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Thread: Baseball Season Mathematically Predicted

  1. #1
    Member redsrule2500's Avatar
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    Baseball Season Mathematically Predicted

    http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog...your-bets.html

    * NL Central: Brewers – 84; Cubs – 83; Reds – 81; Cardinals – 80; Astros – 79; Pirates – 71
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  3. #2
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Season Mathematically Predicted

    "These results give a guide of how teams ought to perform during the season," he said. "But there are so many unknowns, especially concerning trades, injuries and how rookies will perform that cannot be taken into account."

    In other words, except for the fun of doing it, essentially worthless.

  4. #3
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Season Mathematically Predicted

    Funny how these sites are quick to predict this year but they don't have much to say about how their predictions fared last year. I question the Yankees winning 98 or the Mariners only winning 78. The fun thing about baseball is no one can predict was will happen over 6 mos time. In fact no one can predict was the rosters will look like 6 mos later.

  5. #4
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    Re: Baseball Season Mathematically Predicted

    Thumbs up from me. Season's settled; no longer any need to watch the managers ruin things, nor to see runs score in beautiful, but wrong, ways. The ugliness of a timely stolen base is completely removed. Batters don't have to learn new ways to win games.

  6. #5
    Titanic Struggles Caveat Emperor's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Season Mathematically Predicted

    +1 rep for Virtual Stat Wankery.
    Championships Matter.
    23 Years and Counting...

  7. #6
    Quiet Reverence Vada Pinson Fan's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Season Mathematically Predicted

    So even a mathematical application can't concede the Reds a winning season? Geez:thumbdown

  8. #7
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Baseball Season Mathematically Predicted

    Quote Originally Posted by Vada Pinson Fan View Post
    So even a mathematical application can't concede the Reds a winning season? Geez:thumbdown
    PECOTA has us at 80 wins.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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