$22.5 Million dollars

[*BaseClogger*]

I am confident that the Reds can wave around 2yrs/$25mill and attract a better pitcher than Bronson and we haven't even touched the possibility of injury when committing to a pitcher long term like they have with Arroyo.

This is not a risk I'd have taken were I running this team.

Who? Carlos Silva just got 4/$48M on the open market. It's hard to find a pitcher that will take a 2-year contract at that discounted of a price...

[RedsManRick]

I am confident that the Reds can wave around 2yrs/$25mill and attract a better pitcher than Bronson and we haven't even touched the possibility of injury when committing to a pitcher long term like they have with Arroyo.

This is not a risk I'd have taken were I running this team.

Really? Who?

[Sea Ray]

Like the KC Royals (Gil Meche) or the Milwuakee Brewers (Jeff Suppan)? Or the money we poured into a closer?

Oh, and Derek Lowe is much better than a #4 or #5...

The Suppan and Meche deals were widely criticized. I was referring to Derek Lowe. I doubt a small market team will be offering him a Gil Meche deal but I could be wrong. Do you think otherwise?

If you think Derek Lowe is better than a #4 or #5 then I have no problem with that. That begs the question: Is Derek Lowe comparable to Bronson Arroyo or might he be a tick better?

[*BaseClogger*]

The Suppan and Meche deals were widely criticized. I was referring to Derek Lowe. I doubt a small market team will be offering him a Gil Meche deal but I could be wrong. Do you think otherwise?

If you think Derek Lowe is better than a #4 or #5 then I have no problem with that. That begs the question: Is Derek Lowe comparable to Bronson Arroyo or might he be a tick better?

I agree with you that I don't see Lowe getting a Meche type deal (as in five years), mostly because he will be 35 going on 36 years old. I would think a 3/$36M is more likely. I certainly think a small market team like the Reds could offer a contract like that.

Now, lets compare their last three seasons:

Bronson Arroyo
2005: 4.51 ERA, 4.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.96 HR/9, 37.9% GB, 5.38 xFIP
2006: 3.29 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9, 38.2% GB, 4.40 xFIP
2007: 4.23 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.18 HR/9, 35.3% GB, 4.76 xFIP

Derek Lowe
2005: 3.61 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9, 63.7% GB, 3.53 xFIP
2006: 3.63 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.60 HR/9, 67.0% GB, 3.80 xFIP
2007: 3.88 ERA, 6.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9, 65.0% GB, 3.50 xFIP

Bronson Arroyo had his career reborn in Cincy. Pitching in the National League, he was much tougher to hit and racked up more strikeouts. Due to some spectacular luck, he had a huge 2006. He was about the same pitcher in 2007, but posted a more reasonable ERA. It has become evident this season that GABP is not a conducive environment for his flyball tendencies. However, his fielding indepent numbers point to a guy who you can count on for 200 league-average innings (4.50/4.75 ERA).

While Arroyo would be a good fit for spacious Dodger Stadium, Derek Lowe is the kind of starting pitcher the Reds should target for GABP. Only Brandon Webb is a more groundball dominant pitcher. He even made guys miss at a better rate than Arroyo last year. You would expect his ERA to be greatly aided by his home park, but his xFIP says he is consistently a very good pitcher. He is just a much better pitcher than Bronson Arroyo (mostly due to the groundballs). I would expect about 200 innings of a 3.75/4.00 ERA out of Derek Lowe in GABP.

Bronson Arroyo is a #3
Derek Lowe is a #2

[dfs]

I think you can pretty much play this game with ANY franchise out there.

A couple of GM truism's the reds haven't really violated. Don't pay TOP dollar unless it's top level talent. The reds haven't sigend any Mike Hampton type disaster deals. That's a GOOD thing.

"FOR MY TASTE" the reds are far too willing to pay the free agent market for talent whose equivalece already exists in the system or the 6 year minor league free agent list. But it's not the money that is hamstringing the organization, it's the PT that goes to these stiffs.

[RedsManRick]

The Suppan and Meche deals were widely criticized. I was referring to Derek Lowe. I doubt a small market team will be offering him a Gil Meche deal but I could be wrong. Do you think otherwise?

If you think Derek Lowe is better than a #4 or #5 then I have no problem with that. That begs the question: Is Derek Lowe comparable to Bronson Arroyo or might he be a tick better?

Suppan and Meche were widely criticzed as much for the length of the deals as the size. Arroyo is on a 3 year deal (including '08) plus a team option. Arroyo is 1 year older than Meche, 2 years younger than Suppan.

Arroyo has a better career ERA and FIP than Suppan or Meche and better track record of health than both of them as well.

Yet, you've still completely avoid the question of why you think Arroyo will be a #4/#5. This is the basis of your argument and you've provided no basis for your projection.

Derek Lowe is a bit better than Arroyo. He's also 4 years older. And if you think that anybody, big market or small will get Lowe for 2 and 25, you're fooling your self.

Arroyo is no bargain and nobody is claiming he is. In fact, he might be slightly overpaid, particularly in 2009 and 2010. But that, in and of itself, doesn't make the argument for getting rid of him. You really need to show how trading him makes the Reds a better team in more than a vague, fully conceptual, "we can buy better production" argument without any supporting evidence to the point. I'd even get on board at that point. But until I see how the math works, it's fantasy GM at it's worst -- something I've been very guilty of many times.

I'm not a fan of big contracts for mediocre talent. But the reality is that spending less money won't make the Reds a better team. The reality of baseball today is that at a certain point, every dollar spent is increasingly inefficient. Unfortunately, it takes wins and wins take production. I would have liked Arroyo to have been flipped last year before the deal was signed, coming off a monster year, and when he still had a sweetheart contract. His trade value outstripped his realizable value easily then. Now not so much. And unless you can actually turn his money in to better production, shedding a contact just because it's not a good deal simply leaves us with a smaller payroll, and fewer wins.

So, how does trading Arroyo make the Reds better? Tell me that we can trade Arroyo, Coffey, and Hatteberg for Jose Tabata and Alan Horne, and then sign Lowe for 3 and 36, then I'm definitely all ears. But if it's Arroyo for Inge (or the like) followed by signing Jon Garland or a big time injury risk like Sheets or Burnett for $15M a year, I'll pass.

[Topcat]

I still think it's wayyyy too early to be upset about Arroyo.

I agree , Bronson will be a big key for us this season. fickle fans throw guys under the bus way to fast

[REDREAD]

'08 TOTAL: 22.6 mill

Don't forget to add Gonzo in there as well.
I said from the day of signing that Wayne should could just bottom feed and find someone for min salary that would be comparable. The proof is in the pudding as Wayne himself found two better options.. Harris and Keppinger.

Much like Stanton, Gonzo was an obviously declining player with no "plus" skills that was given a long term deal..

[REDREAD]

Also, as I said at the time, I don't mind Arroyo's deal so much.

It certainly is riskier than some would like, but let's go back to the time Arroyo was extended. Arroyo was one of two starting pitchers pitching well for us. He felt as though he had gotten the shaft by getting traded here after signing a low contract (and I can see his point of view on this). Then he sees Harang get a big pay day.

At this point, the Reds have to reach out with an extension to Arroyo or pretty much accept that he's going to walk when his contract is up (which would've been the end of this year). For a team with very questionable pitching, it was the right thing to extend Arroyo, even if it meant overpaying 3 or 4 million for him (does anyone think we overpaid by more than 4 million?)

Just like the Reds had to overpay to get Cordero here. It's ok to overpay for a few good players. That doesn't kill you, especially on a team like the Reds that really doesn't have that many big contracts. I'd much rather see them overpay Arroyo by 3-4 million/year than waste money on the Stantons and Gonzos of the FA world. That's what's killing us financially, IMO.

[Sea Ray]

Yet, you've still completely avoid the question of why you think Arroyo will be a #4/#5. This is the basis of your argument and you've provided no basis for your projection.

Derek Lowe is a bit better than Arroyo. He's also 4 years older. And if you think that anybody, big market or small will get Lowe for 2 and 25, you're fooling your self.

Arroyo is no bargain and nobody is claiming he is. In fact, he might be slightly overpaid, particularly in 2009 and 2010. But that, in and of itself, doesn't make the argument for getting rid of him.

Is Arroyo a # 4 or # 5? He might be right now. I can foresee a future of Harang, Cueto and Volquez as our #1-3. If Bailey or Belisle improve Arroyo could drop to #5.

I agree Lowe will get good money but it probably will come from a large market. I also think he is not comparable to Arroyo. He's much better.

My comment on Arroyo was that I would not have signed him to that deal. As for trading him now, I think his contract makes that such an impossibility it's not worth discussing.

[RedsManRick]

Is Arroyo a # 4 or # 5? He might be right now.

Based on what? His last 21.1 IP -- as opposed to the prior 450 suggesting he's a solid #3?

[Falls City Beer]

Lowe is much better? I don't think so. Better maybe, but I wouldn't sign a 35-year-old pitcher to a three year contract at his price. I'd just as soon keep Arroyo--or trade him at the deadline.

[Sea Ray]

Just like the Reds had to overpay to get Cordero here. It's ok to overpay for a few good players. That doesn't kill you, especially on a team like the Reds that really doesn't have that many big contracts. I'd much rather see them overpay Arroyo by 3-4 million/year than waste money on the Stantons and Gonzos of the FA world. That's what's killing us financially, IMO.

I disagree that the Reds don't have that many big contracts. They have quite a few for a small market team. Harang, Dunn, Griffey,Cordero, Phillips and Arroyo is quite a bit for Cincinnati to handle. I don't see such top heavy contracts for Cleveland, Minnesota, Oakland and Milwaukee.

[Sea Ray]

Who are you spending Arroyo's money on? Now remember that, in the spirit of this thread, you already have $11M to spend from the other contracts which magically went away. The Reds aren't pinching pennies. They have significant production coming from very little cost over the next 2-3 years both in the pitching staff (Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Burton, Bray) and the lineup (Votto, Bruce, EE, Phillips to some extent).

If they'd not extended Arroyo he'd still be here this year. You'd still get his production this year. The contract only comes into play starting in 2009. As for where we'd spend the money, we'll have to see who's on the market next winter.

[Sea Ray]

Based on what? His last 21.1 IP -- as opposed to the prior 450 suggesting he's a solid #3?

Based on my thinking that Arroyo will decline over the next couple of years and Cueto and Volquez will improve. Do you disagree with that projection? How do you project Arroyo vs Harang, Cueto and Volquez in say 2010? Where do you project Bronson to fall among those 4?