In case you have not seen them, here some web sites that might interest Reds’ fans. One is at
Lately the blog has been asking, “Can you make a better lineup than Dusty? “If you want to submit more or fewer than two lineups (e.g. one vs. righties, one vs. lefties), go ahead. I will take all submitted lineups--along with any others that Baker uses this week--and plug them into Beamer's Markov model, along with 2008 PECOTA projections, and report the results back later this week…Fill in nine players, OBA and Slugging Percentage, then press submit.”
The Markov and PECOTA software will then analyze and spit out how many runs each lineup should produce per game. You can use Dusty’s 9 players and/or (separately) any 9 from the Reds’ organization in your lineup constructions.
You can also get an immediate answer about any lineup you select at another site, Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis, Based on work by Cyril Morong, Ken Arneson and Ryan Armbrust, at http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-b...eupAnalysis.py
According to Baseball Musings, Dusty’s opening day lineup theoretically can produce 4.353 runs per game. Using those same 9 names, Baseball Musings produced at least 30 better lineups than the opening day one, ranging from 4.789 to 4.770 predicted runs scored per game.
Each of those 30 lineups had Harang batting 8th (ala some of Tony LaRussa’s Cardinal lineups); most lineups have a combination of Hatteberg or Keppinger at #9/#1 – hypothetically as table-setters for the “best” hitters on the team who follow.
For example, 4.781 runs are predicted for this lineup: Keppinger, Dunn, Phillips, Griffey, Encarnacion, Valentin, Patterson, Harang, Hatteberg.
Check out those sites.