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View Poll Results: Should Dusty have asked Edwin to bunt tonight?

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  • Yes - All major leaguers should be able to bunt

    14 15.73%
  • No - Never ask a player to bunt when he can't

    75 84.27%
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Thread: Should Dusty have asked Edwin to bunt?

  1. #31
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Should Dusty have asked Edwin to bunt?

    Quote Originally Posted by pedro View Post
    Finally, I think all major league players should be able to bunt.
    Quote Originally Posted by KoryMac5 View Post
    Regardless like many on here I am glad it worked out for the best, and yes all MLB players should know how to bunt.
    Quote Originally Posted by knuckler View Post
    "Yes", every major league player SHOULD be able to bunt.
    Quote Originally Posted by fearofpopvol1 View Post
    I do think he should learn how to bunt though and be able to play small ball if necessary, but this is your run producer.
    To me, the fact that Encarnacion is apparently lousy at bunting is more of an organizational problem than it is an Encarnacion problem.

    Encarnacion has 637 minor league games in his career, 541 of those games coming as a Reds farm player. In those 637 games, he has exactly six sacrifice hits, and only two of those sacrifice hits came as a Reds farm player. His last sacrifice hit was in 2004 for Chattanooga; previously he also had one sacrifice in 2003 in high-A, one sacrifice in 2001 in low-A (Rangers organization), and three sacrifices in 2000 in the GCL (Rangers organization).

    If the expectation is that all MLB hitters should know how to bunt, then the burden is on the organization developing those hitters to effectively teach them how to bunt and develop each hitter as an adept bunter while in the minor leagues. The fact that Encarnacion has exactly two sacrifice hits in over 850 games as a Red (majors and minors) tells me that the Reds did a lousy job teaching him how to bunt ... or possibly did nothing to teach him how to bunt.

    They could have given Encarnacion some instruction to bunt during BP sessions, but frankly attempting to bunt in BP sessions and attempting to bunt off actual live pitching in a game situation are two totally different circumstances.

    It's difficult to fault a player for not possessing a certain skill when that player's organization did an awful job at teaching/instructing that skill to that player.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

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  3. #32
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    Re: Should Dusty have asked Edwin to bunt?

    Quote Originally Posted by knuckler View Post
    The manager has to think more than one step ahead. IF the sacrifice is successful, the Dbacks surely would have walked the next batter (Votto IIRC) to set up the double play.
    Teams typically don't intentionally walk the winning run.

    Back to the topic... I say "no" but not for the reason listed. I'd rather have the game decided by my 6-7 hitters than PHers coming in cold off the bench.

    My buddy, who is Mr. Old School Baseball Guy was suggesting the same thing Cyclone did in the game thread -- double steal. Of course, based on the pickoff play in the first pitch of EE's at bat, the D-Backs had that one sniffed out as well.
    When all is said and done more is said than done.

  4. #33
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Should Dusty have asked Edwin to bunt?

    I voted no but not because EE can't. It's because he shouldn't.

    The only exception, the most deadly play in baseball....the suicide squeeze play.

    EE needs to learn.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #34
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    Re: Should Dusty have asked Edwin to bunt?

    I'm glad that he told him to bunt.

  6. #35
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Should Dusty have asked Edwin to bunt?

    I voted no based primarily on who the Reds coming up in the lineup after him. If he was in the 2 spot and had the meat of the order coming up, it could be considered but not at that area of the lineup. Plus next batter gets walked and then suddenly the Casey/Phillips is in play and bang game over.

  7. #36
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Should Dusty have asked Edwin to bunt?

    No way you bunt there. Why take the bat out of EE's hands with the 7 and 8 batters due up next? Makes no sense whatsoever. Dusty lucked out here

  8. #37
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Should Dusty have asked Edwin to bunt?

    Quote Originally Posted by mbgrayson View Post
    No for all the reasons listed above, and one more:

    Wonky sabermetric fact: Run expectancy with runners on 1st and 2nd, no outs=1.573. Run expectancy with runners on 2nd and 3rd, one out=1.467. This is from "The Book" by Tom Tango, page 17. In essence, you will, on average, score more runs with two on 1st and 2nd and no out.....

    Of course this doesn't account for the particular players involved, it is generic likliehood of scoring runs based on historical analysis.

    When you throw in EE's lack of skill in bunting, and his good RISP, it becomes even more clear.

    Dusty still scares me.....
    While it doesn't control from the batter at the plate, I found this interesting.

    http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expectancy/search

    This is a site that basically does a non-theoretical win probability assessment by situation. Per this little app:

    B9, 1st & 2nd, 0 outs, Home team down 2:
    http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expect...s=0&expectancy[bases]=3&scorediff=-2
    games: 360
    home won: 101
    expectancy: 0.281

    After a successful bunt:
    B9, 2nd & 3rd, 1 out, Home team down 2:
    games: 203
    home won: 62
    expectancy: 0.305

    So, ignoring for a moment the specific players involved, the outcome of successfully sac bunting in that situation inceases your historical odds of winning by 2.4%.

    Of course, when you factor in the chance of ending up bunting in to a double play or getting the lead runner at 3rd (the true judgment should be based on the possible outcomes rather than the desired one), it probably drops the win probability back below the 28.1% state.

    On yet another hand, the alternative against which we should be comparing the bunt option is not the null state, but rather it's opposite, the non-bunt option. Taking the weighted range of possible outcomes if he were to swing away probably gives us a post-AB win expectancy value lower than the pre-AB too.

    It's important to remember in this scenario that run-expectancy isn't what is important. We have to maximize the chances of scoring at least 2 runs that inning. A 1 run inning is just as useless as a 0 run inning at that point. The math changes a little bit. Your average number of runs might go down while your odds of scoring 2 or more goes up.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #38
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Should Dusty have asked Edwin to bunt?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    No way you bunt there. Why take the bat out of EE's hands with the 7 and 8 batters due up next? Makes no sense whatsoever. Dusty lucked out here
    It may have been the 7th and 8th batters but the 7th batter was also Votto. Bako would have been pinch hit for by Valentine to boot.

    I was mixed with the call to bunt. I don't think you do it there but if he grounded into a double play instead of hitting a HR then we are in a complete reverse situation. I think its a good call to bunt if you had Hopper, Freel, Patterson, etc. but with Edwin you let him swing away.

  10. #39
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Should Dusty have asked Edwin to bunt?

    I don't get why you'd ask any player to perform a task of which they possess poor talent. I don't care what the task is, asking a guy who sucks at said task to perform said task is setting up the player for failure.

    I hope The Dusty isn't in the business of setting up our guys for failure.


    That'd be like asking Valentin to tag up from 3rd on a short hit ball to the OF. Hopper or Freel or Patterson, maybe. But Valentin, never.

  11. #40
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Should Dusty have asked Edwin to bunt?

    I hate giving away outs. Maybe I'm in the minority but the only way I bunt is if it gets a tying run to third base with less than 2 out. There's too many bad things that can happen with a bunt including the feared DP that so many here are mentioning if he were to swing away.

  12. #41
    Beer is good!! George Anderson's Avatar
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    Re: Should Dusty have asked Edwin to bunt?

    Did Marty ask Dusty about bunting EE in the pre game interview?
    "Boys, I'm one of those umpires that misses 'em every once in a while so if it's close, you'd better hit it." Cal Hubbard

  13. #42
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Should Dusty have asked Edwin to bunt?

    I voted no. Looking at Harang's feeble attempt at bunting in the opener, and then EE last night, if Dusty wants all of his players to be able to bunt then he has some work cut out for him.

    You also have to look at who was coming to bat after EE. You had Votto, then the weakest part of the batting order coming up.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  14. #43
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Should Dusty have asked Edwin to bunt?

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    It may have been the 7th and 8th batters but the 7th batter was also Votto. Bako would have been pinch hit for by Valentin to boot.
    Yeah, you make a great point. Who wants Votto up there in that situation? A pressing rookie who is not swinging the bat well. If the bunt is unsuccessful then Votto is a wonderful DP candidate

  15. #44
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Should Dusty have asked Edwin to bunt?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    While it doesn't control from the batter at the plate, I found this interesting.

    http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expectancy/search

    This is a site that basically does a non-theoretical win probability assessment by situation. Per this little app:

    B9, 1st & 2nd, 0 outs, Home team down 2:
    http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expect...s=0&expectancy[bases]=3&scorediff=-2
    games: 360
    home won: 101
    expectancy: 0.281

    After a successful bunt:
    B9, 2nd & 3rd, 1 out, Home team down 2:
    games: 203
    home won: 62
    expectancy: 0.305

    So, ignoring for a moment the specific players involved, the outcome of successfully sac bunting in that situation inceases your historical odds of winning by 2.4%.

    Of course, when you factor in the chance of ending up bunting in to a double play or getting the lead runner at 3rd (the true judgment should be based on the possible outcomes rather than the desired one), it probably drops the win probability back below the 28.1% state.

    On yet another hand, the alternative against which we should be comparing the bunt option is not the null state, but rather it's opposite, the non-bunt option. Taking the weighted range of possible outcomes if he were to swing away probably gives us a post-AB win expectancy value lower than the pre-AB too.

    It's important to remember in this scenario that run-expectancy isn't what is important. We have to maximize the chances of scoring at least 2 runs that inning. A 1 run inning is just as useless as a 0 run inning at that point. The math changes a little bit. Your average number of runs might go down while your odds of scoring 2 or more goes up.
    That was an awfully long post to prove that there's no statistical way of knowing if Dusty made the right call or not.

  16. #45
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    Re: Should Dusty have asked Edwin to bunt?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    I don't get why you'd ask any player to perform a task of which they possess poor talent. I don't care what the task is, asking a guy who sucks at said task to perform said task is setting up the player for failure
    I think that failure and embarassment is good for a player with great potential. I'm happy to lose a game but win a great hitter. It's a challenge-- "I never want to be asked to bunt again"

    and he might not.


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