That's good to hear, Doug.
Krivsky did well drafting catching at Minnesota.
Let's hope he does as well here.
That's good to hear, Doug.
Krivsky did well drafting catching at Minnesota.
Let's hope he does as well here.
Maybe he has the latter. Maybe. If he truly had plus hitting skills and power, he'd be in Dayton right now.Originally Posted by dougdirt
They don't play baseball on a curve. A hit is a hit and an out is an out. I suppose you could grade prospects on a "for a catcher" scale if you wanted to make bad draft picks.
If you want a "for a catcher" player, then pick him in a "for a catcher" slot. What doesn't make sense is acknowledging that a guy really isn't all that good compared to the wider pool of players and then drafting him like he is.
Frankly, I don't think you understand the concept of reward or risk. Given the risk on Mesoraco (and it's massive), then his reward needs to be that he can be a very good major league hitter - not "for a catcher," for any position. If Mesoraco's only going to be a good hitter "for a catcher," then it's not nearly enough reward.
Plus, you're pretending he's a good hitter. He's a good hitter against HS kids in central PA when he's a year or two or three older than everybody else. You're hardly alone. Scouts have been pretending kids with big arms behind the plate are better hitters than they are since the birth of scouting.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
To be fair, Mesaraco was on the showcase circuit. That's why he started shooting up the prospect charts.He's a good hitter against HS kids in central PA when he's a year or two or three older than everybody else.
At some point in his life he was held back a year in school. He turned 19 on June 18th, while the rest of his High School class and everyone else who graduated in school in the United States that year that also had June birthdays turned 18 in June.
So, every year in High School he was one year older than those that he played against. That's a huge advantage at that age. (my birthday's in June, so I'm very aware of it)
That should have been a red flag when thinking about drafting him. And also, he didn't just struggle at GCL last year....he sucked big time.
Last edited by Kingspoint; 04-11-2008 at 04:27 PM.
IIRC, he got very little showcase time and didn't exactly shine when he did. Also, wasn't a good bit of his "showcase" inside his region?
Last edited by M2; 04-11-2008 at 04:28 PM.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
I'm with Doug on this one. The kid was playing his first year away from home, he was injured, he won't start in the GCL, he's a better hitting prospect than M2 wants to believe and I won't call him a good or bad pick until after this season has played out. About the only thing I agree with M2 about on this one is the risk was beyond what I'd like to see in a #15 pick. There were better options available for that slot, frankly. That doesn't demean what Mesarasco could become, however. And as lollipop curve points out Mes shot up the charts because he hit well in the showcase circuit which is a much higher competition level than just "central PA HS kids".
I thought it was a horrible pick at the time, and I still do. I don't believe he'll reach the Majors.
I don't know the details of how much showcase time he had -- it's probable at least some of that was local, meaning the northeast or midwest. Still, I wanted to clarify that he hadn't been evaluated only against smalltown PA competition.IIRC, he got very little showcase time and didn't exactly shine when he did. Also, wasn't a good bit of his "showcase" inside his region?
Or there are other reasons for his being held back.
Expecting a catcher, or SS or 2B or CFer to hit like a first basemen is going to leave you with a ton of disappointment because those that do go to the HOF.They don't play baseball on a curve. A hit is a hit and an out is an out. I suppose you could grade prospects on a "for a catcher" scale if you wanted to make bad draft picks.
Everyone in baseball rated him as a first round talent. I didn't like the pick at the time because catchers flop more than any type of prospect, but compared to a wider pool of players, everyone in baseball said this kid is a first round talent.If you want a "for a catcher" player, then pick him in a "for a catcher" slot. What doesn't make sense is acknowledging that a guy really isn't all that good compared to the wider pool of players and then drafting him like he is.
So any catcher in the first round better turn out to be Johnny Bench or its not worth drafting him? Having one of the best 5 hitting catchers in baseball who also ranks among the best defensive catchers in baseball is beyond value.Frankly, I don't think you understand the concept of reward or risk. Given the risk on Mesoraco (and it's massive), then his reward needs to be that he can be a very good major league hitter - not "for a catcher," for any position. If Mesoraco's only going to be a good hitter "for a catcher," then it's not nearly enough reward.
No, I am not pretending he is a good hitter. You are pretending that where he is from and because he won't hit like Frank Thomas means he was a bad draft pick.Plus, you're pretending he's a good hitter. He's a good hitter against HS kids in central PA when he's a year or two or three older than everybody else. You're hardly alone. Scouts have been pretending kids with big arms behind the plate are better hitters than they are since the birth of scouting.
Brian McCann had an OPS of .625 when he played in the GCL, obviously the Braves should've cut him.
Russell Martin started his second season at Rookie ball in the Pioneer league, horrible player.
Jason Kendall hit .261 his rookie year, a sign of things to come.
Like what? Supposedly he's dynamite behind the plate and he's got a great attitude. If he can hit too then what possible explanation is there? It damn sure isn't that Jason Bour's got to play.
I expect a 1st round draft pick to hit like a 1st round draft and, if he doesn't, then I wouldn't waste a 1st round draft pick on him. That goes for any position.
Oh, I guarantee you a few teams did a happy dance when the Reds picked Mesoraco, figuring there was a guy they weren't going to touch with a 10-foot pole off the board.
"One of the 5 best hitting catchers in baseball" is pure fantasy. Seriously, say hi to the hobbits for me. I mean, maybe Mesoraco has an extremely narrow chance of doing that for some limited period of time, but let's not pretend it's anything near likely.
You want to burn a first round pick on a catcher? Tell me he's got a good chance to hit like Ted Simmons or Jorge Posada. Mesoraco's more like a good chance to hit like Terry Steinbach, who was a decent enough player, but for a #15 overall pick? No thank you.
"Value" and "reward" ought not to be based on extreme remote possibilities.
Amazing. Somehow you can say "I didn't like the pick at the time because catchers flop more than any type of prospect" and then ignore the vast array of reasons why that's true.
Reason 1A - Everyone pretends they're better hitters than they are.
Reason 1B - Scouts have an unnatural love for a big arm behind the plate (I value it, but an arm does not a player make).
There's plenty of others, but those are the two that almost always crop up when HS catchers go bad.
Last edited by M2; 04-11-2008 at 05:10 PM.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Mesoraco has all the skills to hit the ball. Bat speed, no glaring holes in his swing, good contact rates and a good understanding of the strikezone. Just because he struggled to hit in the GCL while playing with two injured hands doesn't change the fact that everything in his offensive game suggests he is going to hit.
Let us hope he stays healthy for the entire season and gets some playing time in Winterball, too.
He won't play any winterball. They won't send him to the AFL or HWL and they most certainly won't send him to another country to play this early in his career.
agreed - he's not going to winterball. probably back to instructs
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