Why does everyone hate Arroyo now?

[RedEye]

Over the past few days, I feel like I've read at least ten separate posts in different threads about how Arroyo is "no longer a major league average starter," about how Wayne's move to get him is "no longer working out," and about how we should "trade him immediately in order to get back a RH bat" or "replace him with Matt Belisle as soon as possible" (not direct quotes, but I think you are familiar with these complaints). While I don't necessarily disagree with trading Bronson for the right return, I can't help but think that our group brain is going a little bit batty right now.

Arroyo is only two starts into his season so far. He is 0-1, but has also struck out 14 batters in 15 innings, and has posted similar peripheral numbers to his underrated 2007, when a 9-15 record obscured the fact that, minus a bit of luck, he was performing very similarly to 2006. That year, if you remember, we all loved him and nearly crowned him prince of Cincinnati.

Starting pitching is not this franchise's new calling card. Not yet. Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez might dominate the rest of the season, but they also might implode and get demoted for more seasoning. Matt Belisle might come back and perform like Bronson's easy replacement, but he also might not come back at all. Homer Bailey isn't ready and Josh Fogg sucks.

Yes, the Reds do need a few more things on this team to make it go. However, I don't think unloading one of the two proven, steady performers in the rotation is a wise way to go about it--and certainly not when we're only 14 games into the season. Arroyo is not Johan Santana. He's not even Aaron Harang. But he's also not Josh Fogg, he's reasonably young, and he's signed to a fairly decent contract for a few years. Let's not rush to get rid of him. Not yet.

[JinAZ]

Arroyo's xFIP, which helps adjust for the unusually high (and probably unlucky) HR/F rate he's had thus far, is 4.29. That's actually lower than he's averaged over the last seaveral years (League average is around 4.40). His strikeout rate has been up so far this season, and his walk rate is right where it normally is. Fangraphs has his fastball velocity at down 0.7 mph this season, which I have to think is within the margin of error on those measures. ...

So I'm not seeing anything in his numbers to indicate that he's a different pitcher than he has been the last two seasons. We'll see, of course, but I'm not particularly worried about him right now.

The time to trade him was after the 2006 season, when his ERA topped his FIP by a good 0.8 runs. I wouldn't be upset about a trade now if they got a good return, but it seems like they'd be best served by waiting until his stock rose a little bit.
-j

[cincyinco]

A voice calling for posters to be more level headed?

First week, we were good, better than the diamond backs they said... Playoff bound!

Now we're doomed. Its hopeless. We stink. We'll be lucky to win 70.

Yawn. The melodrama this season for whatever reason has gone hysterically overboard. The game theads are a dump and almost unbearable.

The sad thing is only ORG members are posting in that thead. You would think such members would know better than to spout some of the crud I've read. Keep an even keel, level head. Its pretty pathetic - but that's just this man's humble opinion.

I view those posts calling for the trade of arroyo after 2 starts the same as I do those calling the offense a bust 15 games in, or those calling for krivsky's head so soon... Rubbish, short sighted, and usually a waste of time to read.

Feel free to slam my post all you want, but coming off a pretty fun offseason for a redszone poster, this has been my least favorite last 3 or so weeks on here... Ever...

[Topcat]

I like Arroyo he will be solid. As a whole i discount most reactionary posters as fans who have very little understanding of the Game. If that comes across as arrogant so be it. It is far better than fans who are fair weather and judge a player by few games and decide to throw players under the bus.

[Screwball]

A voice calling for posters to be more level headed?

First week, we were good, better than the diamond backs they said... Playoff bound!

Now we're doomed. Its hopeless. We stink. We'll be lucky to win 70.

Yawn. The melodrama this season for whatever reason has gone hysterically overboard. The game theads are a dump and almost unbearable.

The sad thing is only ORG members are posting in that thead. You would think such members would know better than to spout some of the crud I've read. Keep an even keel, level head. Its pretty pathetic - but that's just this man's humble opinion.

I view those posts calling for the trade of arroyo after 2 starts the same as I do those calling the offense a bust 15 games in, or those calling for krivsky's head so soon... Rubbish, short sighted, and usually a waste of time to read.

Feel free to slam my post all you want, but coming off a pretty fun offseason for a redszone poster, this has been my least favorite last 3 or so weeks on here... Ever...

What he said.

[mth123]

A voice calling for posters to be more level headed?

First week, we were good, better than the diamond backs they said... Playoff bound!

Now we're doomed. Its hopeless. We stink. We'll be lucky to win 70.

Yawn. The melodrama this season for whatever reason has gone hysterically overboard. The game theads are a dump and almost unbearable.

The sad thing is only ORG members are posting in that thead. You would think such members would know better than to spout some of the crud I've read. Keep an even keel, level head. Its pretty pathetic - but that's just this man's humble opinion.

I view those posts calling for the trade of arroyo after 2 starts the same as I do those calling the offense a bust 15 games in, or those calling for krivsky's head so soon... Rubbish, short sighted, and usually a waste of time to read.

Feel free to slam my post all you want, but coming off a pretty fun offseason for a redszone poster, this has been my least favorite last 3 or so weeks on here... Ever...

This is the post of the year.

[OldXOhio]

A voice calling for posters to be more level headed?

First week, we were good, better than the diamond backs they said... Playoff bound!

Now we're doomed. Its hopeless. We stink. We'll be lucky to win 70.

Yawn. The melodrama this season for whatever reason has gone hysterically overboard. The game theads are a dump and almost unbearable.

The sad thing is only ORG members are posting in that thead. You would think such members would know better than to spout some of the crud I've read. Keep an even keel, level head. Its pretty pathetic - but that's just this man's humble opinion.

I view those posts calling for the trade of arroyo after 2 starts the same as I do those calling the offense a bust 15 games in, or those calling for krivsky's head so soon... Rubbish, short sighted, and usually a waste of time to read.

Feel free to slam my post all you want, but coming off a pretty fun offseason for a redszone poster, this has been my least favorite last 3 or so weeks on here... Ever...

Serenity Now

[Falls City Beer]

I think this team is somewhere between Arizona and San Francisco on the talent scale.

Why the hatin'.

[Falls City Beer]

I also think there are too many "Posts of the Year" given out. Perhaps we should consult the Academy. That seems like a violation.

[redsmetz]

A voice calling for posters to be more level headed?

First week, we were good, better than the diamond backs they said... Playoff bound!

Now we're doomed. Its hopeless. We stink. We'll be lucky to win 70.

Yawn. The melodrama this season for whatever reason has gone hysterically overboard. The game theads are a dump and almost unbearable.

The sad thing is only ORG members are posting in that thead. You would think such members would know better than to spout some of the crud I've read. Keep an even keel, level head. Its pretty pathetic - but that's just this man's humble opinion.

I view those posts calling for the trade of arroyo after 2 starts the same as I do those calling the offense a bust 15 games in, or those calling for krivsky's head so soon... Rubbish, short sighted, and usually a waste of time to read.

Feel free to slam my post all you want, but coming off a pretty fun offseason for a redszone poster, this has been my least favorite last 3 or so weeks on here... Ever...

I'm with you on this. While I'm the eternal optimist, I think I've been fairly tempered in the realities we face this season. I think we have a core that can lead to a good team - but we're not there yet. The weaknesses, at times, at glaring and this is one of those times where they're fairly apparent. But it is very early. We've got some folks due back and some roster shuffling to do when those things occur. Any team can use bolstering and it wouldn't hurt here, but I think Bronson's one of the bright spots.

[gonelong]

A voice calling for posters to be more level headed?

First week, we were good, better than the diamond backs they said... Playoff bound!

Now we're doomed. Its hopeless. We stink. We'll be lucky to win 70.

Yawn. The melodrama this season for whatever reason has gone hysterically overboard. The game theads are a dump and almost unbearable.

The sad thing is only ORG members are posting in that thead. You would think such members would know better than to spout some of the crud I've read. Keep an even keel, level head. Its pretty pathetic - but that's just this man's humble opinion.

I view those posts calling for the trade of arroyo after 2 starts the same as I do those calling the offense a bust 15 games in, or those calling for krivsky's head so soon... Rubbish, short sighted, and usually a waste of time to read.

Feel free to slam my post all you want, but coming off a pretty fun offseason for a redszone poster, this has been my least favorite last 3 or so weeks on here... Ever...

As a collective RZ will always be bi-polar, its just a by product of the success of the site. RZ has 2350 active members. If just 3% of them are reactionary we have 70+ posters going schitzo at any one time.

GL

[Always Red]

I think the real reason Arroyo's catching some heat this year thus far is that his production is slipping while his contract (next year and in the future) is increasing.

I hope Arroyo can return to form. His curveball fits in nicely with a staff of younger, harder throwers.

[Johnny Footstool]

We're fans, and fans are irrational and impatient.

[BRM]

I also think there are too many "Posts of the Year" given out. Perhaps we should consult the Academy. That seems like a violation.

Post of the Year.

Sorry, FCB.

[WVRedsFan]

We're fans, and fans are irrational and impatient.

I totally agree on this. If we didn't love the Reds, we wouldn't bother.

Of course, after eight years, I'm not sure impatient is the correct word.