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Thread: Reds minor leaguers Top 5 (offensive)

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    Reds minor leaguers Top 5 (offensive)

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    Last edited by Redman15; 04-17-2008 at 07:29 PM.

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    Re: Reds minor leaguers Top 5 (offensive)

    Thanks for the research Redman. As I have stated before, if you are in the Dayton area and have the opportunity to see Todd Frazier bat, it is quite a treat. He is going to be one good ballplayer.

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    Re: Reds minor leaguers Top 5 (offensive)

    Code:
    Ranks	Level	Name  	      Avg (min 30 AB's)	   Ranks  Level	  Name           HR
    1	AAA	Hairston JR    .429		   T1	  A-	  Waring         5
    2       A-      Jones          .412                T1     A-      Frazier        5
    3	AA 	Szymanski      .386		   T2	  AAA	  Bruce	         3
    4	A+	Turner	       .375		   T2	  A+	  Valaika        3
    5	A-	Waring	       .373		   T2	  A+	  Francisco      3
    								
    								
    Ranks	Level	Name  	      Hits		   Ranks  Level   Name  	 OBP
    1	A+	Valaika	        20		   1	  A-	  Jones	        .487
    2	A+	Francisco	19		   2	  AAA	  Hairston JR	.467
    3	A-	Waring	        19		   3	  A-	  Frazier	.464
    4	AAA	Bruce	        18		   T4	  AA	  Gutierrez	.429
    5	AAA	Hairston JR	18		   T4	  A+	  Stubbs	.424
    								
    								
    Ranks	Level	Name  	      Runs		   Ranks  Level	  Name  	 SLG
    1	A-	Fraizer	        16		   1	  AAA	  Hairston JR	.786
    2	A-	Waring	        14		   2	  A-	  Frazier	.778
    3	A+	Stubbs	        12		   3	  AA 	  Szymanski	.705
    4	AA	Bolivar	        11		   4	  A-	  Waring	.686
    T5	A+	Heisey	        10		   5	  A-	  Jones	        .647
    T5	A-	Jones	        10					
    								
    								
    Ranks	Level	Name  	      RBI's		   Ranks  Level   Name  	 OPS
    1	A-	Waring	        15		   1	  AAA	  Hairston JR	1.252
    2	A+	Valaika	        13		   2	  A-	  Frazier       1.242
    3	AA 	Szymanski       13		   3	  A-	  Jones	        1.134
    4	A-	Phipps	        12		   4	  AA 	  Szymanski	1.130
    5	A+	Francisco	11		   5	  A-	  Waring	1.067
    
    
    Ranks	Level	Name  	        BB		   Ranks  Level   Name      	 K's
    1	A-	Frazier	        11		   1	  A-	  Reed	         18
    2	AA 	Gutierrez	10		   2	  A-	  Waring	 17
    3	A+	Stubbs	         8		   T3	  AA 	  Szymanski	 16
    4	A-	Bolivar	         7		   T3	  A+	  Stubbs	 16
    5	AA 	Tatum	         6		   5	  A-	  Menchaca	 15

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    Re: Reds minor leaguers Top 5 (offensive)

    Code:
    Ranks	Level	Name  	      Avg (min 60 AB's)	   Ranks  Level	  Name           HR
    1	A+	Turner	       .395		   1	  A-	  Frazier        6
    2       A-      Jones          .377                T2     A-      Waring         5
    3	A+	Valaika	       .359		   T2	  AAA	  Bruce	         5
    4	A+	Stubbs	       .333		   T2	  AA 	  Szymanski      5
    5	AAA	Bruce	       .326		   T5	  A+	  Francisco      4
    						   T5	  A+	  Valaika        4		
    								
    Ranks	Level	Name  	      Hits		   Ranks  Level   Name  	 OBP
    1	A+	Valaika	        37		   1	  A+	  Turner	.449
    2	A+	Turner  	32		   2	  A-      Jones	        .441
    T3	A+	Stubbs	        29		   3	  AA	  Cumberland	.424
    T3	AAA	Bruce	        29		   4	  A+	  Stubbs	.416
    5	A+	Francisco	28		   5	  A-	  Frazier	.415
    								
    								
    Ranks	Level	Name  	      Runs		   Ranks  Level	  Name  	 SLG
    1	A-	Fraizer	        20		   1	  A-	  Jones	        .639
    2	A+	Stubbs          18		   2	  A-	  Frazier	.638
    T3	A+	Heisey	 	17		   3	  AAA	  Bruce	        .573
    T4	A-	Jones	        17		   4	  A+	  Valaika	.544
    T5	A-	Waring          16		   5	  A-	  Waring        .526
    T5	AA	Cumberland      16					
    								
    								
    Ranks	Level	Name  	      RBI's		   Ranks  Level   Name  	 OPS
    1	A+	Valaika		25		   1	  A-	  Jones 	1.081
    2	A+	Francisco	20		   2	  A-	  Frazier       1.052
    3	A-	Phipps          18		   3	  A+	  Turner         .956
    T4	A-	Fraizer	        17		   4	  AA 	  Cumberland	 .952
    T4	AAA	Bruce	        17		   5	  AAA	  Bruce	         .924
    
    
    Ranks	Level	Name  	        BB		   Ranks  Level   Name      	 K's
    T1	A-	Frazier	        14		   1	  A-	  Waring         30
    T2	AA 	Gutierrez	14		   2	  AA 	  Szymanski	 27
    T3	A+	Stubbs	        11		   T3	  A 	  Reed	         26
    T3	AA	Cumberland	11		   T3	  A+	  Stubbs	 26
    T3	AA 	Anderson        11		   5	  A+	  Francisco	 25

  6. #5
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    Re: Reds minor leaguers Top 5 (offensive)

    Quote Originally Posted by Redman15 View Post
    Code:
    Ranks	Level	Name  	      Avg (min 60 AB's)	   Ranks  Level	  Name           HR
    1	A+	Turner	       .395		   1	  A-	  Frazier        6
    2       A-      Jones          .377                T2     A-      Waring         5
    3	A+	Valaika	       .359		   T2	  AAA	  Bruce	         5
    4	A+	Stubbs	       .333		   T2	  AA 	  Szymanski      5
    5	AAA	Bruce	       .326		   T5	  A+	  Francisco      4
    						   T5	  A+	  Valaika        4		
    								
    Ranks	Level	Name  	      Hits		   Ranks  Level   Name  	 OBP
    1	A+	Valaika	        37		   1	  A+	  Turner	.449
    2	A+	Turner  	32		   2	  A-      Jones	        .441
    T3	A+	Stubbs	        29		   3	  AA	  Cumberland	.424
    T3	AAA	Bruce	        29		   4	  A+	  Stubbs	.416
    5	A+	Francisco	28		   5	  A-	  Frazier	.415
    								
    								
    Ranks	Level	Name  	      Runs		   Ranks  Level	  Name  	 SLG
    1	A-	Fraizer	        20		   1	  A-	  Jones	        .639
    2	A+	Stubbs          18		   2	  A-	  Frazier	.638
    T3	A+	Heisey	 	17		   3	  AAA	  Bruce	        .573
    T4	A-	Jones	        17		   4	  A+	  Valaika	.544
    T5	A-	Waring          16		   5	  A-	  Waring        .526
    T5	AA	Cumberland      16					
    								
    								
    Ranks	Level	Name  	      RBI's		   Ranks  Level   Name  	 OPS
    1	A+	Valaika		25		   1	  A-	  Jones 	1.081
    2	A+	Francisco	20		   2	  A-	  Frazier       1.052
    3	A-	Phipps          18		   3	  A+	  Turner         .956
    T4	A-	Fraizer	        17		   4	  AA 	  Cumberland	 .952
    T4	AAA	Bruce	        17		   5	  AAA	  Bruce	         .924
    
    
    Ranks	Level	Name  	        BB		   Ranks  Level   Name      	 K's
    T1	A-	Frazier	        14		   1	  A-	  Waring         30
    T2	AA 	Gutierrez	14		   2	  AA 	  Szymanski	 27
    T3	A+	Stubbs	        11		   T3	  A 	  Reed	         26
    T3	AA	Cumberland	11		   T3	  A+	  Stubbs	 26
    T3	AA 	Anderson        11		   5	  A+	  Francisco	 25
    Great to see "Stubbs" pop up on that list several times.

  7. #6
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    Re: Reds minor leaguers Top 5 (offensive)

    Shouldnt be much longer til Waring and Frazier move up to A+. Those boys are lighting it up.

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    Re: Reds minor leaguers Top 5 (offensive)

    I would say the impressiveness of Stubbs showing up on the charts is somewhat overvalued. The part moreso impressive is has yet to show up in the Homerun category. The way i see it one of the various reasons he struggled so much from the get-go was the fact he was drafted as a future '5' tool guy. The thing is his power was only consistent when he approached the plate as a power hitter, which in turn drastically affected his K rate, lower his walks as he swung at everything, and killed his average. Having been in the minors long enough i think he's either grown more careless as the the reds expectations of him and grown into his own player, or the reds in fact have lowered there expectations on him easing of some of his pressure to achieve that 30/30 player type status. Im sure i drastically overexlained a quite simple explanation but im really thinking of thim as that Corey Patterson type player. not even close. but regardless lets just hope he keeps it up.

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    Re: Reds minor leaguers Top 5 (offensive)

    Quote Originally Posted by sweetsport06 View Post
    I would say the impressiveness of Stubbs showing up on the charts is somewhat overvalued. The part moreso impressive is has yet to show up in the Homerun category. The way i see it one of the various reasons he struggled so much from the get-go was the fact he was drafted as a future '5' tool guy. The thing is his power was only consistent when he approached the plate as a power hitter, which in turn drastically affected his K rate, lower his walks as he swung at everything, and killed his average. Having been in the minors long enough i think he's either grown more careless as the the reds expectations of him and grown into his own player, or the reds in fact have lowered there expectations on him easing of some of his pressure to achieve that 30/30 player type status. Im sure i drastically overexlained a quite simple explanation but im really thinking of thim as that Corey Patterson type player. not even close. but regardless lets just hope he keeps it up.
    Actually Stubbs hit a HR last night. As for Stubbs lowering his walk rate by swinging for the fences.... he has one of the better walk rates in the system, so I don't think thats it at all. Brandon Waring, sure.... Drew Stubbs, not at all. I don't think the Reds ever expected him to be a 30/30 type guy. 20/30 type guy, yeah probably but never 30/30. As for him showing up being overvalued by showing up on the list.... I find it hard to believe any great defensive centerfielder that is hitting .348/.425/.543 with 13 steals in 13 attempts is in any way overvalued.

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    Re: Reds minor leaguers Top 5 (offensive)

    where should i begin. first off starting in 2006 up to 2008 minor league seasons stubbs K/BB ratio was 2:1, 2.1:1, and 2.5:1. basically his strikeout rate has been on the rise the past three seasons while his walks have dropped, not at any drastic rate; but they've dropped. in 2006 stubbs averaged 1 HR every 35 AB in '07 1HR every 41.5 AB and in '08 1HR every 92 AB's. so while his homerun rate has significantly dropped his strikeouts have risen and his walks dropped. this isnt anything made up. its facts. you cant rebuke the facts. now i completely agree with you that waring is far worse in that aspect as his K/BB rate was 4/1 in '07 and 6.1/1 in '08. but you could go off on a rather large list of players with a considerably better walk rate in the reds system than stubbs. for instance take a look at chris heisey. not only has his career .982 FP% beat stubbs .981 FP% while both have played in the exact same amount of games, but his stolen base percentage is 78% also beating stubbs rate of 74%. both players are very similar in regards to there minor league stats aside from heisey walking just as much as he K's. basically the only reason i say that stubbs is overvalued is because he truly is. heisey has just as much power. K's less, steals more bases, boasts just as good defense, just wasnt picked in the first round as stubbs was. that is just one of the various reasons stubbs is overvalued. really come on, must i continue?

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    Re: Reds minor leaguers Top 5 (offensive)

    Quote Originally Posted by sweetsport06 View Post
    where should i begin. first off starting in 2006 up to 2008 minor league seasons stubbs K/BB ratio was 2:1, 2.1:1, and 2.5:1. basically his strikeout rate has been on the rise the past three seasons while his walks have dropped, not at any drastic rate; but they've dropped.
    In 2006 Stubbs strikeout % was 25.4, in 2007 it was 24.7 and this year its 25.5. His strikeout rate is essentially the exact same at the three levels he has played at. His walk rate over the same time has been 12.7%, 12% and 10.4%. His wak rate has slowed down just ever so slightly.

    in 2006 stubbs averaged 1 HR every 35 AB in '07 1HR every 41.5 AB and in '08 1HR every 92 AB's. so while his homerun rate has significantly dropped his strikeouts have risen and his walks dropped. this isnt anything made up. its facts. you cant rebuke the facts.
    Yeah, and if he hits a HR tonight his HR rate in 2008 goes to roughly 1 per 48 AB's. Its way to early to be making HR per AB rates. Lets also take into account the leagues. So while I "can't rebuke facts" I will argue that they certainly aren't enough data available to make much of it. On the flip side, his XBH rate has gone up every year. He had an XBH% of 30.1%, 34.3% and 40.6% at each stop.

    now i completely agree with you that waring is far worse in that aspect as his K/BB rate was 4/1 in '07 and 6.1/1 in '08. but you could go off on a rather large list of players with a considerably better walk rate in the reds system than stubbs. for instance take a look at chris heisey. not only has his career .982 FP% beat stubbs .981 FP% while both have played in the exact same amount of games, but his stolen base percentage is 78% also beating stubbs rate of 74%. both players are very similar in regards to there minor league stats aside from heisey walking just as much as he K's.
    Well aside from the fact that fielding % if a horrible stat that tells me next to nothing about a players actual defensive ability. As for stolen base %, do I need to remind you that Stubbs was playing with turf toe last year and hamstring issues in 2006? Dudes healthy this year and we are seeing it on the basepaths as he is 13 for 13 early on and on pace for 65-70 steals this year.

    basically the only reason i say that stubbs is overvalued is because he truly is. heisey has just as much power. K's less, steals more bases, boasts just as good defense, just wasnt picked in the first round as stubbs was. that is just one of the various reasons stubbs is overvalued. really come on, must i continue?
    Except thats not close to true. Heisey doesn't have as much power. His isolated power numbers last year in Dayton were lower than Stubbs and his isolated power numbers this year in Sarasota are much lower than Stubbs. He does strikeout less. He may have better SB success in the past when Stubbs was hurt, but he isn't the stolen base threat that a healthy Drew Stubbs is. Heisey is 3 for 4 this year. Stubbs is 13 for 13 and has the most steals in the minors without being caught. Its not really close. As for the defense, Stubbs is in a different class than Heisey is out in CF.

    Feel free to continue if you want, but the only thing you were right on was that Heisey strikes out less.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 04-29-2008 at 06:59 PM.

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    Re: Reds minor leaguers Top 5 (offensive)

    on the contrary your just a sophistical arguer. going on about some facts or statistics completely inane to my original points doesnt make you any smarter. ive proven my point so theres nothing else to say. 9,526 posts dont make you any more perspicacious to the reds than myself.

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    Re: Reds minor leaguers Top 5 (offensive)

    i dont know why you can just 'assume' drew stubbs could hit a homer tonight. took him long enough to get his first one. id say 92 ABs gives a pretty good idea of there performance for that season. but you argued me wrong. so okay it doesnt. but that further proves what i believe in his .348 average an 13-13SB all being flaws. your right it'll even itself out soon enough.

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    Re: Reds minor leaguers Top 5 (offensive)

    Quote Originally Posted by sweetsport06 View Post
    on the contrary your just a sophistical arguer. going on about some facts or statistics completely inane to my original points doesnt make you any smarter. ive proven my point so theres nothing else to say. 9,526 posts dont make you any more perspicacious to the reds than myself.
    I strayed from the point of your post? You said Stubbs was overvalued then tried to use Chris Heisey as a similar player to Stubbs to validate your point. I argued that the two aren't really close to being similar players and backed it up with some stats to prove my point.

    Now if you want to continue to say that Stubbs is overvalued, feel free to do so. However you need to show what his value is, then show why its not accurate. At least to me, you haven't done that at all.

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    Re: Reds minor leaguers Top 5 (offensive)

    Quote Originally Posted by sweetsport06 View Post
    i dont know why you can just 'assume' drew stubbs could hit a homer tonight. took him long enough to get his first one. id say 92 ABs gives a pretty good idea of there performance for that season. but you argued me wrong. so okay it doesnt. but that further proves what i believe in his .348 average an 13-13SB all being flaws. your right it'll even itself out soon enough.
    So where in his .348 and 13 steals is there a flaw? If you want to say his strikeouts, I will give you that. But where is a flaw in 13 for 13 in steals?

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    Re: Reds minor leaguers Top 5 (offensive)

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    In 2006 Stubbs strikeout % was 25.4, in 2007 it was 24.7 and this year its 25.5. His strikeout rate is essentially the exact same at the three levels he has played at. His walk rate over the same time has been 12.7%, 12% and 10.4%. His wak rate has slowed down just ever so slightly.


    Yeah, and if he hits a HR tonight his HR rate in 2008 goes to roughly 1 per 48 AB's. Its way to early to be making HR per AB rates. Lets also take into account the leagues. So while I "can't rebuke facts" I will argue that they certainly aren't enough data available to make much of it. On the flip side, his XBH rate has gone up every year. He had an XBH% of 30.1%, 34.3% and 40.6% at each stop.


    Well aside from the fact that fielding % if a horrible stat that tells me next to nothing about a players actual defensive ability. As for stolen base %, do I need to remind you that Stubbs was playing with turf toe last year and hamstring issues in 2006? Dudes healthy this year and we are seeing it on the basepaths as he is 13 for 13 early on and on pace for 65-70 steals this year.



    Except thats not close to true. Heisey doesn't have as much power. His isolated power numbers last year in Dayton were lower than Stubbs and his isolated power numbers this year in Sarasota are much lower than Stubbs. He does strikeout less. He may have better SB success in the past when Stubbs was hurt, but he isn't the stolen base threat that a healthy Drew Stubbs is. Heisey is 3 for 4 this year. Stubbs is 13 for 13 and has the most steals in the minors without being caught. Its not really close. As for the defense, Stubbs is in a different class than Heisey is out in CF.

    Feel free to continue if you want, but the only thing you were right on was that Heisey strikes out less.


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