Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 39

Thread: Markov on the Reds' Lineups

  1. #1
    Basement-Dwelling Blogger JinAZ's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Arizona
    Posts
    144

    Markov on the Reds' Lineups

    Hi folks,

    First, just wanted to thank BaseClogger for nominating me for ORG, and everyone else who helped vote me in. I'm pleased to have a chance to interact with you folks without having to have somebody post for me by proxy!

    I had a thread over at SunDeck about a lineup project that I've been undertaking using John Beamer's Markov Chains model. That thread can be found here.

    I've now released the results of my initial foray into this stuff on my blog (I'd cross-post here, but I don't think the tables would translate well). The results were pretty surprising to me, given my prior understanding of lineup construction.

    Anyway, I can't post to my old thread anymore given my status change here, so I thought I'd open this thread in case anyone had comments. In some ways, I'm not sure I completely believe the results myself, but even so they're intriguing.
    -j

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    The 303
    Posts
    2,536

    Re: Markov on the Reds' Lineups

    Crazy good stuff and welcome to org! Ill be putting some of this to the test in my sim league.
    "I hate to advocate chemicals, alcohol, violence or insanity to anyone... But they've always worked for me."

    -Hunter S. Thompson

  4. #3
    Miami Redhawks Redhook's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Cincy
    Posts
    2,257

    Re: Markov on the Reds' Lineups

    Great work! That was fun to read.
    "....the two players I liked watching the most were Barry Larkin and Eric Davis. I was suitably entertained by their effortless skill that I didn't need them crashing into walls like a squirrel on a coke binge." - dsmith421

    www.kylevoska.com - Golfer? Check out my blog for golf tips.

  5. #4
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    16,601

    Re: Markov on the Reds' Lineups

    Very interesting read.

    Welcome aboard.

    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
    ~ Mark Twain

  6. #5
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    Bristol, just around the corner from ESPN
    Posts
    8,694

    Re: Markov on the Reds' Lineups

    IIRC, didn't PECOTA give some unrealistically high projections for Bruce, which would have therefore skewed the Markov results for the "best" lineups?

    I think down the road Bruce should definitely be included on any "best" lineup, but for the time being, IMO he needs more time in AAA.

    2009, however, is a completely different story.

  7. #6
    Basement-Dwelling Blogger JinAZ's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Arizona
    Posts
    144

    Re: Markov on the Reds' Lineups

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    IIRC, didn't PECOTA give some unrealistically high projections for Bruce, which would have therefore skewed the Markov results for the "best" lineups?

    I think down the road Bruce should definitely be included on any "best" lineup, but for the time being, IMO he needs more time in AAA.

    2009, however, is a completely different story.
    PECOTA does like Bruce quite a bit, with an 0.850ish OPS. Whether folks think that's too high is open to debate. If it is too high, then yeah, it's going to change the performance of the lineups that include him. Not all of the top organizational lineups include him--that was up to those who submitted lineups.

    From the perspective of trying to understand lineups (and not just the Reds' lineup), though, it doesn't really matter. Substituting a PECOTA Bruce for a PECOTA Patterson just represents a case where a better player is substituted for a poorer player, so we can see the effects of that on lineup performance.
    -j

  8. #7
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Chicago, IL
    Posts
    15,931

    Re: Markov on the Reds' Lineups

    Wow. I sucked. Time to bite my tongue about lineups I guess...
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #8
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    North Kansas City, Mo
    Posts
    5,681

    Re: Markov on the Reds' Lineups

    Welcome aboard Jinaz! I like your blog, and your post on SunDeck, it'll be nice having you in the mix here.

    Now my comments on the thread topic. So basically this validates Baker's use of the players he has available to him, which I think is fair. Also, the Bruce for CP stuff has died down a bit and if PECOTA is accurate, Bruce for CP would be a small uptick in team performance. What I wish I saw was Bruce in place of Griffey although the PECOTA numbers for Junior may be high, too, given his age and his start.

    Also how about plugging in some variants with players available from the RH side when facing lefties -a look at how Dusty might construct alineup aginst lefties. Can the Markov model isolate performance vs. L-R? I really don't know, Jinaz. Can you answer that?

    As much as it is getting old to hear the fact is it takes a good offense to leave so many guys on base, and key hits will start falling in.

  10. #9
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Bellefontaine, Ohio
    Posts
    26,665

    Re: Markov on the Reds' Lineups

    Welcome aboard and thanks for the read. Good stuff.

    This immediately caught my eye....

    Think about that. Baker's lineup violates one of the biggest "rules" for lineup construction that us stat people harp on--his leadoff hitter is projected to have a miserable 0.307 OBP this season. And yet, the interactions between players in his lineup are such that his lineup results in more wins per season than most other variants...at least, according to Markov. My own lineups, which I designed based largely on the lineup chapter in The Book, rated as a fairly middle-of-the-pack lineup, and came out a good 17 runs (~1.5 wins) behind Baker's model. And some of the user-submitted lineups, which look very reasonable to my eye, came out more than 30 runs per season behind Baker's. Again, "wow."
    This team is getting on base. The Reds are 4th in MLB in OB% (.347). Where they are really getting hurt is SLG% (.399 - 17th). With RISP, they carry a B/A of .248, and SLG% of .386.

    My biggest concern is where Dunn is batting. I just don't think you're maximizing the guy's ability/performance batting him 5th. He is at the top of MLB (or was) in drawing walks. He is struggling right now; but could that be because of where he is hitting and seeing who is behind him?

    This team got 14 hits last night, yet over the last two games have stranded 23.

    I think they are just suffering through an early season slump, some tough luck, and where some guys are starting to press.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  11. #10
    Something clever pahster's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Columbia, MO
    Posts
    1,907

    Re: Markov on the Reds' Lineups

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    IIRC, didn't PECOTA give some unrealistically high projections for Bruce, which would have therefore skewed the Markov results for the "best" lineups?
    You're thinking of Bill James' projection for Bruce. It was something like a .990 OPS.

  12. #11
    breath westofyou's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2000
    Location
    PDX
    Posts
    42,390

    Re: Markov on the Reds' Lineups

    Quote Originally Posted by pahster View Post
    You're thinking of Bill James' projection for Bruce. It was something like a .990 OPS.

    Code:
    PECOTA - .269/.336/.512 - 584 ab's
    
    Bill James - .308/.363/.602 - 143 ab's
    It's nice to have a player whose age comps are Kaline and Ott, but dialing it back a bit would be my approach.

  13. #12
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Springfield, Ohio
    Posts
    9,052

    Re: Markov on the Reds' Lineups

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    Welcome aboard and thanks for the read. Good stuff.

    This immediately caught my eye....



    This team is getting on base. The Reds are 4th in MLB in OB% (.347). Where they are really getting hurt is SLG% (.399 - 17th). With RISP, they carry a B/A of .248, and SLG% of .386.

    My biggest concern is where Dunn is batting. I just don't think you're maximizing the guy's ability/performance batting him 5th. He is at the top of MLB (or was) in drawing walks. He is struggling right now; but could that be because of where he is hitting and seeing who is behind him?

    This team got 14 hits last night, yet over the last two games have stranded 23.

    I think they are just suffering through an early season slump, some tough luck, and where some guys are starting to press.

    I don't think there is any doubt to this being an issue. IMO the lineup should have Dunn batting ahead of guys who are nearly as dangerous when they do swing the bat but who are more likely to swing the bat. The problem is Jr won't be moved down in the lineup due to politics. So really the only other option would be to flip flop Phillips and Dunn which could also cause a bit of a stir. I also think this could take some of the pressure off of EE because he and Dunn are struggling and back to back which puts more pressure on EE because he feels like the last line of defense. If you put BP between them it protects Dunn which should help him and if BP doesn't take it as a demotion should help take the pressure of EE. Hope that made some sense.

    I think the lineup(s) should look more like this (Justin please feel free to use these in the model).

    (Using the OD starters this would have been my OD lineup, surprisingly no one used this lineup)

    Kepp
    Hatteberg
    Dunn
    Phillips
    Jr
    Encarnacion
    Patterson
    Valentin

    (Using all MLB ava. players)

    Hopper
    Kepp
    Dunn
    Phillips
    Jr
    Encarnacion
    Votto
    Valentin

    (If Bruce were ava. too me)

    Kepp
    Votto
    Dunn
    Phillips
    Jr
    Encarnacion
    Bruce
    Valentin

    Oh Yeah and welcome aboard JinAz!
    Last edited by Mario-Rijo; 04-13-2008 at 06:15 PM.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  14. #13
    Basement-Dwelling Blogger JinAZ's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Arizona
    Posts
    144

    Re: Markov on the Reds' Lineups

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Now my comments on the thread topic. So basically this validates Baker's use of the players he has available to him, which I think is fair. Also, the Bruce for CP stuff has died down a bit and if PECOTA is accurate, Bruce for CP would be a small uptick in team performance. What I wish I saw was Bruce in place of Griffey although the PECOTA numbers for Junior may be high, too, given his age and his start.
    One thing that isn't identified in a lot of evaluations of Griffey is his impact via baserunning and throwing. His speed is such that his "arm" ratings (i.e. ability to prevent baserunner advancement) is terrible, as is his ability to advance around the bases on hits. FWIW, MGL was forecasting Griffey as a below-replacement level player this past offseason based on those numbers and his miserable range. I'm not sure I agree (I had him at 15-25 runs above replacement if I remember right, depending on what fielding and arm stats you use), but it probably is something worth tracking more carefully in his case.

    Also how about plugging in some variants with players available from the RH side when facing lefties -a look at how Dusty might construct alineup aginst lefties. Can the Markov model isolate performance vs. L-R? I really don't know, Jinaz. Can you answer that?
    In terms of the model itself, it should be fairly "easy" to do left vs. right lineups with this model, as you'd just use different input data--projected left/right splits for each counting stat for each player.

    Coming up with good input data could be tricky, though, as none of the major projection engines provide left/right splits. We could probably Marcel it and assume that all players of each handedness have the same left/right splits (which is usually pretty safe, especially for right-handers)...but that isn't really something that I can do right now time-wise.
    -j

  15. #14
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Springfield, Ohio
    Posts
    9,052

    Re: Markov on the Reds' Lineups

    Quote Originally Posted by JinAZ View Post
    One thing that isn't identified in a lot of evaluations of Griffey is his impact via baserunning and throwing. His speed is such that his "arm" ratings (i.e. ability to prevent baserunner advancement) is terrible, as is his ability to advance around the bases on hits. FWIW, MGL was forecasting Griffey as a below-replacement level player this past offseason based on those numbers and his miserable range. I'm not sure I agree (I had him at 15-25 runs above replacement if I remember right, depending on what fielding and arm stats you use), but it probably is something worth tracking more carefully in his case.
    I also forecasted that, only just by the naked eye. I just could tell he was slipping in so many facets. It hasn't necc. come to fruition yet he has done ok to this point (and way better than at this point last year) but I suspect we will be screaming vehemently for Bruce to RF before the end of the season.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  16. #15
    Basement-Dwelling Blogger JinAZ's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Arizona
    Posts
    144

    Re: Markov on the Reds' Lineups

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post

    Kepp
    Hatteberg
    Dunn
    Phillips
    Jr
    Encarnacion
    Patterson
    Valentin
    Markov says: 4.91 R/G, 796 Runs/season, +6.9 runs above Baker.
    Innings each spot led off:
    Code:
      
       1     2     3     4      5     6     7     8     9
    1.80 0.77 0.78 1.07 1.01 0.83 1.13 0.83 0.72
    We have a new champion..

    (Using all MLB ava. players)

    Hopper
    Kepp
    Dunn
    Phillips
    Jr
    Encarnacion
    Votto
    Valentin
    Markov says: 4.85 r/g, 785.7 r/season, -3.4 above Baker
    Code:
      1       2      3      4      5      6       7      8      9
    1.77  0.76  0.78  0.95  1.04  0.85  0.88  0.85  1.06
    (If Bruce were ava. too me)

    Kepp
    Votto
    Dunn
    Phillips
    Jr
    Encarnacion
    Bruce
    Valentin
    Markov says: 5.07 R/G, 820.6 R/season, +31.5 runs above Baker.
    Innings led off:
    Code:
       1     2     3     4     5      6     7     8      9 
    1.80 0.77 0.76 1.07 1.02 0.84 1.14 0.84 0.72
    That's about 9 runs better than the next-best lineup submitted thus far.

    One thing I might be seeing in your lineups is that when Dunn hits third, it might tend to result in the #4 hitter leading off fewer innings (thanks to his OBP?)...the latter is a major feature of your lineups, and might be a big part of the reason that they've been so successful in the model.

    Of course, that's not always the case--Degenerate's OD lineup also had Dunn hitting third, and yet his lineup tied for the most innings the #4 hitter led off an inning of all the lineups I've run (and furthermore did poorly overall).

    Oh Yeah and welcome aboard JinAz!
    Thanks, both to you and to all the other welcome messages!
    -Justin
    Last edited by JinAZ; 04-13-2008 at 07:52 PM. Reason: trying to get innings tables to look right--and failing!


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25