks Reds system as 4th best

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    At age 20? Since he never dominated a single level before that, and his OBP was almost completely hit driven? Yep. 11 BB's in over 300 AB's? Yep. A sub .400 SLG? Yep.

    Sarasota bound for me. In 400 AB's at low A he had a sub .300 OBP.

    Hell yes I'd have him repeat High A. You wouldn't?
    You are expecting someone to develop power with a body that isn't likely to develop power, even if he plays in High A the rest of his life. There is absolutely no reason to make a dude repeat a level because his .360+ OBP was hit driven because he hit .318. He is a shortstop, not a first baseman. Its also the FSL. Lots of peoples slugging percentages dip big time in that league.

    As for his low A stuff.... last year the Mets let him go back to switch hitting, which they took him away from. It paid off BIG time for him.

    He went from hitting .217 against RHP (in nearly all of his time in Low A) last year to hitting .333 this year versus RHP. The difference.... last year he was a righty versus them, this year he was a lefty and he hit them pretty well. He isn't likely to develop much power, so holding him back because of a lack of power makes no sense. As for his walk rate, well, he is a slap hitting guy with no power to speak of.... why wouldn't guys throw him strikes?

    Seriously, there is no way you make a guy repeat a level after hitting .318 there.

  5. #19
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    Re: Jonathan Mayo ranks Reds system as 4th best

    11 walks in 308 AB's. sorry, but that does not warrant promotion to AA in my book. I don't care too much about the power, though a SLG of about .420 would be nice. But 11 BB's is awful, I don't care what the level is.

    He's 21 right now. Let him start at High A and promote him mid season if he's got his OBP over .350.
    Last edited by TRF; 03-18-2008 at 02:47 PM.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  6. #20
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    Re: Jonathan Mayo ranks Reds system as 4th best

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    11 walks in 308 AB's. sorry, but that does not warrant promotion to AA in my book. I don't care too much about the power, though a SLG of about .420 would be nice. But 11 BB's is awful, I don't care what the level is.

    He's 21 right now. Let him start at High A and promote him mid season if he's got his OBP over .350.
    Except he had an OBP over .350 last year at the same level and now you want him to do it again?

    Not every player gets on base via the walk. Some guys just hit. There are more than 1 way to get things done. If a guy is hitting .318 then getting 20 walks over a full season is alright for a light hitting position.

    I will say though that I am really glad you aren't running the farm system. You don't have a clue why he isn't walking. You don't watch the games. Maybe the guy doesn't walk because he doesn't get many balls thrown to him. He struck out 21 times in 300 at bats last year. So its obvious he doesn't have a strikezone judgment problem. Sure, if he hit .318, walked 11 times and struck out 90 times, then I would have a reason for going maybe we should hold him back.... but he hit .318, walked 11 times and struck out 21 times in over 300 at bats. Its not a strikezone command issue, its a he hits strikes when they are thrown to him. Thats not something you hold someone back for.

  7. #21
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    Re: Jonathan Mayo ranks Reds system as 4th best

    ya know, we disagree on a number of things. I have yet to get overly snarky with you, but I'm starting to see why guys like steel get so... cross with you. It isn't just this either, bailey, stubbs, cueto. if ANYONE disagrees with you on anything you put them down severely and try and make it look like they are stupid in the process. nice.

    Simply put on Castro, even if his glove were major league ready right now, he's got a weak bat, he's very young, and he only had 300 AB's at high A with and additional 54 AB's at AA. he was atrocious at low A, and I really don't know why but as you seem plugged in to EVERY minor league system I guess you do.

    BTW I am glad I'm not running the farm system too. You don't mind if I follow it though do you? cuz if that's a problem for you, I can just watch the big league club. Then you can discuss the upside of Stubbs with yourself in the mirror.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  8. #22
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    Re: Jonathan Mayo ranks Reds system as 4th best

    I don't always agree with Doug, but I do this time. I think when you look at his BB/K ratio with Castro's BA in mind, I don't see why you don't promote him to the next level. I think he's earned it. If he is that bad, send him back, but I think he's ready for the next level based on his bat (and his glove seems to be quite good).

  9. #23
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    Re: Jonathan Mayo ranks Reds system as 4th best

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    ya know, we disagree on a number of things. I have yet to get overly snarky with you, but I'm starting to see why guys like steel get so... cross with you. It isn't just this either, bailey, stubbs, cueto. if ANYONE disagrees with you on anything you put them down severely and try and make it look like they are stupid in the process. nice.
    I just can't comprehend the idea of making a guy repeat a level who has one weakness and its hitting for power. You want him to repeat the level and have a .350 OBP before a promotion. Problem is, he did that last year. It doesn't make much sense to me. I don't think I have tried to 'put you down severely'. Your logic just doesn't make sense. You want him to do exactly what he did last year in your example, to promote him this year.

    Simply put on Castro, even if his glove were major league ready right now, he's got a weak bat, he's very young, and he only had 300 AB's at high A with and additional 54 AB's at AA. he was atrocious at low A, and I really don't know why but as you seem plugged in to EVERY minor league system I guess you do.
    He doesn't have a weak bat. He has weak power. There is a difference between the two things. Weak bat is a guy hitting .240/.300/.300. Weak power is a guy hitting .315/.360/.370. His reason for struggles in low A was that the Mets told him to give up switch hitting. He bombed against righties big time, and the majority of his bats came against righties. He then was allowed to go to switch hitting last year and hit them very well.

    BTW I am glad I'm not running the farm system too. You don't mind if I follow it though do you? cuz if that's a problem for you, I can just watch the big league club. Then you can discuss the upside of Stubbs with yourself in the mirror.
    I don't care if you follow it, I just can't see your logic in making him repeat the level so he can post a .350 OBP again, after he did it last year.

  10. #24
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    Re: Jonathan Mayo ranks Reds system as 4th best

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I just can't comprehend the idea of making a guy repeat a level who has one weakness and its hitting for power. You want him to repeat the level and have a .350 OBP before a promotion. Problem is, he did that last year. It doesn't make much sense to me. I don't think I have tried to 'put you down severely'. Your logic just doesn't make sense. You want him to do exactly what he did last year in your example, to promote him this year.


    He doesn't have a weak bat. He has weak power. There is a difference between the two things. Weak bat is a guy hitting .240/.300/.300. Weak power is a guy hitting .315/.360/.370. His reason for struggles in low A was that the Mets told him to give up switch hitting. He bombed against righties big time, and the majority of his bats came against righties. He then was allowed to go to switch hitting last year and hit them very well.



    I don't care if you follow it, I just can't see your logic in making him repeat the level so he can post a .350 OBP again, after he did it last year.
    heh. How's he doing right now?
    Suck it up cupcake.

  11. #25
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    Re: Jonathan Mayo ranks Reds system as 4th best

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    heh. How's he doing right now?
    Honestly, I don't have much of an issue. He is not striking out, has maintained a LD rate he has has through his career and his walk rate is up. The big difference, despite a lower strikeout rate and the same line drive rate, his BABIP is 64 points lower than it was last year. That difference would take him to a .312 with a .355 OBP this year. Give it time, its a long season.

  12. #26
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    Re: Jonathan Mayo ranks Reds system as 4th best

    is three months long enough. This goes to pattern. doug without a doubt, if there is news on a prospect, I want to hear it from you. I know if it comes from you, it's likely true. But you seemingly cannot be objective about Red's prospects. I have no idea why. Stubbs and Bailey are the obvious favorites, but you seem to completely discount performance. Castro did not perform before 2007, and is not performing now, though you insisted he would. You discount Maloney as having much of a future, even though all he does at every level is perform. Meanwhile Bailey has excuse after excuse made for him.

    At some point you have to pull back and realize results matter. For all prospects.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  13. #27
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    Re: Jonathan Mayo ranks Reds system as 4th best

    TRF, no, I don't discount performance. I just happen to look at more than performance, such as why X is performing the way that they are.

    The reason Castro didn't perform before 2007 was he was instructed he was no longer allowed to switch hit by the Mets. In 2007 they allowed him to go back to switch hitting and he performed fine. As for this year, I would suggest his horrid BABIP despite strong line drive rates is a reason for his drop in numbers, although his increased number of grounders likely isn't helping him ether.

    As for Maloney, I never discounted him... I just don't like his odds of being more than a #4/5 starter along the lines of Jeremy Sowers (who also performed all the way and was flat out dominant at times in the box scores despite his lackluster stuff projecting to the majors), but with sligtly better stuff at this point.

    I do enjoy you feeling the need to come call me out though and believing you have my reasoning figured out on everyone. High and mighty of you. I give opinions on probably 70% of the players in our system.... when you do that, you are going to be wrong sometimes. Its the nature of the business.

    For the record I will still take Bailey's career over Maloney's and I don't have to think twice about that one. It won't be close if Bailey can stay healthy.

  14. #28
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    Re: Jonathan Mayo ranks Reds system as 4th best

    doug, i'm not completely calling you out. just a little. note this in my above post.

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    doug without a doubt, if there is news on a prospect, I want to hear it from you. I know if it comes from you, it's likely true.
    And that's the absolute truth. When you are offering news, I look for your posts. You've managed to work your way in somehow, and I'm extremely jealous. I wish I had your proximity.

    I just think you have tunnel vision at times. And your OPINION isn't fact. Neither is mine. I might be wrong about Stubbs. I'm not right now, but I might be in the long run.

    I just think you need to allow for the possibility in your posts bacause you do bring a lot to this board.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  15. #29
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Jonathan Mayo ranks Reds system as 4th best

    Doug has acknowledged multiple times that Stubbs and other prospects might become busts. What he spends a lot of time arguins is that so-and-so player is not a bust yet and might never be.


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