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Thread: .500 ball at the All-Star break

  1. #1
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    .500 ball at the All-Star break

    If this Reds team can stay around the .500 mark (+/- three or four games) then I think they will finish the season with 86-88 wins and possibly win the division. I truly believe that. Right now the Reds are just sifting through what they got in Patterson, Josh Fogg, and Castro and such. I think by the time the All-Star break comes around we'll see the retreads filtered out and replaced with Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Josh Roenicke, and Bill Bray and maybe Adam Rosales coming off the bench. These guys are all good enough to come up and give us that big talent boost to make a run at the playoffs ala Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera with Marlins in 2003. You may think I'm full of it but I'm very high on these kids and the talent they possess. You heard it here first by OBM on early Sunday morning, April 20th, 2008 - if this current bunch can keep us around .500 come the ASB then the Reds will finish with 86+ wins and in the thick of the playoff race. Am I crazy or does anyone else agree with me?

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    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: .500 ball at the All-Star break

    I agree. However, I see it more likely that this bunch keeps em' around 5 games below .500, and then the call-ups bring it closer to .500...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  4. #3
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: .500 ball at the All-Star break

    I agree with most of what you say. This is not much fun to watch, but I find myself not panicing yet.
    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
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    Member redsrule2500's Avatar
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    Re: .500 ball at the All-Star break

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    I agree with most of what you say. This is not much fun to watch, but I find myself not panicing yet.
    Weird. Me either. Maybe I'm too used to it, maybe the higher hopes, and maybe stupidity. I think we can get better, and will be better soon.
    redsrule2500
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  6. #5
    Oy Vey! Red in Chicago's Avatar
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    Re: .500 ball at the All-Star break

    While this hasn't been a cakewalk of a schedule so far, June is certainly no picnic. June has 12 interleague games, which the Reds completely choke on every year. Things aren't likely to improve with foes like the Red Sox, Yankees, Indians and Blue Jays. Add in a four game set against the Phillies, and I'm looking for another April like performance.

    I've not been happy with the team's play so far this year, but it was really only the 3 game sweep against the Pirates that kills me. Those are series that you need to win...at least one or two games out of three.

    Unless they right the ship fairly quickly, it's going to be a very long year. I'm certainly not giving up and will continue to watch every game possible. The thing we have going in our favor, is that really only the Cubs and Brewers are probably better. The Cubs will always be the Cubs, and if Ben Sheets goes down and Gagne doesn't perform, they won't be able to run away with the division.

  7. #6
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    Re: .500 ball at the All-Star break

    Sorry, don't see it. I project this team will win no more than 75 games. The difficulty of the inter-league schedule is a significant part of that projection. Remember we were just swept--dominated really--by a team, the Pirates, that certainly projects as one of the five worst in baseball.

  8. #7
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: .500 ball at the All-Star break

    If this team is going to be successful, I think you've outlined the likely path. Even more to the point in my mind is that the Reds need to be ready to sprint out of the gate in 2009. We need to vet certain guys this year (Coffey, for example) so that we're not spending next April and May doing this all over again. To me it boils down to 3 questions:

    1.) At what point will the Reds make the shift for sorting through options to deciding on them?
    2.) Will they make the "right" choices?
    3.) How will the players play when given the opportunity?

    I don't see us winning unless the young talent is on the roster and playing full time -- Votto, Bruce, Bray, perhaps Bailey. However, I recognize that even if they get the right guys, they might not be quite up to speed sufficiently to push us in to competition this year. I just hope we don't pull a 2006 and and lean on veterans at the expense of building out the foundation -- especially when the young guys are likely to do as well, if not better, than more "proven" options might.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-20-2008 at 03:12 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #8
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: .500 ball at the All-Star break

    To me this is a .500 team that needs everything to break their way for 85 wins. Unfortunately, they're laying a turd for April even though they haven't had to deal with any injury that should legitimately be considered a big blow.

    The good news? They could still finish .500 for the month. St Louis isn't going anywhere (though the Cubs and Brewers are legitimately better than the Reds). EE and Dunn are going to hit much better. CF can be upgraded dramatically with a simple call to Louisville.

    The season isn't over. It's not even in the need a miracle stage yet. That said, if they're a .500 team at the all-star break, they could easily be 10 to 12 games back.
    "This isnt stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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    Re: .500 ball at the All-Star break

    Agree that young guys need to filter up to the big club. I expect it to start fairly soon and hopefully continue for the rest of the season. There's good young talent in AA and AAA.

    But if anyone thinks the problem is Patterson, Fogg and Castro, they are denying the reality.

    It's not the backups. It's not the table setters, although Patterson certainly has slumped.

    It's the middle. The core.

    Phillips, Griffey and Dunn are the main offensive players and simply need to produce more. Phillips seems to be swinging for homers. Griffey also seems to be swinging for homers. Dunn I think has the best approach, but is just prone to long slumps.


    This is the middle of your order and it doesn't produce consistently.

  11. #10
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: .500 ball at the All-Star break

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    If this team is going to be successful, I think you've outlined the likely path. Even more to the point in my mind is that the Reds need to be ready to sprint out of the gate in 2009. We need to vet certain guys this year (Coffey, for example) so that we're not spending next April and May doing this all over again. To me it boils down to 3 questions:

    1.) At what point will the Reds make the shift for sorting through options to deciding on them?
    2.) Will they make the "right" choices?
    3.) How will the players play when given the opportunity.
    Very good post. I think the FO is on the right track as far as sorting through options - Stanton's release allows us to look at some of the young relievers, and Fogg's demotion allows us to see if Belisle can be the league-average guy we all hope for. Votto is now playing every day as well, which should let us see if he can hit LHP well enough to be the full-time guy there. Eventually we should see Bray and Bruce. If an injury hits a pitcher, which it most certainly will at some point, the FO will probably want to get another look at Bailey up here. IMO this year, especially the first half, is all about compiling the data that the FO needs to make those personnel decisions you are talking about.

  12. #11
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    Re: .500 ball at the All-Star break

    My confidence in the front office's ability to make the right decisions has been lessened by the acquisition of Patterson and Fogg. A major league team with no offense has Jay Bruce in Louisville while splitting center field time between Corey Patterson and Norris Hopper. Should this give one confidence in the fo's ability to sort through the decisions it must make? Frankly I think the only hopeful thing, as far as that goes, is that Griffey and Dunn will likely be gone after this season and the decision-makers will finally be compelled to make the decisions that have needed to be made for some years (and which, in my view, the much undervalued Dan O tried to make when he tried to move Griffey). It is time, right now, to move to the post-Griffey future, and the money that will be required to keep Dunn can better be spent on more than one part of that future.


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