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Thread: Reds 2008 Pythagorean record

  1. #1
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Reds 2008 Pythagorean record

    IIRC we had a thread last year or the year before where we kept track of the Reds Pythagorean record nightly. I know it's early but I'd like to go ahead and start tracking now so we can look back on this thread later in the season. You can't edit posts after so many hours, so I'll just make a nightly post with the updated numbers.

    Runs scored: 48
    Runs allowed: 38
    Differential: +10

    Reds Pythagorean record: 7-4

    Reds actual record: 6-5

    So far we're one game under what we should be.

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  3. #2
    SERP Emeritus paintmered's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 Pythagorean record

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    IIRC we had a thread last year or the year before where we kept track of the Reds Pythagorean record nightly. I know it's early but I'd like to go ahead and start tracking now so we can look back on this thread later in the season. You can't edit posts after so many hours, so I'll just make a nightly post with the updated numbers.

    Runs scored: 48
    Runs allowed: 38
    Differential: +10

    Reds Pythagorean record: 7-4

    Reds actual record: 6-5

    So far we're one game under what we should be.
    Yeah, I plan to do it again this year, but I'm going to wait until the Reds have played 20 games or so. At this point, the Pythagorean record is of little use. In the meantime, here's the prerequisite reading: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...?articleid=342
    Last edited by paintmered; 04-12-2008 at 01:03 PM.
    What if this wasn't a rhetorical question?

    All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.

  4. #3
    SERP Emeritus paintmered's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 Pythagorean record

    Ah, what the heck, let's start early.

    Code:
    AL EAST		G	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	Diff	PPCT	PW	PL	+/-	PWON	PLOSS
    Baltimore	10	6	4	0.600	-	50	45	5	0.549	5	5	1	89	73
    NY Yankees	11	6	5	0.545	0.5	35	40	-5	0.438	5	6	1	71	91
    Toronto		10	5	5	0.500	1	53	40	13	0.629	6	4	-1	102	60
    Tampa Bay	10	5	5	0.500	1	55	44	11	0.603	6	4	-1	98	64
    Boston		11	5	6	0.455	1.5	43	51	-8	0.421	5	6	0	68	94
    AL CENTRAL	G	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	Diff	PPCT	PW	PL	+/-	PWON	PLOSS
    Kansas City	10	6	4	0.600	-	33	29	4	0.560	6	4	0	91	71
    Chicago Sox	9	5	4	0.556	0.5	52	49	3	0.528	5	4	0	85	77
    Minnesota	10	5	5	0.500	1	40	39	1	0.512	5	5	0	83	79
    Cleveland	10	4	6	0.400	2	44	52	-8	0.423	4	6	0	68	94
    Detroit		10	2	8	0.200	4	33	60	-27	0.246	2	8	0	40	122
    AL WEST		G	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	Diff	PPCT	PW	PL	+/-	PWON	PLOSS
    Oakland		11	7	4	0.636	-	51	40	11	0.612	7	4	0	99	63
    LA Angels	11	6	5	0.545	1	52	51	1	0.509	6	5	0	82	80
    Texas		10	5	5	0.500	1.5	44	46	-2	0.479	5	5	0	78	84
    Seattle		11	5	6	0.455	2	48	47	1	0.510	6	5	-1	83	79
    NL EAST		G	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	Diff	PPCT	PW	PL	+/-	PWON	PLOSS
    Florida		10	7	3	0.700	-	55	60	-5	0.459	5	5	2	74	88
    NY Mets		9	5	4	0.556	1.5	48	33	15	0.668	6	3	-1	108	54
    Philadelphia	11	5	6	0.455	2.5	47	55	-8	0.427	5	6	0	69	93
    Atlanta		10	4	6	0.400	3	53	45	8	0.576	6	4	-2	93	69
    Washington	11	3	8	0.273	4.5	44	56	-12	0.389	4	7	-1	63	99
    NL CENTRAL	G	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	Diff	PPCT	PW	PL	+/-	PWON	PLOSS
    St. Louis	11	8	3	0.727	-	48	32	16	0.681	7	4	1	110	52
    Milwaukee	10	6	4	0.600	1.5	50	41	9	0.592	6	4	0	96	66
    Chicago Cubs	10	6	4	0.600	1.5	52	48	4	0.537	5	5	1	87	75
    Cincinnati	11	6	5	0.545	2	48	38	10	0.608	7	4	-1	98	64
    Pittsburgh	10	4	6	0.400	3.5	50	61	-11	0.408	4	6	0	66	96
    Houston		11	3	8	0.273	5	43	54	-11	0.395	4	7	-1	64	98
    NL WEST		G	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	Diff	PPCT	PW	PL	+/-	PWON	PLOSS
    Arizona		10	8	2	0.800	-	62	29	33	0.805	8	2	0	130	32
    San Diego	11	6	5	0.545	2.5	39	36	3	0.537	6	5	0	87	75
    LA Dodgers	10	4	6	0.400	4	36	41	-5	0.439	4	6	0	71	91
    Colorado	10	4	6	0.400	4	30	50	-20	0.278	3	7	1	45	117
    San Francisco	11	4	7	0.364	4.5	27	53	-26	0.221	2	9	2	36	126
    What if this wasn't a rhetorical question?

    All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.

  5. #4
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    Re: Reds 2008 Pythagorean record

    Sunday's 9-1 loss hurt our differential.

    Runs scored: 52
    Runs allowed: 51
    Differential: +1

    Reds Pythagorean record: 7-6

    Reds actual record: 6-7

    -1

  6. #5
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    Re: Reds 2008 Pythagorean record

    Runs scored: 57
    Runs allowed: 60
    Differential: -3

    Reds Pythagorean record: 7-7

    Reds actual record: 6-8

    -1

  7. #6
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    Re: Reds 2008 Pythagorean record

    Runs scored: 69
    Runs allowed: 74
    Differential: -5

    Reds Pythagorean record: 7-9

    Reds actual record: 7-9

    0

  8. #7
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    Re: Reds 2008 Pythagorean record

    Runs scored: 78
    Runs allowed: 87
    Differential: -9

    Reds Pythagorean record: 9-10

    Reds actual record: 8-11

    -1

  9. #8
    SERP Emeritus paintmered's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 Pythagorean record

    Code:
    AL EAST		G	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	Diff	P PCT	PW	PL	+/-	PWON	PLOSS
    Boston		20	13	7	0.650	-	104	97	7	0.533	11	9	2	86	76
    Baltimore	19	11	8	0.579	1.5	84	84	0	0.500	10	9	1	81	81
    Toronto		19	10	9	0.526	2.5	94	76	18	0.598	11	8	-1	97	65
    NY Yankees	20	10	10	0.500	3.0	85	93	-8	0.458	9	11	1	74	88
    Tampa Bay	19	8	11	0.421	4.5	92	86	6	0.531	10	9	-2	86	76
    AL CENTRAL	G	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	Diff	P PCT	PW	PL	+/-	PWON	PLOSS
    Chicago Sox	18	11	7	0.611	-	98	66	32	0.677	12	6	-1	110	52
    Minnesota	19	9	10	0.474	2.5	71	78	-7	0.456	9	10	0	74	88
    Kansas City	19	9	10	0.474	2.5	63	77	-14	0.407	8	11	1	66	96
    Cleveland	19	7	12	0.368	4.5	79	90	-11	0.439	8	11	-1	71	91
    Detroit		19	6	13	0.316	5.5	77	117	-40	0.314	6	13	0	51	111
    AL WEST		G	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	Diff	P PCT	PW	PL	+/-	PWON	PLOSS
    LA Angels	20	12	8	0.600	-	97	87	10	0.551	11	9	1	89	73
    Oakland		20	12	8	0.600	-	91	75	16	0.589	12	8	0	95	67
    Seattle		20	10	10	0.500	2.0	94	85	9	0.547	11	9	-1	89	73
    Texas		19	7	12	0.368	4.5	79	97	-18	0.405	8	11	-1	66	96
    NL EAST		G	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	Diff	P PCT	PW	PL	+/-	PWON	PLOSS
    NY Mets		16	10	6	0.625	-	82	57	25	0.664	11	5	-1	108	54
    Florida		18	11	7	0.611	-	82	95	-13	0.432	8	10	3	70	92
    Atlanta		18	9	9	0.500	2.0	96	65	31	0.675	12	6	-3	109	53
    Philadelphia	18	8	10	0.444	3.0	80	79	1	0.506	9	9	-1	82	80
    Washington	19	5	14	0.263	6.5	67	100	-33	0.321	6	13	-1	52	110
    NL CENTRAL	G	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	Diff	P PCT	PW	PL	+/-	PWON	PLOSS
    Chicago Cubs	18	12	6	0.667	-	111	86	25	0.617	11	7	1	100	62
    St. Louis	19	12	7	0.632	0.5	87	68	19	0.613	12	7	0	99	63
    Milwaukee	18	11	7	0.611	1.0	87	74	13	0.575	10	8	1	93	69
    Cincinnati	19	8	11	0.421	4.5	78	87	-9	0.449	9	10	-1	73	89
    Pittsburgh	18	7	11	0.389	5.0	81	117	-36	0.335	6	12	1	54	108
    Houston		19	7	12	0.368	5.5	73	88	-15	0.414	8	11	-1	67	95
    NL WEST		G	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	Diff	P PCT	PW	PL	+/-	PWON	PLOSS
    Arizona		18	13	5	0.722	-	116	65	51	0.747	13	5	0	121	41
    Colorado	18	9	9	0.500	4.0	76	87	-11	0.437	8	10	1	71	91
    San Diego	19	9	10	0.474	4.5	62	82	-20	0.372	7	12	2	60	102
    San Francisco	19	8	11	0.421	5.5	61	94	-33	0.308	6	13	2	50	112
    LA Dodgers	18	7	11	0.389	6.0	73	68	5	0.533	10	8	-3	86	76
    Last edited by paintmered; 04-20-2008 at 08:54 PM.
    What if this wasn't a rhetorical question?

    All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.

  10. #9
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Reds 2008 Pythagorean record

    Runs scored: 89
    Runs allowed: 97
    Differential: -8

    Reds Pythagorean record: 10-11

    Reds actual record: 9-12

    -1

  11. #10
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    Re: Reds 2008 Pythagorean record

    Runs scored: 116
    Runs allowed: 124
    Differential: -8

    Reds Pythagorean record: 12-14

    Reds actual record: 11-15

    -1

  12. #11
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    Re: Reds 2008 Pythagorean record

    Runs scored: 120
    Runs allowed: 127
    Differential: -7

    Reds Pythagorean record: 13-14

    Reds actual record: 12-15

    -1


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