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Thread: J. Fay writes Dunn "deserves" LT Deal (UGH!!)....

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    J. Fay writes Dunn "deserves" LT Deal (UGH!!)....

    Oh Really John?

    John subtitles his column "OF has shown he deserves long-term deal". Then John goes on to make his case for signing Dunn long term. What are John's reasons?

    #1 John writes that Dunn's OPS is annually among the best in baseball. He then goes on to write "He's 22nd in the category among active players. Only three players under age 30 are above him - No. 2 Albert Pujols, No. 14 Miguel Cabrera and No. 20 Mark Teixeira. "

    This is the kind of classic name dropping stuff which has helped to fuel the Adam Dunn overratedness in Cincinnati all along. On a whole it's laughable to put Adam Dunn in the same conversation as Albert Pujols, Cabrera or Teixeira. It misrepresents Dunn's value/contributions as a baseball player to make these types of comparisons implying that Dunn's value in some way approaches the value of these other legitimately great "young" players.

    #2 John writes "Those who value the more traditional numbers - batting average and strikeouts - dislike Dunn. " Again, John implies that those who value more "traditional" numbers focus primarily on batting average and strikeouts. This is absolutely wrong. Traditional numbers/analysis also took into account bases on balls, extra base hits, fielding, speed...etc... all the things that the new one stop shop saber formulas do but just didn't wrap them all up in extra formulas. "Traditionalists" wouldn't like Dunn's low BA and excessive strikeouts but equally important they wouldn't like is overall awful baseball fundamentals/smarts, awful fielding, lack of intensity/urgency in his game, situational struggles, horrible hitting with RISP, horrible bat control and relatively high left fielder salary on a team with a relatively low payroll.

    #3 John writes "I also think the most overlooked stat in baseball is games played." You think so John? You have 25 players on the team. You also have the ability to bring players up from the minors or sign free agents. Which serves the team better to get peak performances from all players 130/140 games a year or have guys out there playing tired, hurt and/or just to accumulate personal stat lines to improve bargaining position for salary negotiations. Check the WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP 1990 Reds roster John and see the "games played" numbers for that group of everyday players (only one player appeared in greater than 150 games).

    John goes on to write: (and this is good stuff)

    "But my argument for keeping Dunn goes beyond numbers. He came to the Reds almost at the exact time I took over the beat in July 2001. He's a guy who always has been liked by everyone who covers the team on a daily basis."

    "Dunn's a stand-up guy. Good game or bad game, he's there to talk. He's funny, self-deprecating - probably to a fault - and unafraid to speak his mind."

    "He's a regular guy - if a regular guy can be 6 feet 6 and 275 pounds, hit the ball 500 feet and make $13 million a year."

    "But, most important, he's become a leader. He'll call out guys. The karaoke event he organized last week was one of the best things the Reds have done for new players in a long time."

    Those John are the extra "intangible" attributes of Dunn which you would base your decsion to sign him on? Those are the extra attributes which you would use to justify making Dunn your highest paid player for the next 5 years and to "build" your team around?

    John says Dunn came to the Reds "almost at the exact time I took over the beat in July 2001". John might be a "nice guy". Dunn might be a "nice guy". Reds have been a sub .500 baseball team for 7 years. You connect the dots.

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  3. #2
    throws 106. NBD.
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    Re: J. Fay writes Dunn "deserves" LT Deal (UGH!!)....

    Yep, Adam Dunn is the reason the Reds have been terrible for 7 years. It has nothing to do with the pitching staffs.

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    Re: J. Fay writes Dunn "deserves" LT Deal (UGH!!)....

    Why not just cut Dunn and let Hopper play center and left?

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    Re: J. Fay writes Dunn "deserves" LT Deal (UGH!!)....

    The Reds scored 783 runs last year, out of that Dunn had 106 RBI's. The guy was directly responsible for almost 14% of the runs the scored by the entire team last year. That is a huge amount of offensive production to just let walk out the door.
    "I have noticed even people who claim everything is predestined, and that we can do nothing to change it, look before they cross the road." Stephen Hawking

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    Re: J. Fay writes Dunn "deserves" LT Deal (UGH!!)....

    i see your point redsfanforlife, even though everyone else is trying to take your comments to the extreme instead of taking them as what they are. Adam Dunn is the best option on this roster right now, but not the best option for a LTC in my opinion.

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    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: J. Fay writes Dunn "deserves" LT Deal (UGH!!)....

    Dunn has far and away been the best offensive player on this team over the last 4 years, and I would love to see him stay in Cincinnati.

    My only hesitation would be, considering his body type, at what point will his decline begin. My guess is keeping him past the age of 32 would be a stretch. So hopefully they can sign him to maybe a 4 year deal, and at worst a 5 year deal.
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

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    Re: J. Fay writes Dunn "deserves" LT Deal (UGH!!)....

    The Reds should sign Adam Dunn to a contract extension.

    Half of you just said, "Exactly."

    The other half just threw down the paper in disgust.

    One caveat here: The Reds should do so only if they can get the deal done for a reasonable amount of money. I know "reasonable amount" is a relative term when talking about baseball contracts, but Dunn is a reasonable guy. My guess is he'd sign for below market value to stay with the Reds.

    http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...L09/803230409/


    I felt this was an important caveat that should be mentioned in Fay's article. Fay is only supporting it if the Reds can sign Dunn for a "reasonable" amount of money. I happen to think Fay is wrong on this, and Dunn would not sign a deal for below market money. What Fay thinks is reasonable, and what Dunn thinks is reasonable; are probably two entirely different things.

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    Re: J. Fay writes Dunn "deserves" LT Deal (UGH!!)....

    Dunn is well worth it. Not only has he been the best offensive player over the last four years there is a good chance Griffey will not be here next year. If they both leave then our offense becomes about the worst in league. I also think that Dunn is starting to take on a leadership role that is great for guys like bruce and votto. Id offer him a deal of 5 year/80 million. A pay raise and long term security for Dunn and a huge bat at a resonable cost for the Reds.

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    Re: J. Fay writes Dunn "deserves" LT Deal (UGH!!)....

    Quote Originally Posted by mroby85 View Post
    i see your point redsfanforlife, even though everyone else is trying to take your comments to the extreme
    Actually he is the one taking his comments to the extreme, pinning the Reds losing for the last 7 years on Dunn is just a little bit extreme.
    "I have noticed even people who claim everything is predestined, and that we can do nothing to change it, look before they cross the road." Stephen Hawking

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    Re: J. Fay writes Dunn "deserves" LT Deal (UGH!!)....

    I've wavered over the past few years on Dunn. He strikes out WAY too often, IMO. Still, I can't help but see his HR/RBI totals as great offensive numbers despite his frequent Ks and lack of sac flies. Now, if we had some assurance that Hamilton would have continued to grow as a player and remain injury-free, I might have kept him and traded Dunn. It's just that Dunn has shown that he can consistently provide power numbers.

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    Re: J. Fay writes Dunn "deserves" LT Deal (UGH!!)....

    I would have no problem at all with Dunn getting a long term deal. Yeah, the strikeouts are big, but so are the power numbers. He is still the best offensive weapon on the team.

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    Re: J. Fay writes Dunn "deserves" LT Deal (UGH!!)....

    OP, you created this thread on the wrong board.

    And for the record, without Dunn, the Reds offense is done.
    I hope it's never sunny in Philly again.

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    Re: J. Fay writes Dunn "deserves" LT Deal (UGH!!)....

    give the man his money....he has earned it!
    Reds fan since 1970

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    Re: J. Fay writes Dunn "deserves" LT Deal (UGH!!)....

    IF we can't afford to pay $13M a year to a LF-er with that type of Production, then IMO we don't have any right to be fielding a team in the Major Leagues.

    We can change our names to the Kansas City Reds - or the Cincinnati Marlins.

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009

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    Re: J. Fay writes Dunn "deserves" LT Deal (UGH!!)....

    Here is my problem with Dunn. While he puts up good stats, he does not perform the role that Reds need him to perform. The big slugger that pitchers are afraid to pitch to.

    That type of money buys you THE guy in your lineup, and Dunn just is not good at being THE guy. With men on base, and with RISP, Dunn is one of the worst in the league at getting a hit. He has a high OBP, but that is mostly through walks. He gets a hit with MOB and RISP around 17% of the time. Most middle lineup guys get a hit around 25% of the time with MOB and RISP. You don't want THE guy getting walks in those situations, you want them to get hits in order to drive the runs in. Walks are great for top of the lineup guys, but not middle.

    Therefore, I say wait until the end of the year. Sign him long term if he is able to become better in those situations, or another Red develops as THE guy, (Phillips, EE, Bruce, Votto?) and hit Dunn second. Otherwise, that money needs to be spent on someone who can be THE guy for the Reds.


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