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Thread: Coffey

  1. #1
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    Coffey

    Wow! I just noticed looking at the box score that Coffey hasn't given up an ER this spring. Wow! I'm just surprised. I don't know his stats, etc., but maybe this trainer and the wait loss will bring him back. What a nice addition to the pen would it be to have him back. Sorry if this posted. Just wanted to make sure all saw this.
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Coffey

    2007 peripherals > losing weight
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Coffey

    He could really help the team with his performance thus far. I respect him for the effort that he has made to turn it around.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Coffey

    The short version is that Coffey allowed a ridiculous number of homers in 2007 -- a number that pretty much is guaranteed to regress significantly. Otherwise, he pitched better in 2007 than in 2006.

    In 2007, Coffey had a .365 BABIP despite a very low 15.7% line drive rate. That sort of line drive rate usually equates to a BABIP under .300. Then, when he allowed fly balls, they turned in to homers at a 26.1% clip. There were only two other guys with 50 IP above 20%.

    How can you explain a very low line drive rate (good contact) with an extremely high HR/FB? Either bad luck or an odd propensity to pitch very well most of the time but with an unusual tendency to serve up a complete meatball with some regularity. I'm guessing both are at play a bit here. He also had bad luck with infield and bunt hits. He's no ace reliever, buy Coffey was bad luck incarnate in 2007.

    If Coffey gets 50 IP in 2008 and maintains his K rate (over 7.00) and BB rate (under 3.5), I'd be shocked to see him allow an ERA over 4.50. I'm glad he's getting in better shape, but any ERA improvement we see in 2008 is more likely due to a natural regression of his HR/FB rate than anything else.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 03-22-2008 at 07:10 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #5
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    Re: Coffey

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    2007 peripherals > losing weight
    I was having a look at those the other day and I was pleasantly surprised by what I saw (7.59 K/9, 2.26 K/BB, 2.15 GB/FB). Until, that is, I came across his HR rate (2.12 HR/9!). Then I saw his absurd HR/FB rate (26.1%!!), and can't imagine how he could give up that high a percentage. I mean sure, he threw his share of meatballs down broadway, but that abnormally high rate makes me think Coffey's in store for a big rebound year this season. He utterly dominates AAA hitters, and he's got the stuff to really upgrade this pen if he can stay away from the long ball.

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    Re: Coffey

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The short version is that Coffey allowed a ridiculous number of homers in 2007 -- a number that pretty much is guaranteed to regress significantly. Otherwise, he pitched better in 2007 than in 2006.

    "Yes, I was quite enjoying the play until the gunshot"

    --Mary Todd Lincoln

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Coffey

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    "Yes, I was quite enjoying the play until the gunshot"

    --Mary Todd Lincoln
    Ah, princeton. If only I were happy living in a world so cut and dry as yours. Where's Rheal Cormier when we need him?
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 03-22-2008 at 07:25 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Coffey

    Coffey pretty much earned his HR rate (right handers torched him for 10 of his 12 homers in '07). His '07 can't just be chucked up to bad luck. Here's why might I argue that:

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Coffey is another interesting case of HR/FB%. While positive swings in "luck/unluck" splits usually suggest a regression to the mean is likely to occur, really poor ones aren't necessarily indicative of bad luck. For instance a pitcher who is done will often have high HR/FB rates, high BABIP and an low LOB% (that trifecta is a sure sign a guy is done actually). There was something up with Coffey last season that informs his BABIP and HR/FB rates (here's my thoughts but reading the whole thread, it's clear others have alternative explanations). We weren't just seeing the effects of bad luck IMHO(because his changed miraculously between the majors and Louisville). That said, he's young and clearly still has his velocity. He could rebound but it'll be due to some change he makes and not a reliance on his luck evening out.
    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Personally, I like Coffey (ducking my head to avoid the rotten vegetables being hurled my direction).

    Last season Coffey killed the competition in Louisville but got beat up in the majors. He's got a plus fastball and based upon f/x data it averaged 94 mph last season with good movement so he apparently didn't lose his sink on it. Not surprisingly, Coffey threw it about 75% of the time (the change up being the bulk of the rest of his pitches). However, despite his velocity being great, f/x data suggests it was his fastball that got crushed by major league hitters last season. For example, his first pitch was a fastball 90% of the time but despite it being a plus fastball, hitters feasted (.500/.514/.667 OPS: 1.180) on Coffey's first pitch.

    So if it's not velocity/movement, the answer would seem to be location. In AAA, a plus fastball and anything close to a major-league quality change (even an average one) could compensate for poor location (especially later in the season when the best hitters have been promoted to the bigs). In the majors, a 94 mph fastball poorly located ends up being omitted from BABIP data....

    Like others have suggested, make a mistake and major league hitters feast.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Coffey

    The other thing, which I pointed out toward the end of last year, was that Coffey gave up way more first pitch hits than before. See this thread....That thread had several interesting notes in it....including a discussion of how his weight had been creeping back up.

    It looked like he was too predictable with fastballs on the first pitch, and batters were loading up and hammering him.

    I was at the game today, and Todd looks much thinner. I realize CTR and others have noted this already, but it is very noticeable.
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Coffey

    Jojo, how do you explain his LD% rate? I understand your argument, but find it odd that his LD% is so low if he's getting feasted upon.

    Also, if we play the "bad luck" card regarding hit rate, we're talking about balls scooting past infielders mediocre IFs, dropping in front of slow-footed corner OF, infield hits, etc. Those are going to show up on the first pitch too. It's not like a .667 SLG is huge on a .500 batting average. That looks like a lot of extra singles with some homers stirred in to me -- not a bunch of extra base hits. His LD% supports that.

    I don't argue the concept behind the control argument you're making (though I'm curious about why you think a guy can get by on poorly located 93 mph fastballs in AAA). A guy who makes mistakes with regularity is going to get hit hard and in some metrics it might appear to be "bad luck". I just don't understand how that explanation accounts for an uptick in K/9 and GB% and an usually high IFH%. I don't understand why he wasn't walking more guys if he had location problems.

    If Todd did have a problem with inconsistent location, that sounds like a mechanical issue that can be addressed rather than some portent of doom. I'm optimistic that between his luck (you can't argue the Reds poor DER), his conditioning, etc. we're going to see a 2008 Coffey that looks a lot more like the 2006 version than the 2007 one. I guess we'll see.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  12. #11
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    Re: Coffey

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Jojo, how do you explain his LD% rate?
    He was lucky.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: Coffey

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post

    How can you explain a very low line drive rate (good contact) with an extremely high HR/FB? Either bad luck or an odd propensity to pitch very well most of the time but with an unusual tendency to serve up a complete meatball with some regularity.
    I think that Coffey's problems is pretty much all mental. He seems to be able to do fine unless under extreme stress in the situation - hence why the closer role wasn't good for him at all.
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    Re: Coffey

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    the closer role wasn't good for him at all.
    it's a good point. I look forward to seeing him in a lesser role.

  15. #14
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    Re: Coffey

    There isn't a bad pitcher in baseball. It's just "bad luck".


    It's bad luck for Reds fans that bad pitchers like Matt Belisle, Todd Coffey, and Elizardo Ramirez can't locate and aren't very good. Bad pitchers have higher babip averages. It's not really that hard of a concept and yet BABIP is so misused here. Good ol Voros McCraken would cringe at the way people here use his stats. They are completely misrepresenting his own statistics.
    If you watched even one inning of Todd Coffey last year you would realize that he had terrible problems in locating during any count. Ross would set up just outside and Coffey would let a fastball tail right into the middle of the plate on a 0-2 pitch. I'm not going to believe in BABIP in that situation. I have MY OWN eyes. Stats like BABIP need to be supplemented with the eye test and Coffey failed by his own admission.

    It gets old fast not being able to debate anything about a pitcher but his BABIP and not debate anything but OPS with a hitter.
    It hurts the overall baseball discussion on this site.
    Last edited by Cedric; 03-23-2008 at 02:20 PM.
    This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.

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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Coffey

    Quote Originally Posted by Cedric View Post
    There isn't a bad pitcher in baseball. It's just "bad luck".


    It's bad luck for Reds fans that bad pitchers like Matt Belisle, Todd Coffey, and Elizardo Ramirez can't locate and aren't very good. Bad pitchers have higher babip averages. It's not really that hard of a concept and yet BABIP is so misused here. Good ol Voros McCraken would cringe at the way people here use his stats. They are completely misrepresenting his own statistics.
    If you watched even one inning of Todd Coffey last year you would realize that he had terrible problems in locating during any count. Ross would set up just outside and Coffey would let a fastball tail right into the middle of the plate on a 0-2 pitch. I'm not going to believe in BABIP in that situation. I have MY OWN eyes. Stats like BABIP need to be supplemented with the eye test and Coffey failed by his own admission.

    It gets old fast not being able to debate anything about a pitcher but his BABIP and not debate anything but OPS with a hitter.
    It hurts the overall baseball discussion on this site.
    Josh Fogg is a bad pitcher.

    Mike Stanton is a bad pitcher.

    Gary Majewski is a bad pitcher.

    I find it hard to debate with someone when their reasoning is their "eyes"... so there. You still haven't explain why if Coffey has trouble locating in any count he can strike so many out and walk so few. I understand that Matt Belisle and Todd Coffey are going to have higher BABIP's than Johan Santana and Jake Peavy, but the gap in their LD% far exceeds the BABIP gap...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."


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