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Thread: Nifty BP Tools: Reds NL Central Favs?

  1. #1
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Nifty BP Tools: Reds NL Central Favs?

    Disclaimer: We're 10 games in so before you read this, scream out the phrase "SMALL SAMPLE SIZE!!!" Repeat it as much as necessary.

    Now on to the fun stuff ...
    Code:
    
    Playoff Odds Report
    Average wins by position in NL Central:  98.1 90.1 84.5 79.4 73.9 66.0 98.1
    
    NL Central         W    L   Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
    Cardinals          7    3   .488   80.6   81.4   12.70342    7.41798   20.12140
    Brewers            6    3   .503   82.5   79.5   16.58958    8.87472   25.46430
    Cubs               6    3   .510   83.7   78.3   19.23623    9.64599   28.88222
    Reds               6    4   .539   88.2   73.8   31.90140   11.61558   43.51699
    Pirates            3    6   .492   77.9   84.1    9.12039    5.62953   14.74992
    Astros             3    7   .502   79.1   82.9   10.44898    6.38899   16.83797
    Code:
    
    Adjusted Standings Report
    
    NL Central   W   L   RS   RA   W1    L1     EQR EQRA   W2    L2    AEQR AEQRA  W3    L3      D1    D2    D3
    Reds         6   4   48   37   6.2   3.8     47   33   6.5   3.5     52   32   7.2   2.8    -0.2  -0.5  -1.2
    Cubs         6   3   49   43   5.1   3.9     51   38   5.8   3.2     45   39   5.1   3.9     0.9   0.2   0.9
    Brewers      6   3   48   37   5.6   3.4     42   41   4.6   4.4     38   37   4.7   4.3     0.4   1.4   1.3
    Astros       3   7   37   44   4.2   5.8     39   50   3.8   6.2     43   42   5.1   4.9    -1.2  -0.8  -2.1
    Pirates      3   6   49   61   3.5   5.5     44   55   3.5   5.5     43   49   4.0   5.0    -0.5  -0.5  -1.0
    Cardinals    7   3   40   30   6.2   3.8     45   37   5.8   4.2     39   45   4.3   5.7     0.8   1.2   2.7
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

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  3. #2
    RZ Chamber of Commerce Unassisted's Avatar
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    Re: Nifty BP Tools: Reds NL Central Favs?

    Small, but nonetheless encouraging, sample size.

    I don't know the magic that goes into those predicted outcomes. Should we credit this statistical optimism to the Reds clicking on all of the right cylinders or just that they're clicking on more cylinders than their division-mates? Either is good. I'm just curious.
    Last edited by Unassisted; 04-11-2008 at 01:55 PM.
    /r/reds

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    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Nifty BP Tools: Reds NL Central Favs?

    Division title, here we come.
    "Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Nifty BP Tools: Reds NL Central Favs?

    This is where I bring up the cumulative impact of 5-4. Do that 18 times and you finish 90-72.

    Point being, the Reds have shown us the kind of baseball they need to play to be successful over the course of the season - and it revolves around good pitching. Whether they can do 17 more times remains to be seen, but I love that they've gotten off on the right foot.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

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    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Nifty BP Tools: Reds NL Central Favs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Unassisted View Post
    Small, but nonetheless encouraging, sample size.

    I don't know the magic that goes into those predicted outcomes. Should we credit this statistical optimism to the Reds clicking on all of the right cylinders or just that they're clicking on more cylinders than their division-mates? Either is good. I'm just curious.
    It just means they've played a better brand of baseball over the first 10 games than everyone else in the division. If the Reds can continue that trend for the bulk of the season, then they'll give themselves a pretty good chance. If not, well ...

    The good news is this season's decent start is actually a bit more realistic than some recent good starts. The Reds aren't really piecing together some lucky wins like they did in say 2004. That hot start was largely luck-driven, and we saw the implosion that took place as the season progressed.
    Barry Larkin - HOF, 2012

    Put an end to the Lost Decade.

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    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Nifty BP Tools: Reds NL Central Favs?

    Also, I wouldn't label this offense as "hitting on all cylinders" by any stretch. The offense will get better. If the pitching can hold (semi)steady, watch out!
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    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Nifty BP Tools: Reds NL Central Favs?

    Keep chopping wood, don't let your highs get too high, your lows get too low, keep your nose to the grindstone, don't listen to your best critics, don't listen to your worst critics, sometime you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains, and one day at a time.

    Pay attention to the open sky

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    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Nifty BP Tools: Reds NL Central Favs?

    Enjoy this while it lasts, but don't hold our breath for it to last?

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Nifty BP Tools: Reds NL Central Favs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    Keep chopping wood, don't let your highs get too high, your lows get too low, keep your nose to the grindstone, don't listen to your best critics, don't listen to your worst critics, sometime you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains, and one day at a time.
    Hmmm... how to get cork back in bottle...?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Charlie Brown All-Star IslandRed's Avatar
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    Re: Nifty BP Tools: Reds NL Central Favs?

    Let me toss in a guide to the numbers, for those who don't subscribe to BP:

    The Playoff Odds report is a "if we played the season a million times" simulation, based on how they've measured the team's performance to date and factoring in the remaining schedule. This gets really interesting near the end of the season.

    In the Adjusted Standings, W1/L1 is using the Pythagorean formula of projecting wins and losses based on runs scored/allowed. W2/L2 extends that by looking at the components (hits, homers, walks, etc.) to figure out how many runs it thinks the team should have scored and allowed. And finally, W3/L3 adjusts those results for the level of competition faced. Since we've gone 6-4 and have a solid plus run differential against three clubs that were above .500 last year, it gives us extra credit for that.
    Not all who wander are lost

  12. #11
    Quiet Reverence Vada Pinson Fan's Avatar
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    Re: Nifty BP Tools: Reds NL Central Favs?

    Sure the Reds start is encouraging but injuries are going to occur and if they happen to Phillips, Harang, Dunn, etc. the Reds are so thin in their ability to replace them for any length of time.

    All in all I'm tempering my optimism but I couldn't be happier with the performances of Cueto, Volquez and of course- Harang.

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    Re: Nifty BP Tools: Reds NL Central Favs?

    No one wants to hear it, but the Cards sure don't look like a flop to me. Stay tuned. Right now (and it's early, sure), it looks like the Reds and Cards are the class.

    And I know folks like to beat up on OBM in the game threads over the offense, but he's right. The O needs some help.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 04-12-2008 at 10:17 AM.

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    Something clever pahster's Avatar
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    Re: Nifty BP Tools: Reds NL Central Favs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    No one wants to hear it, but the Cards sure don't look like a flop to me. Stay tuned. Right now (and it's early, sure), it looks like the Reds and Cards are the class.
    I've seen five or six Cards games this year. They don't look too impressive to me. They look to be a fourth or fifth place team to me.

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    Re: Nifty BP Tools: Reds NL Central Favs?

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster View Post
    I've seen five or six Cards games this year. They don't look too impressive to me. They look to be a fourth or fifth place team to me.
    Does any team in the NL Central "look" impressive, though? All the Cards do is continue to outscore their opponents by a bigger margin than any other team in the Central. It may not last, I have no way of knowing. But I think the Reds should not dismiss any of the following: Cubs, Brewers, or Cards.

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    Re: Nifty BP Tools: Reds NL Central Favs?

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Does any team in the NL Central "look" impressive, though? All the Cards do is continue to outscore their opponents by a bigger margin than any other team in the Central. It may not last, I have no way of knowing. But I think the Reds should not dismiss any of the following: Cubs, Brewers, or Cards.
    The Reds have looked fine vs.some of the best teams in the league.

    The Cards have looked fine vs. some of the worst teams in the league.

    That's a huge difference.

    It's too early to tell. Let's check back in 4-6 weeks.

    I still think the Cubs are the only team good enough to run and hide.

    And the Cards don't "continue" to outscore their opponents by a bigger margin than other Central teams. Before last night, Cincy had the lead.


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