IIRC we had a thread last year or the year before where we kept track of the Reds Pythagorean record nightly. I know it's early but I'd like to go ahead and start tracking now so we can look back on this thread later in the season. You can't edit posts after so many hours, so I'll just make a nightly post with the updated numbers.
Runs scored: 48
Runs allowed: 38
Differential: +10
Reds Pythagorean record: 7-4
Reds actual record: 6-5
So far we're one game under what we should be.
Yeah, I plan to do it again this year, but I'm going to wait until the Reds have played 20 games or so. At this point, the Pythagorean record is of little use. In the meantime, here's the prerequisite reading: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...?articleid=342Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine
Last edited by paintmered; 04-12-2008 at 12:03 PM.
All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.
Ah, what the heck, let's start early.
Code:AL EAST G W L PCT GB RS RA Diff PPCT PW PL +/- PWON PLOSS Baltimore 10 6 4 0.600 - 50 45 5 0.549 5 5 1 89 73 NY Yankees 11 6 5 0.545 0.5 35 40 -5 0.438 5 6 1 71 91 Toronto 10 5 5 0.500 1 53 40 13 0.629 6 4 -1 102 60 Tampa Bay 10 5 5 0.500 1 55 44 11 0.603 6 4 -1 98 64 Boston 11 5 6 0.455 1.5 43 51 -8 0.421 5 6 0 68 94 AL CENTRAL G W L PCT GB RS RA Diff PPCT PW PL +/- PWON PLOSS Kansas City 10 6 4 0.600 - 33 29 4 0.560 6 4 0 91 71 Chicago Sox 9 5 4 0.556 0.5 52 49 3 0.528 5 4 0 85 77 Minnesota 10 5 5 0.500 1 40 39 1 0.512 5 5 0 83 79 Cleveland 10 4 6 0.400 2 44 52 -8 0.423 4 6 0 68 94 Detroit 10 2 8 0.200 4 33 60 -27 0.246 2 8 0 40 122 AL WEST G W L PCT GB RS RA Diff PPCT PW PL +/- PWON PLOSS Oakland 11 7 4 0.636 - 51 40 11 0.612 7 4 0 99 63 LA Angels 11 6 5 0.545 1 52 51 1 0.509 6 5 0 82 80 Texas 10 5 5 0.500 1.5 44 46 -2 0.479 5 5 0 78 84 Seattle 11 5 6 0.455 2 48 47 1 0.510 6 5 -1 83 79 NL EAST G W L PCT GB RS RA Diff PPCT PW PL +/- PWON PLOSS Florida 10 7 3 0.700 - 55 60 -5 0.459 5 5 2 74 88 NY Mets 9 5 4 0.556 1.5 48 33 15 0.668 6 3 -1 108 54 Philadelphia 11 5 6 0.455 2.5 47 55 -8 0.427 5 6 0 69 93 Atlanta 10 4 6 0.400 3 53 45 8 0.576 6 4 -2 93 69 Washington 11 3 8 0.273 4.5 44 56 -12 0.389 4 7 -1 63 99 NL CENTRAL G W L PCT GB RS RA Diff PPCT PW PL +/- PWON PLOSS St. Louis 11 8 3 0.727 - 48 32 16 0.681 7 4 1 110 52 Milwaukee 10 6 4 0.600 1.5 50 41 9 0.592 6 4 0 96 66 Chicago Cubs 10 6 4 0.600 1.5 52 48 4 0.537 5 5 1 87 75 Cincinnati 11 6 5 0.545 2 48 38 10 0.608 7 4 -1 98 64 Pittsburgh 10 4 6 0.400 3.5 50 61 -11 0.408 4 6 0 66 96 Houston 11 3 8 0.273 5 43 54 -11 0.395 4 7 -1 64 98 NL WEST G W L PCT GB RS RA Diff PPCT PW PL +/- PWON PLOSS Arizona 10 8 2 0.800 - 62 29 33 0.805 8 2 0 130 32 San Diego 11 6 5 0.545 2.5 39 36 3 0.537 6 5 0 87 75 LA Dodgers 10 4 6 0.400 4 36 41 -5 0.439 4 6 0 71 91 Colorado 10 4 6 0.400 4 30 50 -20 0.278 3 7 1 45 117 San Francisco 11 4 7 0.364 4.5 27 53 -26 0.221 2 9 2 36 126
All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.
Sunday's 9-1 loss hurt our differential.
Runs scored: 52
Runs allowed: 51
Differential: +1
Reds Pythagorean record: 7-6
Reds actual record: 6-7
-1
Runs scored: 57
Runs allowed: 60
Differential: -3
Reds Pythagorean record: 7-7
Reds actual record: 6-8
-1
Runs scored: 69
Runs allowed: 74
Differential: -5
Reds Pythagorean record: 7-9
Reds actual record: 7-9
0
Runs scored: 78
Runs allowed: 87
Differential: -9
Reds Pythagorean record: 9-10
Reds actual record: 8-11
-1
Code:AL EAST G W L PCT GB RS RA Diff P PCT PW PL +/- PWON PLOSS Boston 20 13 7 0.650 - 104 97 7 0.533 11 9 2 86 76 Baltimore 19 11 8 0.579 1.5 84 84 0 0.500 10 9 1 81 81 Toronto 19 10 9 0.526 2.5 94 76 18 0.598 11 8 -1 97 65 NY Yankees 20 10 10 0.500 3.0 85 93 -8 0.458 9 11 1 74 88 Tampa Bay 19 8 11 0.421 4.5 92 86 6 0.531 10 9 -2 86 76 AL CENTRAL G W L PCT GB RS RA Diff P PCT PW PL +/- PWON PLOSS Chicago Sox 18 11 7 0.611 - 98 66 32 0.677 12 6 -1 110 52 Minnesota 19 9 10 0.474 2.5 71 78 -7 0.456 9 10 0 74 88 Kansas City 19 9 10 0.474 2.5 63 77 -14 0.407 8 11 1 66 96 Cleveland 19 7 12 0.368 4.5 79 90 -11 0.439 8 11 -1 71 91 Detroit 19 6 13 0.316 5.5 77 117 -40 0.314 6 13 0 51 111 AL WEST G W L PCT GB RS RA Diff P PCT PW PL +/- PWON PLOSS LA Angels 20 12 8 0.600 - 97 87 10 0.551 11 9 1 89 73 Oakland 20 12 8 0.600 - 91 75 16 0.589 12 8 0 95 67 Seattle 20 10 10 0.500 2.0 94 85 9 0.547 11 9 -1 89 73 Texas 19 7 12 0.368 4.5 79 97 -18 0.405 8 11 -1 66 96 NL EAST G W L PCT GB RS RA Diff P PCT PW PL +/- PWON PLOSS NY Mets 16 10 6 0.625 - 82 57 25 0.664 11 5 -1 108 54 Florida 18 11 7 0.611 - 82 95 -13 0.432 8 10 3 70 92 Atlanta 18 9 9 0.500 2.0 96 65 31 0.675 12 6 -3 109 53 Philadelphia 18 8 10 0.444 3.0 80 79 1 0.506 9 9 -1 82 80 Washington 19 5 14 0.263 6.5 67 100 -33 0.321 6 13 -1 52 110 NL CENTRAL G W L PCT GB RS RA Diff P PCT PW PL +/- PWON PLOSS Chicago Cubs 18 12 6 0.667 - 111 86 25 0.617 11 7 1 100 62 St. Louis 19 12 7 0.632 0.5 87 68 19 0.613 12 7 0 99 63 Milwaukee 18 11 7 0.611 1.0 87 74 13 0.575 10 8 1 93 69 Cincinnati 19 8 11 0.421 4.5 78 87 -9 0.449 9 10 -1 73 89 Pittsburgh 18 7 11 0.389 5.0 81 117 -36 0.335 6 12 1 54 108 Houston 19 7 12 0.368 5.5 73 88 -15 0.414 8 11 -1 67 95 NL WEST G W L PCT GB RS RA Diff P PCT PW PL +/- PWON PLOSS Arizona 18 13 5 0.722 - 116 65 51 0.747 13 5 0 121 41 Colorado 18 9 9 0.500 4.0 76 87 -11 0.437 8 10 1 71 91 San Diego 19 9 10 0.474 4.5 62 82 -20 0.372 7 12 2 60 102 San Francisco 19 8 11 0.421 5.5 61 94 -33 0.308 6 13 2 50 112 LA Dodgers 18 7 11 0.389 6.0 73 68 5 0.533 10 8 -3 86 76
Last edited by paintmered; 04-20-2008 at 07:54 PM.
All models are wrong. Some of them are useful.
Runs scored: 89
Runs allowed: 97
Differential: -8
Reds Pythagorean record: 10-11
Reds actual record: 9-12
-1
Runs scored: 116
Runs allowed: 124
Differential: -8
Reds Pythagorean record: 12-14
Reds actual record: 11-15
-1
Runs scored: 120
Runs allowed: 127
Differential: -7
Reds Pythagorean record: 13-14
Reds actual record: 12-15
-1
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