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Thread: $22.5 Million dollars

  1. #16
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    Re: $22.5 Million dollars

    Its odd. His strength -- finding decent players on the cheap -- conflicts with his biggest deficiency -- an itchy contract finger. The former makes the latter less necessary and the latter makes the former harder to do.
    The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

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  3. #17
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: $22.5 Million dollars

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    xFIP disagrees:

    Fogg: 4.99, 4.96, 5.11, 5.25
    Saarloos: 5.49, 4.71, 5.13, 4.94
    Look, I think Fogg is bad. I just think that Saarloos is about the worst pitcher in the big leagues. I have a bias against guys who walk more than they K. Saarloos 2 most recent season of pitching any reasonable number of innings as a starter, he walked more than he K'd. He's better as a reliever, but that just proves why Fogg is better. He can at least work as a starter with reasonable number 5 expectations. Also, Fogg was pitching in Coors field while Saarloos was in the very forgiving Oakland park with the huge foul territory that helps pitchers record lots of outs that they would not in most other parks.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  4. #18
    RZ Chamber of Commerce Unassisted's Avatar
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    Re: $22.5 Million dollars

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I don't think I've ever seen people turn on a guy so quickly as some have with Arroyo. He's given up a few homers in a handful of starts and suddenly he's dead weight. Let's completely ignore the 450 IP of sub 4.00 ERA ball the past two years and focus on 4 starts.
    I think all of the public love for and playing music in the greater Boston area has greased the skids for the fall of Mr. Arroyo in the hearts and minds of Reds fans.
    /r/reds

  5. #19
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: $22.5 Million dollars

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    What if, by the deadline, all the numbers, including the luck component, point to Arroyo being a sub-average pitcher this season? Is it smart to pay him 10-11 million in 09-10?
    Yes, FCB. That's clearly what I meant. [/sarcasm]

    If Arroyo is a sub-average pitcher, then obviously paying him $11M isn't smart. And if, by the deadline, all the numbers point to Arroyo being a sub-average pitcher this season, then such complaints about the extension might have some merit.

    But today, Arroyo has 4 starts and 21 IP. The numbers this season don't point to anything yet. The reality is that for the last 450 IP, he's been an above average starting pitcher, both in quantity and quality. At this point, putting Arroyo in the same category as Juan Castro and Mike Stanton is a gross overreaction.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  6. #20
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    Re: $22.5 Million dollars

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post

    But today, Arroyo has 4 starts and 21 IP. The numbers this season don't point to anything yet. At this point, putting Arroyo in the same category as Juan Castro and Mike Stanton is a gross overreaction.
    What if you just want to get something in return for him before he becomes a prohibitive contract?

  7. #21
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: $22.5 Million dollars

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Yes, FCB. That's clearly what I meant. [/sarcasm]

    If Arroyo is a sub-average pitcher, then obviously paying him $11M isn't smart. And if, by the deadline, all the numbers point to Arroyo being a sub-average pitcher this season, then such complaints about the extension might have some merit.

    But today, Arroyo has 4 starts and 21 IP. The numbers this season don't point to anything yet. The reality is that for the last 450 IP, he's been an above average starting pitcher, both in quantity and quality. At this point, putting Arroyo in the same category as Juan Castro and Mike Stanton is a gross overreaction.

    Agree.

    I also see FCB's point. The innings are piling up on Arroyo while his price tag is rising. I can see the asset becoming a liability fairly quickly, but since above average rotation arms are so scarce, they really need to let it play out for now. I could see re-evaluating at the deadline if 1.) the Reds are out of it 2.) the Bailey's, Maloney's and Thompson's of the world continue to progress 3.) Belisle and the Kids have establsihed themselves as real deal major league starters. If Arroyo has become Matt Morris by then, so be it.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  8. #22
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    Re: $22.5 Million dollars

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Agree.

    I also see FCB's point. The innings are piling up on Arroyo while his price tag is rising. I can see the asset becoming a liability fairly quickly, but since above average rotation arms are so scarce, they really need to let it play out for now. I could see re-evaluating at the deadline if 1.) the Reds are out of it 2.) the Bailey's, Maloney's and Thompson's of the world continue to progress 3.) Belisle and the Kids have establsihed themselves as real deal major league starters. If Arroyo has become Matt Morris by then, so be it.
    Can the Reds afford to be this conservative?

  9. #23
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: $22.5 Million dollars

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    What if you just want to get something in return for him before he becomes a prohibitive contract?
    That's the kind of logic that has you always aiming for the next horizon.

    There's no reason to believe that Arroyo's contract will become prohibitive other than that it's a 3 year deal for a SP with some innings on him. As far as risks go, Arroyo is hardly on the track to "prohibitive". Will the ratio of production to cost (aka value) shift over the next few years? Of course it will -- such is the nature of nearly every long term deal.

    But at the end of the day, you have to have enough talent to win. That's where it ends. Sure, it'd be nice to have an 100 win team all making the league minimum. But it doesn't work that way. You have to pay for some of your talent.

    If you think Arroyo is on the verge of becoming replacement level, I'd say that's a ridiculous notion rooted in a terribly small sample size of innings this season. If you think he's likely to get progressively less valuable over the life of his contract, I would agree 100%. However, jumping from that statement to "want(ing) to get something in return for him before he becomes a prohibitive contract" is quite the leap. That logic would justify trading away a lot more than Arroyo.

    I can see a case for trading away Arroyo now. Given that his value will likely go down and given that we're not likely going to win this season, I could definitely support the right deal -- it's an argument I was making this time last season. However, your return in that trade better be part of a picture which actually increases the talent of our 25 man roster in 2009 and 2010. Just trading him away for the sake of it to get "something" in return, particularly when that something is even less likely to provide value than Arroyo (Inge) just doesn't make sense.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 04-20-2008 at 08:36 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  10. #24
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: $22.5 Million dollars

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Can the Reds afford to be this conservative?
    If the team thinks Bailey et al is ready to assume the spot in 2009, I still think the contract could be moved in the off-season. They may not get as much back, but if this team wants to retain any credibilty with its fan base, it needs to keep Arroyo around for now. Losing that credibilty may cost more money over the next couple of years than Arroyo's deal. I guess if they made such a great deal that they would be a solid winner, the fans would still show up. I just don't see that deal out there until the deadline anyway.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  11. #25
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    Re: $22.5 Million dollars

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    There's paying $11M for $8M in production, and then there's paying $8.5M for $0 in production (Stanton, Castro, Freel, Fogg). Paying "extra" for somebody who gives you positive production is less than ideal. But paying anything, and using roster spots, on guys who give you zero or sub-replacement production can completely torpedo your chances of competing.
    Like I said in another post, it's not a good thing when you have to make a big signing/extension look better by comparing it with other disasters by the same regime.

    Arroyo could turn it around, no doubt. But even if he does, was it worth the risk of extending a pitcher that far out?

    Even if it works out it was still a questionable move.

  12. #26
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    Re: $22.5 Million dollars

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Can the Reds afford to be this conservative?
    Sure they can. They're owned by a billionaire who has a stated goal of producing winning baseball in Cincinnati.

    The real question is, can they afford to be as reactionary as many here feel they need to be? People are ready to anoint Cueto & Volquez as SureThings™ after a handful of starts apiece, ready to proclaim Bailey has turned the corner after a handful of minor league innings, and ready to show Arroyo the door after a handful of bad starts. I'm sure we should've run Harang out of town after he got lit up on opening day 2 years ago too. Arroyo has a history of delivering solid performance for this team -- why does everyone seem to think (other than a mysterious talent-zapping monster) he's not going to do the same thing this year?

    Maybe Bronson should slide more and get his uniform dirty. Apparently emulating scrappy white guys who run really hard on every play is the only way to get appreciated by the fans* in this town.

    * - Note, this is not directed at you (or anyone else on this thread), FCB.
    Last edited by Caveat Emperor; 04-20-2008 at 08:35 PM.
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  13. #27
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: $22.5 Million dollars

    Quote Originally Posted by Always Red View Post
    http://www.thelotd.com/lance/blog/2008/04/19/sunday


    I think it is far too early to include Patterson, Freel, Hatteberg, Ross, Arroyo and Coffey on that list. All of those guys can and most probably will either stick with the team all year or be traded (along with their contracts) to other teams, for value. None of the guys mentioned above are in danger of being just dumped.

    Stanton, Castro and maybe Fogg are writeoffs from the bottom line. The Stanton money hurts the worst. I try to remember (when I am being kind to Wayne) that at the time Stanton was signed, the Reds had virtually no bullpen at all, and he was actually a positive acquisition. I think Fogg can possibly stick all year as a long reliever/spot starter. I think he'll get another chance or two before the Reds cut him loose.
    I don't get this kind of thinking. In fairness to Wayne, we should go on record early as to whether we think it is a good move to sign these guys to such contracts. I'd much rather hear from Redszoners now than later on when the call is crystal clear.

    I think this thread was kind in that it didn't include A. Gon. I think WK has erred greatly in the number of years he's given these guys. In the case of Stanton and Castro, he gave them multiple years when it seemed that no one else was beating down the door to sign them. In Freel's case we had him "controlled" for a few more years. There was no reason to commit us for three years. Ditto for Ross.

    As for Arroyo, I really like him in my rotation but not at $10mill+ a year. That kind of money is reserved for aces in my book. In fact if you include his signing bonus and possible buyout for 2011, he will make more in 2009 and 2010 than Aaron Harang. Source: http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/200...i-reds_24.html

    Nothing against Bronson Arroyo, but he's not worth $11-13mill/yr. If you think he is I'd be curious to know what other pitchers being paid 2 yr/$25mill you think are worse than Bronson.

    If I'm Castellini, I'm gettin' pretty ticked at all my money he's asking me to eat everytime the subject of a Castro, Stanton, Freel or whoever comes up during this year.

  14. #28
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    Re: $22.5 Million dollars

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    There's no reason to believe that Arroyo's contract will become prohibitive other than that it's a 3 year deal for a SP with some innings on him. As far as risks go, Arroyo is hardly on the track to "prohibitive". Will the ratio of production to cost (aka value) shift over the next few years? Of course it will -- such is the nature of nearly every long term deal.
    There's every reason to believe that his contract has already become prohibitive. The way I see it, he is now untradeable unless the Reds eat the lion's share of the contract. I doubt any other team in baseball would take over Bronson's contract as it stands now. Because of that, it was a bad move on WK's part

  15. #29
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: $22.5 Million dollars

    Quote Originally Posted by edabbs44 View Post
    Like I said in another post, it's not a good thing when you have to make a big signing/extension look better by comparing it with other disasters by the same regime.

    Arroyo could turn it around, no doubt. But even if he does, was it worth the risk of extending a pitcher that far out?

    Even if it works out it was still a questionable move.
    There is nothing to turn around -- that's the problem with this whole conversation. It's based on some faulty idea that he's quickly headed down the path to replacement level. Arroyo has had a few less than stellar starts. The end. It happens every year. It happens to every starter. Sometimes it happens in July, sometimes it happens in April.

    For example, take July 26 - Aug 10 2006.

    Arroyo had 4 starts.
    25.1 IP
    9 HR
    7.11 ERA

    And yet, 2006 ended up pretty well for Arroyo. Heck, look at all of July and June of 2006 -- an ERA over 5.00 and a Miltonesque HR rate. It happens and it's not predictive of future failure -- or success -- of anything.

    Arroyo will likely decrease in value of the life of his current deal and there is a very good argument to be made for cashing in Arroyo for something with better long term value and a non-zero short term value. But that argument has absolutely nothing to do with his past 4 starts or the level of production we should expect out of him in 2008. And it certainly does not conclude with trading him for a mediocre spare part like Brandon Inge.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  16. #30
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: $22.5 Million dollars

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    There is nothing to turn around -- that's the problem with this whole conversation. It's based on some faulty idea that he's quickly headed down the path to replacement level. Arroyo has had a few less than stellar starts. The end. It happens every year. It happens to every starter. Sometimes it happens in July, sometimes it happens in April.

    For example, take July 26 - Aug 10 2006.

    Arroyo had 4 starts.
    25.1 IP
    9 HR
    7.11 ERA

    And yet, 2006 ended up pretty well for Arroyo. Heck, look at all of July and June of 2006 -- an ERA over 5.00 and a Miltonesque HR rate. It happens and it's not predictive of future failure -- or success -- of anything.

    Arroyo will likely decrease in value of the life of his current deal and there is a very good argument to be made for cashing in Arroyo for something with better long term value and a non-zero short term value. But that argument has absolutely nothing to do with his past 4 starts or the level of production we should expect out of him in 2008. And it certainly does not conclude with trading him for a mediocre spare part like Brandon Inge.
    I agree to a point.

    Every decline starts somewhere. Obviously you believe that BA's hasn't begun. Some think this is it. I happen to think that he has some value and that he will pitch better, but not enough for this team to drop $22MM on over the next two years. Especially when they will probably be ready to take that serious step towards contention in his last year or the year after.

    If they can get some solid long-term value for him now I would hop on it qithout thinking twice. But I think that the task is rather large, since there is some doubt in his effectiveness and he is owed a good chunk of change over the next 2 years.


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