Enquirer article on the Reds farm

[OnBaseMachine]

Will they make it big?
Reds have been stockpiling young players, but...
BY JOHN FAY | JFAY@ENQUIRER.COM

Mention the Reds' farm system to general manager Wayne Krivsky, and you're likely to get this response:

It's better. It's deeper. But you could always use more.

Depth is the key to a good farm system. You simply stock as many good players as you can and then sort them out later.

Players often are drafted or signed in their teens. Teams try to project what they'll be four, five, six years down the line.

"Every organization has different philosophies," said Reds player development director Terry Reynolds. "You try to pick out who you think has the highest ceiling based on the tools. When you try to draft for need, you get in trouble."

Projecting what a player will be is tricky.

"Albert Pujols was a 13th-round pick," Reynolds said. "When (the Cardinals) scouted him, he was a big-bodied guy with one tool -- power. All of a sudden, you get him and you're like, 'Oh, my God.' Talk about lucking into a guy."

In the Reds' case, look at third base: The current big-league third baseman, Edwin Encarnacion, is 25, probably entering the peak years of his career. But that hasn't stopped the Reds from stockpiling at the position.

Four players rated among the Reds' top 30 prospects by Baseball America either play third or could end up there: No. 8 Todd Frazier, No. 9 Juan Francisco, No. 22 Adam Rosales and No. 23 Brandon Waring. Francisco and Waring currently are playing third. Frazier and Rosales are shortstops who could end up at third.

Frazier and Francisco are good examples of different routes players take to being prospects.

Frazier was a supplemental first-round draft pick last year, a result of losing free agent Rich Aurilia to the Giants. He had been an All-American at Rutgers and was a polished player when the Reds signed him. Francisco, 20, signed as a 17-year-old. He spent almost two years at the Reds' academy in the Dominican Republic before moving up to the Gulf Coast League.

"The hardest part of that is to evaluate when that young guy is ready to make that next step," Reynolds said. "You don't want to kill their confidence by pushing them too soon.

But you also want to challenge them."

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.d...PT04/303280123

[OnBaseMachine]

THREE (DEVELOPING) PLAYERS TO WATCH

LHP Pedro Viola, 22: He pitched at three levels last year, putting up a 1.42 ERA. He touches 95 mph. He struck out 94 batters in 821/3 innings last year.

SS Jose Castro, 21: Obtained last season from the Mets organization in the trade for Jeff Conine. Very smooth fielder with a strong arm.

RHP Junior Martinez, 21: A Mario Soto project. Threw up to 98 mph when the Reds got him with shaky control; he has 35 walks and 34 strikeouts in his career.

--John Fay

Junior Martinez...very interesting. That's the first time I've heard anything about him. He obviously has control issues but if Soto likes him then he must have a chance. 98 mph fastball and you have to think he's got a changeup if Soto is working with him. I'll be keeping a close eye on this name throughout the summer.

[dougdirt]

Did Pedro Viola go back in time?

As for Junior Martinez....

DSL numbers don't look too promising. Lots of walks, not a great hit rate (42 in 50.2 innings) for his age compared to the league.... He may have a fastball that is quick, but it doesn't seem he knows where its going at all.

[RDriesenUD]

Did Pedro Viola go back in time?

As for Junior Martinez....

DSL numbers don't look too promising. Lots of walks, not a great hit rate (42 in 50.2 innings) for his age compared to the league.... He may have a fastball that is quick, but it doesn't seem he knows where its going at all.

you know its funny. thats why they have coaching and why kids continue to get older and more mature and practice. funny things happen. you know, like getting better. last i checked, what someone is at 20 or 21 is not what they will be at 28 let alone 24. the same could be said for probably the best arm in our system right now who hasn't been able to get to single a yet. thats why stats geeks will never completely take over baseball. will this guy make it? who knows. but im not throwing away guys who throw in the high 90s EVER! but in this day and age, when you are 21 or 22 and not on the verge of aaa you have no shot to some.

[dougdirt]

you know its funny. thats why they have coaching and why kids continue to get older and more mature and practice. funny things happen. you know, like getting better. last i checked, what someone is at 20 or 21 is not what they will be at 28 let alone 24. they same could be said for probably the best arm in our system right now who hasn't been able to get to single a yet. thats why stats geeks will never completely take over baseball. will this guy make it? who knows. but im not throwing away guys who throw in the high 90s EVER! but in this day and age, when you are 21 or 22 and not on the verge of aaa you have no shot to some.

I am just saying don't hold your breath. Guys with more walks than strikeouts at an age quite advanced for a level don't tend to break out enough.

As for the best arm yet to get to single A yet, I am guessing you are referring to Josh Ravin probably. He is 20 years old and has pitched at least against true competition and has shown some success in the past (the year he was drafted). Last year was a rough one control wise for him, but he has shown in the past that he can control his stuff somewhat and do it against semi polished competition.

Martinez on the flip side is facing a bunch of mostly raw teenagers in the DSL and is walking more guys for his career than he is striking out. While I don't have the records for guys in the DSL that go back all too far, the track record of success for such players can't be too good.

Now in no way, shape or form do I want to toss him aside and cut him. Stranger things have happened than this kid finding some control one day, but I am just saying that he seems a lot closer to Jason Neighborgall territory than he does someone like Josh Ravin. I do appreciate Fay going outside the box a little with an 'out of nowhere' name, as his articles are general real fluffy.

[RDriesenUD]

im just saying wait till he is in the states being coached by minor league coaches and instructors. it could be something very simple that they see and fix. or maybe it wont be. but i dont get too caught up in numbers from guys outside of the U.S.A.

[dougdirt]

im just saying what till he is in the states being coached by minor league coaches and instructors. it could be something very simple that they see and fix. or maybe it wont be. but i dont get too caught up in numbers from guys outside of the U.S.A.

I hope the instructors in the DSL Reds Academy aren't that inept that they couldn't spot a simple flaw in his mechanics that lead to very poor control. While I imagine the Reds do have better coaches over here than in the LA academies, I don't think its something overly simple that they are missing. Now obviously it could be, as I doubt any of us have actually seen him pitch. Time will tell and I really hope he gets his stuff under control because that type of velocity doesn't grow on trees.

[RDriesenUD]

i'd hope so too, but you never know. also, maybe he is like Bailey and just doesn't listen well .

[redsof72]

It will be very interesting to see which players the Reds take off the 40 man to open up spots for the non-roster guys who will make the big league roster. It looks like they have to open two spots. There is no one who could go on the 60 day DL, which would open a spot (unless Alex Gonzalez is put on the 60 day). Some possibilities might include Hannigan, Ramirez, Dickerson, Drew Anderson, maybe even Majewski. Not sure what they think of Pelland. It will be a tough call.

For those unfamiliar with the process, you can only have 40 players on the roster at any time and if a non-roster player makes the opening day club, you have to outright someone off the roster to clear a spot for him (if you were at the full 40). A player must clear waivers to be outrighted and if he is claimed, he does NOT have to stay in the majors with the claiming team, he just has to stay on their 40 man. If he clears waivers and is outrighted, you can call him back up at any time (although you would again have to clear a spot on the 40 man to put him back on the 40 man).

Players on the 60 day DL do not count towards your 40 man roster. Bobby Livingston is on the 60 day DL. They will be adding several non-roster players as of Monday, including Cueto, Mercker, Lincoln, Patterson, and apparently Bako. They will be deleting Stanton and they have only 38 on the current roster, so when they add those five, they would be at 42.

It has been a while since the Reds had enough depth in their farm system that this was much of an issue, but they could lose two players that Terry Reynolds would like to keep.

So those trying to predict minor league rosters...hold on...there could be a couple of last minute changes.

[mth123]

As much as I think Majewski is the worst guy on the 40 man roster, I think he's likely to get claimed. I'd guess that Gardner and Anderson have the best chance of passing through waivers.

[TRF]

I wouldn't be overly worried about his hit rate in the DSL. They have a saying there: you hit your way off the island. I tend to think the hitters are a tad more aggressive.