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Thread: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

  1. #1
    Basement-Dwelling Blogger JinAZ's Avatar
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    Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    As I type this, Opening Day is just over 12 hours away. And with it has come Dusty Baker's first official lineup as a Reds manager, courtsey of John Fay:

    Corey Patterson CF
    Jeff Keppinger SS
    Ken Griffey Jr. RF
    Brandon Phillips 2B
    Adam Dunn LF
    Edwin Encarnacion 3B
    Scott Hatteberg 1B
    Javier Valentin C
    Aaron Harang P

    Among the most common (and convincing) critiques of Dusty's managerial skills is his selection of leadoff hitters. Statheads "know" that OBP rules all in the leadoff slot, right? Patterson and his PECOTA-projected 0.313 OBP is therefore an awful choice. Right?

    I'm pretty sure it is. But I'm not positive, and I'd like to know how big of a deal it is. Fortunately, there's an excellent tool that can answer just this kind of question: John Beamer's Markov model from the Hardball Times 2008 Annual. Because it uses Markov Chains (described here), Beamer's model is a much better approach to understanding the dynamic nature of lineup interactions than simple regression equations (like those used in David Pinto's oft-cited lineup tool).

    So, I'd like to set up a Lineup Showdown! To that end, I'm requesting that each of you reply to this post with two lineups:

    1. Your "best" lineup using only Dusty Baker's Opening Day players.
    2. Your "best," lineup with your pick of players from the Reds' organization.


    If you want to submit more or fewer than two lineups (e.g. one vs. righties, one vs. lefties), go ahead. I will take all submitted lineups--along with any others that Baker uses this week--and plug them into Beamer's Markov model, along with 2008 PECOTA projections, and report the results back later this week.

    Markov will tell us, for each lineup:
    1. Its estimate for how many runs it should produce per game.
    2. How many times each batting slot should lead off an inning.
    3. Complete run expectancy frequency matrices for every out base & out state.

    Should be fun! -Justin

    Note: this is cross-posted from my blog, but I'm hoping to get as many submissions as I can. The more I get, the more interesting the results.
    Last edited by JinAZ; 03-31-2008 at 01:53 AM.

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  3. #2
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    Scott Hatteberg 1B
    Jeff Keppinger SS
    Adam Dunn LF
    Edwin Encarnacion 3B
    Ken Griffey Jr. RF
    Brandon Phillips 2B
    Corey Patterson CF
    Javier Valentin C
    Aaron Harang P

    As the Dusty's players

  4. #3
    Basement-Dwelling Blogger JinAZ's Avatar
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    Thanks for this, and for the lineup in your thread! -j

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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    I agree completely with what Baker is using to be honest. Not only that, but I think its such a ridiculously overrated concept switching a guy here or there will suddenly make the team win 10-20 more games or something. Encarnacion had a pretty poor spring, so I might move him down to 7 and move Hatteberg to the 6 spot. That's all I can think of. Since we traded Hamilton, we're missing some of the firepower we could have.

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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    Norris Hopper CF
    Jeff Keppinger SS
    Ken Griffey Jr RF
    Brandon Phillips 2B
    Adam Dunn LF
    Joey Votto 1B
    Edwin Encarnacion 3B
    Javy Valentin C
    -------------------------------
    Ryan Freel 3B
    Jeff Keppinger SS
    Jay Bruce CF
    Ken Griffey RF
    Brandon Phillips 2B
    Adam Dunn LF
    Joey Votto 1B
    David Ross C

  7. #6
    Member DannyB's Avatar
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    Keppinger
    Dunn
    Griffey
    Encarnation
    Votto
    Phillips
    Hopper
    Valentin Dusty
    -------------------------
    Hopper
    Dunn
    Griffey
    Encarnation
    Votto
    Phillips
    Gonzales
    Ross Me
    -----------------------

  8. #7
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    I think 90% or more of us would agree that Dunn needs to be higher in the order and Patterson lower.

  9. #8
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    I can't make a better line-up than Dusty Baker.

  10. #9
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    I think it's foolish to think I could.

  11. #10
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    1. Norris Hopper CF
    2. Jeff Keppinger SS
    3. Ken Griffey Jr. RF
    4. Adam Dunn LF
    5. Brandon Phillips 2B
    6. Joey Votto 1B
    7. Edwin Encarnarcion 3B
    8. Javier Valentin C

  12. #11
    Member OesterPoster's Avatar
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    Dunn is too low, plain and simple. Batting 5th potentially robs him of an extra AB during some games. The same can be said about Hatteberg batting 7th. Your best hitters should be high in the lineup, regardless of whether they're a lefty or righty. I also think the whole lefty-righty-lefty-righty thing is overrated.

    I'd go with:

    Hatteberg
    Keppinger
    Griffey
    Dunn
    Phillips
    Patterson
    Encarnacion
    Valentin
    Harang

  13. #12
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    I would have Votto in there instead of Hatte. Other than that, I think our OD lineup is great (at least until Jay is up).
    SECOND PLACE DOESN'T CONCERN ME

  14. #13
    ZCTRMTP!!!!!
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    Keppinger
    Votto
    Dunn
    Encarnacion
    Griffey
    Phillips
    Ross
    Hopper
    Pitcher

    Rinse. Repeat.

  15. #14
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    For Opening Day I would have:

    Scott Hatteberg 1B
    Adam Dunn
    Ken Griffey Jr. RF
    Brandon Phillips 2B
    Edwin Encarnacion 3B
    LFJeff Keppinger SS
    Javier Valentin C
    Corey Patterson CF
    Aaron Harang P

    I like a guy with speed batting in front of the pitcher.

  16. #15
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    EE batting cleanup, has he even hit the ball yet this spring, let alone enough to be cleanup? I have no doubt he wil find his groove, but dont think I would have him there right now


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