There's an good article on fangraphs.com about Patterson's hot start. It's right on the front page, so I don't think I need to direct you or anything, but it's worth checking out. It's still early, but that drop in K's is an encouraging sign...especially once his BABIP cracks the .200 mark.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...orey-patterson
And the best one, may be from the comments.Corey Patterson has always been thought of as a guy with tremendous potential. From 1999 to 2001, Baseball America ranked him as the 16th, 3rd, and 2nd best prospect in baseball respectively. The physical talents were obvious; terrific athleticism, quick bat, legitimate home run power, and serious speed from a guy playing a premium defensive position well. However, Patterson struggled to refine his approach at the plate, and by repeatedly chasing pitches out of the strike zone, he made himself a fairly easy out for opposing pitchers. If you can’t make contact, it is tough to be an offensive asset. For seven years, Patterson simply didn’t hit the ball often enough to live up to his natural talent, which led to him being bounced out of both Chicago and Baltimore and finding himself as an unwanted free agent this winter.
After an offseason of rejection, the Cincinnati Reds offered him a minor league contract on March 3rd, giving him a chance to fight for a roster spot in spring training. After they decided to send Jay Bruce to Triple-A to start the year, Patterson found himself with a regular job, and with the way his 2008 season has started (.57 WPA/LI and the Reds best hitter to date), he may just have found a home where he can remind people of the player they thought he would be.
It all starts with his strikeout rate. Look at the graph of his contact ability throughout his career.
During his time in Chicago, he was a strikeout machine. As you can see, this is something he’s clearly worked on improving, as the line from his 2005 to 2008 strikeout rate shows a huge decline. So far this year, he’s struck out two times in 46 plate appearances. That’s pretty remarkable for a guy with a career K% of 22.7%. His current K% of 4.8% puts him in a group with noted contact kings Casey Kotchman and Placido Polanco. When you look at the pitch data summary from his Baseball-Reference page, you can see the difference. Even though he’s seeing less strikes than in any other season, he’s only swinging at 72% of those pitches in the strike zone, compared to a career average of 81%.
By being more selective in which pitches to swing at, Patterson has managed to put himself in positions to hit pitches he can do something with, and that’s been manifest in his performance. Of his 11 hits, five are doubles and four are home runs, giving him a .405 Isolated Slugging Percentage that ranks fifth in all of baseball. Patterson’s early season performance isn’t going to be sustained at this level (a 7% swinging strike rate is impossible to keep up), but there are legitimate reasons to believe that he’s adopted a new approach at the plate, and his continued contact ability could be just the ticket to stardom that people have been projecting on Patterson for most of this decade.
For all the crap that Baker and the Reds get for the things they do wrong, they nailed this one and deserve credit for doing so. Patterson’s a legitimate asset, and picking him up for free is the kind of move that earned Billy Beane the genius label. This was a classic case of finding an undervalued talent and turning it into a competitive advantage.
Originally Posted by Scooter
I must've been to that site about a dozen times the last few days and didn't even notice it. Thanks for the heads up!
2006 - Acquired 2B Brandon Phillips for a bag of balls
2007 - Acquired SS Jeff Keppinger for some rosin bags
2008 - Acquired CF Corey Patterson for a pouch of chewing tobacco
I'm not drinking the Patterson Kool Aid just yet, but if he really does pan out, Wayne Krivsky has done a ridiculously good job of rebuilding the Reds up the middle on the cheap. Will he find the Reds a catcher next year?
Cameron also has an interesting comment for a reader who points out that Patterson is not walking:
Perhaps also a rejoinder for those folks who are constantly deriding Jay Bruce's lack of walks?When you’re hitting the ball like a .327 hitter and slugging like a .676 power hitter, walks are just getting in the way of your extra base hits.
“Every level he goes to, he is going to compete. They will know who he is at every level he goes to.” -- ED on EDLC
Don't forget Josh Hamilton.
Go BLUE!!!
A $3M pouch of chewing tobacco? Wow, that must be good stuff.
Patterson is slugging well, but nobody seems to be talking about his .262 average or .304 OBP. Obviously you'd take those if he keeps slugging .600+, but if he doesn't he's really going to need to find ways to get on base. It's odd to me because you'd expect the lower K rates to show up in batting average and/or OBP, and it really hasn't. So far I'm not complaining, but it will be interesting to see what happens when he stops hitting homers every other day.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-15-2008 at 10:37 AM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
he experienced a large drop in Ks last year.
2006 94Ks in 463ABs - 757 OPS
2007 65Ks in 461ABs - 690 OPS
He was trading Ks for something ... but is wasn't hits.
after 6 full seasons he likely is who he is ... and is not very likely to morph into something else.
Last edited by flyer85; 04-15-2008 at 10:39 AM.
Except he is morphing, nobody is sure what he is morphing into, but he is changing as a hitter. His K's are decreasing, but his BA and OBP are not increasing. so he's making different kinds of outs. From 2004 through 2007 His K's lowered each year. Lowered a lot to the point that in 2007 he had less than half as many K's as he did in 2004. And he had a lower OBP too. That's just weird. His walks stagnated in 2005. 23 in '05 21 in '06 and '07. For 2008 he looks to be on pace to K about 25-30 times, which is ridiculous for a guy not getting on base. He also projects to BB about 25-30 times.
That's just odd.
I think he can post sub 50 K numbers this year. But he needs 50+ BB's to make him a real leadoff hitter.
I sure would like to know what he traded the K's for though. I'm thinking lot's of flyball outs.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
as you point out he is trading one kind of for another. From my perspective, out are outs, be it Ks or GOs or FOs. He is making different kinds of outs but he stat line is saying the same thing. Middling BA, low OBP, some power.
I'm going with a different approach. He's not K'ing, but his bat control is improving. Now he needs to learn to lay of pitches he can't drive, but can put wood on. Dun get's this, Casey did not. I swear Casey could put the bat on almost any pitch, but when he was at his best, he was spraying line drives. If Patterson can learn just a smidgen of patience, he could be a dangerous hitter. It seems to me he has continued to evolve his game, but he's going a bit sideways instead of forward.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
hey, I passed 7,000 posts!
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Looking at his PA outcome splits at Fan Graphs, it's pretty clear that Patterson has traded strikeouts for flyballs, along with some grounders and line drives for flyballs. For a guy with a lot of speed, the process of reducing his strikeouts and increase his contact rate has led to no more production. The gains of making contact instead of striking out are being offset by putting the ball in play more weakly in times where he would've made more productive contact in the past.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Added a few
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