Bailey: Rushed or Not Ready?

[Team Clark]

Just had a thought. (Yes I know, rare occurence)

What is the difference between "rushed" and "not ready"? Is there a difference? If Bailey at his current age and development is right where he is supposed to be then has he been rushed or is he simply not ready?

Is he meeting expectations? Who sets the expectations? Do the expectations dictate whether he was rushed or not? Just curious about thoughts on this.

Personally, I think he is right where he is supposed to be for the number of innings he has thrown, the instruction he has received, his maturity level and his effort. This kid is on the cusp of becoming a legit starter. It's that "cusp" that can be so hard to grasp for so many "phenoms".

[RFS62]

The only time I thought he was rushed was last year when we brought him up.

Up until then, we had exhibited restraint and patience with Homer, IMO.

I think he's doing very well for his age. I don't think he's ready, and there is no blame to assign over that, it's just the way it is in the development of a young pitcher.

[princeton]

he was rushed, because he obviously wasn't ready.

I'm happy to wait. There's so much negative buzz that his potential is surely worth much more to us than what we'd receive from another team.

Krivsky will surrender talent to fill need, however.

[RedsManRick]

I think there is an assumption that players are most likely to develop to their full potential when they are constantly challenged, but not overwhelmed. Rushing a guy is placing him in a situation where he is likely to fail from a performance standpoint due to being developmentally behind the league.

Being "ready" is just a question of whether the guy can move up without being harmed developmentally.

In the case of Bailey, I think he was rushed to the majors in so far as he was asked to perform at a level for which he was not developmentally prepared. That said, in terms of his age, his talent, etc., I think Bailey is fine. A young guy with a lot of talent should be able to progress at a level per year. It's when they slow behind that pace that I worry. 2007 should have been Bailey's "Graduate from AA and get your feet wet in AAA" year. I think he accomplished that. 2008 is his "master AAA and show you're ready for the majors" year.

[Team Clark]

I think there is an assumption that players are most likely to develop to their full potential when they are constantly challenged, but not overwhelmed. Rushing a guy is placing him in a situation where he is likely to fail from a performance standpoint due to being developmentally behind the league.

Being "ready" is just a question of whether the guy can move up without being harmed developmentally.

In the case of Bailey, I think he was rushed to the majors in so far as he was asked to perform at a level for which he was not developmentally prepared. That said, in terms of his age, his talent, etc., I think Bailey is fine. A young guy with a lot of talent should be able to progress at a level per year. It's when they slow behind that pace that I worry. 2007 should have been Bailey's "Graduate from AA and get your feet wet in AAA" year. I think he accomplished that. 2008 is his "master AAA and show you're ready for the majors" year.

That's a pretty darn good response right there!

[OnBaseMachine]

Good post, RFS. I agree with that.

Homer spent the whole season (103.2 innings) in Low-A Dayton in 2005 using Dan O'Brien's piggyback rotation. In 2006 he began the season in High-A Sarasota and spent 70.2 very good innings there before earning a mid-season promotion to Double-A Chattanooga. He spent 68 dominant innings there (1.59 ERA, 6.62 H/9, 10.19 K/9) and the Reds rightfully resisted the push from fans to call him up in the last few weeks of the 2006 season. 2007 came around and he started at AAA Louisville and pitched 58.1 innings with a 2.31 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 3.72 BB/9.

The ERA was nice but the K/9 was down from the year before and his walk rate was up. Ideally you would have liked for him to remain in Louisville and got that strikeout rate up around his career average and the walk rate down under 3.2. He's still only 21 so's he got plenty of time to workout his problems in Louisville. The acquisition of Edinson Volquez and emergence of Johnny Cueto could be the best thing to happen to Homer Bailey.

[RollyInRaleigh]

I think there is an assumption that players are most likely to develop to their full potential when they are constantly challenged, but not overwhelmed. Rushing a guy is placing him in a situation where he is likely to fail from a performance standpoint due to being developmentally behind the league.

Being "ready" is just a question of whether the guy can move up without being harmed developmentally.

In the case of Bailey, I think he was rushed to the majors in so far as he was asked to perform at a level for which he was not developmentally prepared. That said, in terms of his age, his talent, etc., I think Bailey is fine. A young guy with a lot of talent should be able to progress at a level per year. It's when they slow behind that pace that I worry. 2007 should have been Bailey's "Graduate from AA and get your feet wet in AAA" year. I think he accomplished that. 2008 is his "master AAA and show you're ready for the majors" year.

Great post!

[coachw513]

The acquisition of Edinson Volquez and emergence of Johnny Cueto could be the best thing to happen to Homer Bailey.

It was weird/amazing/dumfounding that yesterday Thom and Jeff did not speak the name Homer Bailey once during the telecast (it was shown in relation to the other rotation candidates on a graphic, but that was it, IIRC)...and that was despite the countless discussions to both the young pitching and the overall excitement of the Reds due to the influx of young overall talent in the system...

It both spoke of the here-today, gone-tomorrow mentality of media and our own fan-dom but also the reality that now Homer Bailey can go about becoming a legitimate major league pitcher without the glare and expectation of a desperate franchise looming overhead...

[M2]

he was rushed, because he obviously wasn't ready.

What princeton said.

My take is that we know that not many pitchers thrive as major league starters prior to age 24. You get a few precocious ones here and there. There are those who show up a little early (age 23), but I think an organization needs to build its development plan backward from an age 24 debut.

Most of the time when kids get rushed all it accomplishes, in the long run, is that the organization winds up getting frustrated when the kids stalls.

I'm open to the notion of pushing a kid harder when he's ridiculously dominant, a big hoss who's matured early or if he's got a sick arsenal (e.g. Johnny Cueto). Yet too often what we see is not-ready kids being rushed because they've pitched well.

[Strikes Out Looking]

Why would you expect someone who aced his first year of med school to be ready to practice medicine at the top of his profession? The same is true of Homer.

A little more minor league seasoning won't hurt him--and hopefully, it will be explained to him that it isn't a demotion or a feeling that the team doesn't believe in his talent.

[Always Red]

If Homer was rushed last year, then Johnny Cueto is being rushed this year.

Both have had eerily similar records against minor leaguers, with Cueto certainly showing better control. If Johnny struggles like Homer did last year, I don't hesitate to get him back down to AAA.

Of course, if Cueto pitches like he has been in ST, then he wouldn't have been "rushed", but you can only really know that after the fact. If Homer had been great last year when he was brought up, he wouldn't have been "rushed."

The Reds aren't going to win anything this year, unless they get lucky. They need to have all guns blazing for 2009, and that includes Homer, Cueto and Volquez, to go along with Harang and Arroyo. Unless they swap one of the kids, or Arroyo, for a LH SP.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

He was rushed and still is not ready.

[OnBaseMachine]

The difference between Bailey and Cueto is like night and day. Cueto, unlike Bailey, has great command of three pitches. That will allow Cueto IMO to be a successful major league pitcher from day one, whereas it's going to take a while for Homer.

[MikeS21]

What I think happened was that the major league team was struggling and needed a PR boost beyond the feel good story of Josh Hamilton to keep fan interest going, Homer Bailey seemed to be the obvious answer. Bailey should have been at AA at the beginning of 2007 and allowed to push his way to AAA. Instead, he was put in a no-win situation that he was unprepared for.

The question now becomes how much his experience last year messed with his head. We're hearing rumors from various sources that he doesn't listen very well to coaching.

I agree that Homer Bailey is still young. He needs at least 1-2 more years in the minors. But the sticking point is going to be the learning process he goes through while in the minors. Will he actually learn and improve and refine? Or will he whine and bellyache that he has learned all there is to learn?

If he takes advantage of the learning, he'll make a nice #3 starter behind Cueto and Volquez in a couple years. If he decides to blow off the coaching, then I would tell him not to let the door hit him on the way out.

[Kc61]

The difference between Bailey and Cueto is like night and day. Cueto, unlike Bailey, has great command of three pitches. That will allow Cueto IMO to be a successful major league pitcher from day one, whereas it's going to take a while for Homer.

We'll see, but both Cueto and Bailey are extremely young to succeed in the major leagues. If the Reds had a good starting staff without them, I'm sure both of these guys would be at AAA this year.

Because the Reds have a lack of starters, Cueto probably will get a shot. My hope is that they take it easy with him. Make Cueto the "fifth" starter, have him skip starts occasionally, limit his pitch count. Then maybe this can work.

As for Homer, he is only 21 still, he could spend another 3 seasons at AAA and still be on target age-wise. I'm not upset the Reds took a chance with him last year in an otherwise dismal season, but now there should be no rush to bring him to the majors. Let him learn in due course, have a good year at AAA, and come up when ready.