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Thread: Tough decisions looming for Reds

  1. #61
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Tough decisions looming for Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    We already found out how serious the Reds were winning about this year over the winter.. there were many impact starting pitchers available which the Reds could've gotten, but instead they chose to go with a youth movement.

    It's clearly obvious that they aren't going for it this year by design.

    If they were going for it this year, they would've kept Hamilton and traded prospects for Haren (or another stud starter).

    What they do with Stanton, Mercker and Bray is a minor compared to the opportunites they passed up this offseason.
    Keeping Hamilton and going for it are NOT synonymous. The Reds have tried the great offense route. Hasn't worked. Volquez was the right guy at the right time. Young, dominated three levels last year, comes from the AL. That he's cheap is gravy. Cueto pitched his way into the rotation, and ALL he has EVER done is produce at every level. Belisle was pegged to be the #3, and I firmly believe he'll be in the rotation. Fogg was insurance in case one of the three pitching prospects didn't kick the door down. Volquez was always going to be in the rotation.

    Trading the Farm for Haren was not going to happen, and shouldn't have. The Reds have had highly rated prospects before, but never so many and at such an advanced level.
    Suck it up cupcake.

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  3. #62
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Tough decisions looming for Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Team Clark View Post
    In this instance I have to 100% agree. My question (which is purely hypothetical) is if they knew Mercker or Bray was going to pitch this well and recover from their repsctive injuries would they have brought in Affeldt? I know, I know... Affeldt was brought into be a starter. (BTW, if anyone truly believes that then I have swamp land in Fla for sale.) You have Coutlangus as a decent option behind them in case someone hits the skids.
    I don't think it has to be black and white. I think they brought him to give themselves another possible starter. Their mistaken calculus wasn't about his efficacy as a starter (I doubt they ever had him penciled in -- just going with a numbers approach and figuring worse case they'd get a solid lefty for the pen), but his efficacy as a reliever.

    One thing that I think is not being discussed with Fogg nor Affeldt is the reality that the Rockies were among the best defensive teams in baseball last year (DER of .703) and the Reds were among the worst (DER of .682). That might not seem like a lot, but it means that for every 30 balls in play the Rockies turned in to outs, the Reds only got 29.

    It doesn't sound like a big deal, but it is. It translates in to an ~10% increase in amount of hits given up. Given that he walks a lot of guys, a few extra hits could be a fair bit of damage.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 03-27-2008 at 03:56 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  4. #63
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Tough decisions looming for Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    Affeldt? No reason for him to be anywhere near this franchise at 3M dollars. It's like the Reds mis-judged the offseason auction for talent and then bid higher than they needed to in order to acquire a player they already had.
    Affleldt's signing reveals a few things. First, they have a deficiency when it comes valuating major league talent. Second, Affeldt is really the down side of Krivsky's reliance on scouting. The Reds paid $3M for stuff.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #64
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Tough decisions looming for Reds

    One thing about Affeldt that is not being presented here. He's a LHRP who had a run-of-the-mill-but-at-least-not-horrible season in 2008. None of the other LH relief options can make the claim to anything approaching that low bar level of effectiveness.

    Just reminding everyone that standing pat would have been worse and I'm usually one who hates blowing millions on guys who aren't much better than on hand alternatives. I guess I just lack confidence in the left-overs from 2007. That includes the suddenly-a-Redszone-hero Bill Bray.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  6. #65
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    Re: Tough decisions looming for Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    C. Trent is pimping the idea of 3 catchers on his blog. Reason being is it frees up Javy to be the primary pinch-hitter. He claims Javy is the best PH'er on the team.

    Personally, I'd rather see Bako sent to Louisville as injury insurance and have a legit stick on the bench.


    Javy is a good PH = Castro plays good defense

    No matter how many times people say or type it, it doens't make it true.

  7. #66
    The Lineups stink. KronoRed's Avatar
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    Re: Tough decisions looming for Reds

    I thought Hatterberg was the PH guy on the bench.

    3 catchers and 2 1st basemen? awesome
    Go Gators!


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