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Thread: Dusty and Corey

  1. #1
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
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    Dusty and Corey

    from BP's Joe Sheehan

    Dusty Baker really can screw it all up. Jay Bruce is in Triple-A, while Corey Patterson and his career .298 OBP are slated for the leadoff slot. There are few things you can do to an offense worse than sticking a terrible OBP guy in the #1 hole. That’s what Patterson is, and if the decision to invite him to camp was a good one—he’d make an excellent fourth outfielder—and the decision to start him in center is marginally defensible, the decision to bat him first is just ridiculous.

    The final verdict on the damage Baker might render isn’t in, which makes the next three days critical for Reds fans. The team’s lineups over the past few days are good signs, Patterson aside. Jeff Keppinger and Joey Votto have been starting at shortstop and first base, respectively, which is what the Reds need. Choosing the 1992 Braves (Mike Stanton and Kent Mercker) over Bill Bray for the bullpen isn’t a good decision. Stanton is simply done, while Bray has the kind of live arm that can be a weapon in a situational or full-inning role.

    We can’t completely write off Baker. How he handles Votto’s first bad week, or Keppinger’s playing time once Alex Gonzalez returns, or Edwin Encarnacion, or the young pitchers in his charge once they appear at midseason, will all go into the final evaluation. The potential is there, however, for Baker to once again ride 88-win talent to 84 wins, and be hailed a hero for it.
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    My clutch is broken RichRed's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty and Corey

    The Reds have 88-win talent?
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    Re: Dusty and Corey

    This has been beaten to death: Bruce is not a CF, and even if he could play one tolerably, he's too much to risk out there. Big guys shouldn't run around flagging down balls between Dunn and Griffey.

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    Re: Dusty and Corey

    Joe Sheehan dumping on Baker.... how old can it get?

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    Re: Dusty and Corey

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    Joe Sheehan dumping on Baker.... how old can it get?

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    Member paulrichjr's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty and Corey

    Just curious but how many times has Baker taken 88 win talent teams and turned them into 84 wins? His last year in Chicago? Have you looked at that team? After they spent $1 billion dollars on new talent they still could barely get to .500 in the worst division in baseball. I hated the Baker deal at first but now I really like the guy....April is coming though.
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    Unsolicited Opinions traderumor's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty and Corey

    It is easy enough to dump on Patterson, but if he can put up .320-.330 like he did at his best in Chicago, with the combination of power, speed and plus defense, he will be an asset to the team. I imagine who hits where will work itself out, since I assume Dusty is not the dumbest man on the planet, whereas Sheehan has the opposite assumption.

  9. #8
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Dusty and Corey

    I don't see anybody arguing that hitting Patterson leadoff isn't stupid. It's ok because it's Dusty Baker for some reason. How many runs/wins could that cost the Reds over a whole season? Why does this fact get so downplayed after Joe Sheehan points it out? He must just be in utter shock/disbelief that hitting Corey Patterson is still possible--even the Orioles were smart enough to keep him at the bottom of the order...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Dusty and Corey

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    I don't see anybody arguing that hitting Patterson leadoff isn't stupid. It's ok because it's Dusty Baker for some reason. How many runs/wins could that cost the Reds over a whole season? Why does this fact get so downplayed after Joe Sheehan points it out? He must just be in utter shock/disbelief that hitting Corey Patterson is still possible--even the Orioles were smart enough to keep him at the bottom of the order...
    It's not smart to bat him leadoff, but I'm guessing the number of runs the Reds will lose by hitting him there is much lower than your expectations. I don't get worked up over batting order.

    And anyone who thinks this organization--in any permutation--has 88 wins in it either has had or needs a lobotomy.

  11. #10
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty and Corey

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    It's not smart to bat him leadoff, but I'm guessing the number of runs the Reds will lose by hitting him there is much lower than your expectations. I don't get worked up over batting order.

    And anyone who thinks this organization--in any permutation--has 88 wins in it either has had or needs a lobotomy.
    If he were to put up a .300 OBP and get 600 PA, it's on the order of 15 runs. You do a few odd things like that and suddenly you're giving away 3-4 wins for no good reason.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Dusty and Corey

    The bullpen is by far a bigger issue than anything else. And it's not even close.

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    Re: Dusty and Corey

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    If he were to put up a .300 OBP and get 600 PA, it's on the order of 15 runs. You do a few odd things like that and suddenly you're giving away 3-4 wins for no good reason.
    I'll take a wild guess and say that, against NL Central pitching, Patterson will fairly easily OBP over .300.

  14. #13
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty and Corey

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I'll take a wild guess and say that, against NL Central pitching, Patterson will fairly easily OBP over .300.
    I agree. I envision something like .270/.315/.430 from CPat -- perfect out of the 7 hole...
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  15. #14
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty and Corey

    Lazy stuff in light of a month ago, do us a favor and go check your brackets Joe... you ain't thinking about the right game when you had a deadline for today.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=7153

    The best remaining outfielders are both center fielders, if as disparate a pair as you could find. Corey Patterson, a low-walks, high-strikeouts 28-year-old with good range in center field and excellent base-stealing skills, has not found a home yet. Hey, I’ll be the first to repeat the "OBP is Life, Life is OBP" mantra. However, Patterson, with a career .298 OBP and marks of .314 and .304 the last two years, is about as good a player as you can be with that kind of OBP. He’s stolen 82 bases at an 82 percent clip the last two seasons, he’s a .270 hitter with some pop, and he’s an average to average-plus center fielder. The Braves traded for Mark Kotsay, for crying out loud, and Kotsay hasn’t outplayed Patterson since 2005. The A’s don’t have any center fielder at the moment, nor do the Marlins. The Padres could use a flycatcher (although adding him to Khalil Greene makes it hard to build a lineup). The Twins just threw $5 million at Livan Hernandez, and Patterson has more value than the workhorse.

  16. #15
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Dusty and Corey

    Quote Originally Posted by westofyou View Post
    Lazy stuff in light of a month ago, do us a favor and go check your brackets Joe... you ain't thinking about the right game when you had a deadline for today.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=7153
    In Sheehan's latest, he wasn't raggin' on Patterson's skill set but rather raggin' on how Patterson's skill set might be misused.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner


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