Folks, it's about that time..

[BearcatShane]

With less than 3 days until Opening Day, it's time to get back into baseball mode. I love it. I hate Spring Training, thats not real baseball. Every year a couple days before Opening Day I get really excited and always pick the Reds to win 85+ games. I'm doing the same this year, the difference this year is it actually might happen. Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto are for real. If they can be league average the Reds will play baseball in October. They're going to be league average. My vocabulary is strong enough to describe how good Volquez's changeup is. The bullpen isn't great on paper, but it sure is improved over 2007. Francisco Cordero, yeah, we got the closer everyone was clamoring for, some people are never happy though, you know, the ones who can't believe were paying 12 million dollars for 75 quality innings. We needed a shutdown closer in the worst way. One thing that worries me is Weathers taking a step back, lets hope that doesn't happen. He's key. I also hope Burton's poor spring training will not carry over into the regular season, Weathers and Burton are huge keys to the Reds making the playoffs. If they pitch well along with Cordero, the starters will only need to get us the the 6th or 7th most outings. Jeff Keppinger can rake. He will be a great 2 hitter. I think he's gonna take the shortstop position from Gonzalez. I think Edwin Encarnacion breaks out big time. He sprays line drives all over the place. I could see a 25 homer 100 RBI season out of him. He's gonna have a great career. I like Cory Patterson. Seriously.... If he's batting 7th. Who should lead off? Hmmm. I actually kinda like Keppinger leading off.. but I like him more batting second. How about Votto or Hatteberg depending on who starts? Mute point. "Leading off for the Reds and playing Centerfield, Cory Patterson." Ugh. I like Dusty though. Enough of my babbling, in a nutshell, if the Reds rotation can be solid and the depends on Cueto and Volquez and Weathers and Burton pitch well the Reds are going to the playoffs. If they don't they won't. I love baseball and I love the Reds. Lets get this thing started. I'm ready.


Thoughts?

[Maldez]

The key to this season is the performance of the two young Latino starters, Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto. To be sure, each is oozing with talent, but each is also extremely inexperienced as a starter in the bigs. We don't know how they'll hold up under the glaring lights of a long major league season. A tenuous situation, no doubt, which will probably make or break the Reds 2008 season, but one which will be exciting to follow.

I was more than surprised to see that not only had Corey Patterson made the club, but would be starting on Opening Day in CF. I wasn't feeling real good about this until I looked deeper into Patterson's background and learned about all the tools he has. So many tools, in fact, that he was actually the 3rd player drafted overall coming out of high school.

Cincy has done well in the past with former high draft picks who have gone out of favor with other teams for one reason or another. I'm holding out hope that Patterson be the latest in line to revive his career in a Reds uni.

Looking forward to seeing what this Dusty Baker squad can do. My hopes are high, but my fears many.

[redhawk61]

patterson has all the tools to be a great leadoff hitter. Its just when he first came up he got to infatuated with swinging for the fences and struck out too much halting his progress. He just now is realizing what he's got to do with the skills he has and is starting to be more patient at the plate and hit line drives.
My projected stats

.279 AVG
21 HR
42 SB
65 RBI's
.335 OBP not elite lead off stuff but a lot better than he has been

[Maldez]

patterson has all the tools to be a great leadoff hitter. Its just when he first came up he got to infatuated with swinging for the fences and struck out too much halting his progress. He just now is realizing what he's got to do with the skills he has and is starting to be more patient at the plate and hit line drives.
My projected stats

.279 AVG
21 HR
42 SB
65 RBI's
.335 OBP not elite lead off stuff but a lot better than he has been

Interesting numbers you've come up with. A projected .279 average, huh?....not .280, not .275, but .279. Ditto for HRs. 21? I'm curious what methodology you used.

[redhawk61]

Interesting numbers you've come up with. A projected .279 average, huh?....not .280, not .275, but .279. Ditto for HRs. 21? I'm curious what methodology you used.

The use non rounded numbers to make it look mathmatically based method.

[GoReds33]

Patterson could be the x factor for the Reds this year. We, myself included, have been quick to bash him. Still, he was once a good prospect, with great tools. In a hittter's ballpark, given the chance to play for a manager who he likes, he could have a good year. I don't agree with the 30/30 prediction that was made by an ESPN writer, but Redhawk's prediction of 20/40 sounds good to me.

[Maldez]

The use non rounded numbers to make it look mathmatically based method.

Ah, of course. Where was my head?

In any case, Patterson would be an excellent addition to the team should he finish close to your projections for the year.

[Biggin1985]

I am so excited about opeing day being here as well. I have been looking forward to it since the end of last season. Pitchers and catchers reporting to camp just gets you in the mood a little more and spring training games lets you know, the seasons starting and the Redlegs are playing again.

Anyway, that might have sounded a little bit corny, but I'm so happy right now that season is about to start that I almost have to sit on my hands to keep from clapping all the time. I'm really excited about our starting rotation this year, I think we're going to have a lot to look forward too.

[gedred69]

Ah, the beauty of a new season and the hopes. This team could be surprisingly good. The hope is that Patterson ressurects a career that has to date fallen way short of expectations. Truthfully, I saw him in several ST games, and was not impressed. He dogged on defense in 2 of the games I was at, his arm didn't look all that great as well. (Another discussion). But, I remember the '90 team that picked up a player named Billy Hatcher of similar stature, that exploded in '90, and was stellar in the post-season. Maybe Patterson can be to this team what Hatcher turned out to be then. I'll take that for sure, for sure.

[durl]

I'm ready for Opening Day. I take a vacation day for the Reds first game of the season. Bring it on!!

[yab1112]

I love the begining of the season, but i hate that off-day after opening day. ST is sooo long and then when opening day finally gets here I'm ready for baseball 24/7.

[mlbfan30]

patterson has all the tools to be a great leadoff hitter. Its just when he first came up he got to infatuated with swinging for the fences and struck out too much halting his progress. He just now is realizing what he's got to do with the skills he has and is starting to be more patient at the plate and hit line drives.
My projected stats

.279 AVG
21 HR
42 SB
65 RBI's
.335 OBP not elite lead off stuff but a lot better than he has been

Here is a composite projection based off 7 major projection databases such as marcel, james, pecota, chone, etc.

.261 AVG
13 HR
32 SB
51 RBI's
.301 OBP

This is a lot more realistic based on his career stats. If you believe that a player can suddenly have a career year by reuniting with an old manager, then thats fine. But from a practical view, there is no way your projection is going to happen. The SB could happen, maybe... but it's still really high to project. He hit 13/16/8 HR the last 3 years so a jump to 21 is unlikely. He's had 34/55/43 RBI in the AL, so 65 seems unlikely. The OBP would be a career high, and the AVG the 2nd highest.

20/40 is not going to happen.
15/35 is the realistic best possible projection.

[Rounding Third]

The part about that prediction is the still very low On Base Percentage. But Baker would quickly point to the stolen bases and be happy with a Patterson line of that sort.