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Thread: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

  1. #16
    Member PickOff's Avatar
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    Keppinger
    Encarnacion
    Dunn
    Griffey
    Phillips
    Hatteberg/Votto
    Patterson
    Catcher
    Pitcher
    Thank goodness for baseball.

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  3. #17
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    I and others on this board might be able to make a better lineup than Dusty, but the managers job is to make out the lineup day after day. Most teams go through 50-60- sometimes over 100 different lineups in a season. Each day the manager changes the lineup due to the pitcher, the stadium, the weather conditions, the health of the players, whether players are hot or cold at the plate, defensive considerations, and many more factors.
    I have a feeling that whatever runs Dusty loses by putting Patterson first or Dunn fitfth, he more than makes up for with his tweaking of the lineup on a daily basis, that us fans, who think we are so smart, would not be able to do nearly as well.

  4. #18
    Basement-Dwelling Blogger JinAZ's Avatar
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    Lots of great lineups here folks! Thanks and keep 'em coming!

    Remember, the first one should be using Dusty Baker's starting eight players (i.e. Hatteberg, not Votto). That way we can get an idea of the effect of juggling lineup slots, not personnel.

    The second lineup is your chance to use any of the players in the Reds' organization. That'll help us understand the effects of juggling personnel.
    -Justin

  5. #19
    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    1. Scott Hatteberg 1st Base
    2. Jeff Keppinger Shortstop
    3. Adam Dunn Left Field
    4. Edwin Encarnacion 3rd Base
    5. Ken Griffey Jr. Right Field
    6. Brandon Phillips 2nd Base
    7. Corey Patterson Centerfield
    8. Javier Valetine Catcher
    9. Aaron Harang Pitcher

    I want Hatteberg leading off because he'll cause Webb to throw a lot of pitches and with a guy like Webb pitching you want him out of the game ASAP.

    Keppinger is a good contact hitter so if you need to have a Hit and Run situation he'll be a good one to use.

    I like Dunn batting third because he's the best power hitter on the Reds and he shouldn't be batting 5th IMO.

    Edwin provides that split in between the two big lefties that a lot of people like to have. He's got some power and good contact so I would like to see him there.

    Griffey bats 5th because he's just not as powerful as Dunn right now.

    Phillips is a free swinger so the 6th spot is a good spot to have him at.

    Patterson might be fast but that won't matter if you can't get on base. Having him and Phillips near each other in the lineup could cause some havoc on the basepath's.

    Javier is probably a better pinch hitter than an everyday player so if Ross was healthy he would be in this spot.
    Most Vottomatic Player

  6. #20
    Basement-Dwelling Blogger JinAZ's Avatar
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I and others on this board might be able to make a better lineup than Dusty, but the managers job is to make out the lineup day after day. Most teams go through 50-60- sometimes over 100 different lineups in a season. Each day the manager changes the lineup due to the pitcher, the stadium, the weather conditions, the health of the players, whether players are hot or cold at the plate, defensive considerations, and many more factors.
    I have a feeling that whatever runs Dusty loses by putting Patterson first or Dunn fitfth, he more than makes up for with his tweaking of the lineup on a daily basis, that us fans, who think we are so smart, would not be able to do nearly as well.
    I don't disagree with this, necessarily, but what I want to study is how much moving players around in the batting order affects the performance of the order as a whole. Granted, there are things this model won't account for (it assumes a league-average pitcher, and that players will perform consistently around their PECOTA projections), but I still think the results are going to be pretty interesting. If there's one thing I've learned from playing with this model thus far, it's that what appear to be small changes to a lineup can make an enormous difference in its performance, and not always in the direct I expect.
    -j

  7. #21
    Member PickOff's Avatar
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I and others on this board might be able to make a better lineup than Dusty, but the managers job is to make out the lineup day after day. Most teams go through 50-60- sometimes over 100 different lineups in a season. Each day the manager changes the lineup due to the pitcher, the stadium, the weather conditions, the health of the players, whether players are hot or cold at the plate, defensive considerations, and many more factors.
    I have a feeling that whatever runs Dusty loses by putting Patterson first or Dunn fitfth, he more than makes up for with his tweaking of the lineup on a daily basis, that us fans, who think we are so smart, would not be able to do nearly as well.

    So, I suppose that all managers over the course of the year are better than non-managers would be at putting together a lineup?
    Thank goodness for baseball.

  8. #22
    Basement-Dwelling Blogger JinAZ's Avatar
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    I figured that I should probably stick my neck out as well. So, this is a lineup that I would probably have proposed using Dusty's Opening Day Eight prior to messing around with this model:

    Encarnacion
    Dunn
    Keppinger
    Griffey
    Hatteberg
    Phillips
    Valentin
    Patterson
    Pitcher

    At this point, from various sources, I've gotten 16 unique lineup submissions, six of which are variants on today's opening day players. I'd like to at least double this number for the study, so keep 'em coming.
    -j

    Edit:
    One more:
    Lineup with my choice of players and decent balance between lefties and righties:
    Votto
    Encarnacion
    Dunn
    Phillips
    Griffey
    Bruce
    Keppinger
    Valentin
    Pitcher
    Last edited by JinAZ; 03-31-2008 at 02:48 PM. Reason: adding second lineup

  9. #23
    ZCTRMTP!!!!!
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    Using today's starting eight I would go with:

    Keppinger
    Hatteberg
    Dunn
    Encarnacion
    Griffey
    Phillips
    Valentin
    Patterson
    Harang

    Rinse. Repeat.

  10. #24
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    Encarnacion has been sucking, in spring training, on the field, and in the lineup. Don't see why people are putting him so high. He needs to start off hot for a change instead of waiting until August to get it together.

  11. #25
    throws 106. NBD.
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    Based on todays starters:

    Hatteberg
    Keppinger
    Griffey
    Dunn
    Phillips
    EdE
    Patterson
    Javy


    Not todays starters:
    Votto
    Keppinger
    Griffey
    Dunn
    Phillips
    Bruce
    EdE
    Ross

  12. #26
    ZCTRMTP!!!!!
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    After today's effort perhaps a greater challenge would to be to come up with a lineup that is not better than Dusty's. :

  13. #27
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    Quote Originally Posted by LouisvilleCARDS View Post
    I agree completely with what Baker is using to be honest. Not only that, but I think its such a ridiculously overrated concept switching a guy here or there will suddenly make the team win 10-20 more games or something. .

    You don't understand, its a ritual here at Red Zoan that who bats 7th and who bats 8th makes the difference between being world champs and finishing behind the Pirates.

    The bottom line- If Cueto, Edison, and the bull pen come through, we'll do fine. If they don't , we won't. And it doesn't make any difference if Dusty bats himself leadoff.

  14. #28
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    SS-Kepp
    1b-Votto
    LF-Dunn
    2B-BP
    RF-JR
    3B-EdE
    CF-Patterson
    C-Javy
    ----------------------
    SS-Keppinger
    CF-Bruce
    LF-Dunn
    2B-BP
    RF-JR
    1B-Votto
    3B-EdE
    C-Javy

  15. #29
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    Quote Originally Posted by PickOff View Post
    So, I suppose that all managers over the course of the year are better than non-managers would be at putting together a lineup?
    Yes. They get paid to do it and we pay to watch them.

  16. #30
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    Re: Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    After today's effort perhaps a greater challenge would to be to come up with a lineup that is not better than Dusty's. :
    It had nothing to do about where people were hitting. Moving Dunn up or Hopper in was not going to make that big of a difference.


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