This is all very simple. Johnny Cueto is closer than Homer Bailey to reaching his respective potential. What's the big difference between them? As a youth, Cueto was throwing lemons instead of baseballs. When life gave Cueto a lemon, he threw a nasty slider. When life gave Bailey a lemon, he turned it into a groin strain.
Cueto has little room for error. Bailey has more room for error hence Bailey doesn't need to be near his ceiling to help the Reds.
well, that's just silly talk. A guy with 3 plus pitches, a history of not walking batters, and outstanding K rates at every step of his development has little room for error.Originally Posted by Aronchis
ok. if you say so. I bet the DBacks disagree.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
The dbacks saw Johnny make ONE error a entire game. That is rare. The point is, Bailey can get away from being a bit wild in the zone because of the plane he throws from. As we saw from his one bad st start, when he is off, he can get shelled quickly.
FWIW, Cueto's "k rates" were 9 k/9. Good but hardly outstanding.
What a ridiculous comment. And it's far from the truth. Very far.
Comparing Bailey and Cueto is really wrong. They have different pitching styles, different body types, different repertoires. Nothing much in fact to compare unless you like comparing apples and oranges. Cueto is simply unusal in that he's capable of commanding his arsenal at such a young age. Bailey is probably a better comparison to Volquez in learning curve and stuff and makeup and he has outperformed Volquez at the same age levels and in his first ML appearances. Yet Volquez has Mercker saying he's even better than Cueto, and players and scouts claiming he's turned the corner and watch out. At Bailey's age he was excoriated for failing when he was rushed to the bigs, looked bad by the numbers last year, too but scouts thought he was on the cusp. Yet Texas, who neded pitching far, far more than offense, traded him. Yes, they got a great talent in Hamilton but still, when your franchise is begging for good pitching it is esentially giving up on a guy to trade him for more offense. I just hope the Reds give Bailey the time he needs to harness his stuff because I think he'll be better than Cueto or Volquez when its all said and done and their careers are viewed in retrospect. Cueto will have the faster start and flashier early numbers but Homer will have a longer career, imo. BTW, Bailey's curve reminds me of Koufax - Sandy got most of his Ks with his curveball which simply buckled batters at he knees. His fastball was good, too but his curve was unbelievable -and Bailey's looks like that when he's on. A bit more consistency with that curve, and a bit better command and Bailey is going to be worth the wait. Imagine if Cueto, Bailey, and Volquez just approach their ceilings with Harang and Arroyo. This could be an incredible staff and I am not giving up on Bailey.
Really? Johnny has hit his ceiling right now. It is a pretty good ceiling. But Bailey is only probably at 50% of what he CAN be able to do.
I mean, I don't see 75% Cueto of the seasons end of 2007 helping the Reds last year. Now a 75% Bailey, sure.
It simple is size and delivery. Cueto is small and has less room over the plane. He has to be good or he gets shelled.
That IMO was his problem in high A starting last year(rather than being a headcase as I thought, happy OBM). He started growing and moving up his percentages/development as the season went along.
Lets say Bailey does the same thing this year. Not only will he dominate AAA(which Cueto wasn't going to) but probably help the Reds in dog days of summer.
Just a note on the two players pitching planes. Baileys average release point last year was 81.1 inches, while Cueto's yesterday was 70.9 inches. Thats nearly a foot in difference in the release point height. Bailey's baseball has a lot more downward plane on the way to the plate than Cueto's does.
It looks like Nostradamus posts on this board, folks.
Again, ridiculous. We saw Bailey last year. He didn't help the Reds, he hurt them. Unless he improves his command, he won't help. His ST was nothing short of awful. Cueto had a fantastic ST marred by one game. It's documented that he always has a 2 game or so stretch at about that time where he experiences a dead arm period.
doug may be a homer for Homer (pun intended) but your anti Cueto rants are borderline obsessive. You called him a headcase last year. Bailey has been labeled one by scouts THIS YEAR.
BTW, Bailey's minor league K rate, 9.85 K/9, Cueto's was 9.26. That isn't a big difference. In fact, their H/9 and HR/9 in the minors are pretty similar. It's that pesky BB/9 where Bailey gets his doors blown off.
And that is why he's in Louisville instead of Cincinnati.
Last edited by TRF; 04-04-2008 at 04:42 PM.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Bailey's in Louisville for 1 big reason and 1 smaller reason:
1.The big reason is to improve his secondary stuff. Cueto has him over a barrell there, no doubt
2.The little reason is just typical seasonal prepping and getting mechanics down. Homer isn't throwing his best and I have NEVER seen him throw overly hard in often in the early season period. In 2006, he was throwing 91-94 in April/May and we had people complain and make threads on it as well during that time on these boards. Once he gets up to 97mph in games, he becomes a much more dangerous pitcher.
Bailey would have made the Reds if he had shown enough development in his secondary stuff minus the heat. He didn't. Once the heat comes on, we hope his secondary stuff improves to so he can really take off. But just doing a good job locating mid-90's heat would be enough for him to help the Reds. That is what we want to see first.
So Bailey needs an extra month of ST? He needs longer to build up his arm strength than "little" Johnny Cueto? Bailey might have 1-2 mph on Cueto, or he might not. He certainly walks a LOT of guys. Did he only do that early in the year?
People weren't complaining that Bailey was at 91-94. They questioned whether he was really ever at 97. You don't get it both ways. If Bailey was at 97 at Chatt, the Cueto was at 96 there. Cueto has been the more successful pitcher because he has command and Bailey doesn't. Yet. But it's similar to asking a hitter to develop more plate discipline. It's hard to cut your BB rate in half. For Bailey to be effective, that is what he has to do. I hope he does, but in the meantime, I'll just watch Cueto dominate major league hitters.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
I've never seen Homer pitch anywhere near 97MPH. I've seen him occasionally go up and grab 95-96, but pitch a whole lot in the 91-93 range. I'm not saying he can't or wasn't doing it before, but why the apparent drop?
Cueto did pitch in the winter.
Bailey has to cut his walk rate in half to be successful? Not even close really. If he cuts his walk rate in half he would have a better walk rate than Aaron Harang. Bailey needs to improve his walk rate but not nearly as much as you make it out to be. As for Bailey ever really being at 97.... yes, he was. Lets hope you are right about Cueto and that dominating big leaguers.People weren't complaining that Bailey was at 91-94. They questioned whether he was really ever at 97. You don't get it both ways. If Bailey was at 97 at Chatt, the Cueto was at 96 there. Cueto has been the more successful pitcher because he has command and Bailey doesn't. Yet. But it's similar to asking a hitter to develop more plate discipline. It's hard to cut your BB rate in half. For Bailey to be effective, that is what he has to do. I hope he does, but in the meantime, I'll just watch Cueto dominate major league hitters.
I'll argue that the homerun Cueto gave up was actually a good pitch. I think Upton was just like, "I don't have a chance against this guy. I'm just going to guess what the next pitch is at the risk of looking stupid."
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