Volquez and pitch efficiency

[RedEye]

I feel like this topic comes up in game threads every once in awhile, but I haven't actually seen any freestanding threads recently. One of the amazing things about Cueto is his control, and that becomes even more marked when we consider his two young colleagues, Volquez and Bailey. And, as we all know, Homer is in AAA mostly because of his inefficiency with pitch counts due to lack of control. Although Edinson seems to be a bit further up the development ladder in this regard, he has not yet made it out of the fifth inning in a start, and has been racking up pitches on his way to good K numbers.

I'm wondering what the rest of you see for this season for Volquez and also what you think of this topic in general. Do you think he is likely to start being more efficient, or do the current statistical trends point towards a player who has reached his peak? How does Volquez compare to Cueto, Bailey, and our other young arms in terms of control (Maloney, Thompson, etc.)? Who are the historical comparisons for this type of development (Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan)?

In any case, seems to me that if Volquez can become more efficient with his pitches, the Reds could have a real dynamo on their hands. But that may be a big "if."

[RedEye]

As we speak, EV has 70 pitches through 3 innings against the Cubs. The trend continues...

[fearofpopvol1]

Well, what was interesting to me was the guy barely walked anybody in ST. I think most were under the impression that he had turned a corner, I know at least I did.

Now that he has been pitching in the majors, he has walked too many batters. He's gotta have better control for sure.

[OnBaseMachine]

He wasn't bad in his last start - 75 pitches in five innings. He could have went two innings if not for the rain delay.

Today his control has been bad but the terrible ump hasn't helped.

[pedro]

He's been getting squeezed a bit today IMO.

I thought that ball 4 to Lilly was strike 2.

Regardless, he is throwing too many pitches.

[Reds Fanatic]

Of the 70 pitches he has thrown in 3 innings 40 are strikes and 30 balls. If that control does not improve his starts are going to be hard on the bullpen.

[RedEye]

He wasn't bad in his last start - 75 pitches in five innings. He could have went two innings if not for the rain delay.

Today his control has been bad but the terrible ump hasn't helped.

That's a good point. I had forgotten about that start, and realize that it does constitute over half of our sample size (fires research staff).

[RedsManRick]

Pitch efficiency is obviously tied in to the rate at which a guy throws strikes. However, I think it's important to distinguish between a guy's willingness to throw strikes and his ability to do so.

Cueto clearly has great control and a willingness to attack the zone. By contrast, Belisle has good control as well but is much more prone to nibbling -- perhaps a result of having worse "stuff" and thus get hit a bit more.

[RedEye]

Pitch efficiency is obviously tied in to the rate at which a guy throws strikes. However, I think it's important to distinguish between a guy's willingness to throw strikes and his ability to do so.

Cueto clearly has great control and a willingness to attack the zone. By contrast, Belisle has good control as well but is much more prone to nibbling -- perhaps a result of having worse "stuff" and thus get hit a bit more.

So is Volquez a Cueto-type pitcher who is prone to too much nibbling? Or does he just have no idea where the ball is going when it leaves his hand?

[SMcGavin]

Well I don't think he has reached his peak. Just look at walk rates the past two years:

2006: MLB 4.59 BB/9, AAA 5.37 BB/9
2007: MLB 3.97 BB/9, AAA 3.71 BB/9

I don't have data on pitches thrown per batter, but I would think they'd be dropping with his walk rates. In the short term he may continue to be 5-6 innings per start guy but I don't see any reason to think he won't improve with experience.

[OnBaseMachine]

So is Volquez a Cueto-type pitcher who is prone to too much nibbling? Or does he just have no idea where the ball is going when it leaves his hand?

I personally think he nibbles too much. He's had a couple guys 0-2 or 1-2 today and tried to make the perfect pitch every time. He needs to learn to trust his stuff more IMO.

[RedEye]

I personally think he nibbles too much. He's had a couple guys 0-2 or 1-2 today and tried to make the perfect pitch every time. He needs to learn to trust his stuff more IMO.

So that would suggest that he still can improve and on the spectrum from Cueto to Daniel Cabrera, he's more Cueto.

[OnBaseMachine]

So that would suggest that he still can improve and on the spectrum from Cueto to Daniel Cabrera, he's more Cueto.

I think that's a fair assessment. I think we saw in ST what he could do...but in ST he knew he didn't have to nibble because it was only spring training. Now it looks like he's trying to make that perfect pitch every time. I think it's something that is easily fixable.

As I type this the stupid ump squeezes him on two straight pitches.

[REDREAD]

As we speak, EV has 70 pitches through 3 innings against the Cubs. The trend continues...

It's a double edged sword. Obviously, you'd like guys to be pitch efficent.
But DanO took it to the extreme with his whole "pitch to contract" philosphy which resulted in "pitch to gopher ball"

We all want high K guys... usually, these guys come with high pitch counts as well, unless their control is spectacular, which is kind of a rare breed.

I think as Volquez gets experience, he will be more efficent, but I don't want the Reds to overwhlem him with suggestions. He's having some success and making a positive, even though he's not efficient. Since we've got the 12 man staff and some starters to eat innings, I'm not overly concerned with letting Volquez just pitch his game and stay comfortable. I don't want him to think too much at this point and get away from what's working.

[RedEye]

111 pitches in 5 innings today. FWIW.