Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 22

Thread: Bronson Arroyo Will Return to Form

  1. #1
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    North Kansas City, Mo
    Posts
    5,914

    Bronson Arroyo Will Return to Form

    I did some poring over Arroyo's stat lines and came up with a conclusion. Bronson isn't losing his stuff. He hasn't become a marginal pitcher overnight or lost his ability to perform. He's momentarily lost some command. That's heartening because it's correctable for a veteran pitcher if it doesn't correspond with a loss in "stuff" or a problem with health.

    So far BA has pitched exactly 1/10th as many innings as last season. 21.3 compared to 210.7 last year. So lets multiply everything by 10 and compare the numbers to see if a problem is apparent.
    '07 is the first number, 08 (multipliedx10) the second:

    walks 63/80
    hbp 2/20
    wp 4/10

    hits 232/270
    homers 28/60

    Ks 158/180

    It's immediately apparent that he's missing bats even while getting hit hard. His K numbers are back to a 2006 level when he fanned 189. In fact the K ratio is slightly higher. To me that says the stuff is there.

    What's lacking is command of his breaking stuff. At this seasons pace he'll be handing out 35 more free passes via walks and Hit batsmen than last year. He's also slinging wild pitches up there. Half as many already as last year in 1/10 the innings. The killer though is the long ball. At this clip he'll allow 60. He's hanging a lot of breaking stuff up in the zone. He was somewhat gopher prone the past 2 years at GAB but 28 a year is manageable (esp. for the park). 60 gets you the Hall of Infamy.

    Now lets look at counts. Hitters put the ball in play against Arroyo in these counts:
    Even 23.5% 2007 27.5%
    Ahead 33% 2007 38.5%
    Behind 43.5 2007 34%


    Now Harang: And Cueto:
    Even 19% 20.5%
    Ahead 51% 48%
    Behind 30% 31.5%


    As comparison, Harang & Cueto are pitching even or ahead in the count when a batter puts a ball in play 70% of the time. Bronson just 56%. Even more significant Aaron is AHEAD of the hitters 51% of the time when a ball is put in play. Bronson? 38.5% Bronson has also gone to a long count (2-2, 3-1 or 3-2) when a ball is finally put in play 40 times in 21.3 innings. Harang? Just 33 times in 27 innings (not including Sunday's start). Cueto just 23 long counts in 26.1 innings. Just included Harang to give an idea what command and efficiency mean and how poorly Bronson's is right now. Cueto just to show how close he parallels Harang's numbers as far as command.

    How bad does the command issue hurt Arroyo?
    behind in counts BA = .346 OBP = .514 SP = .846 OPS = 1.340
    ahead in counts BA = .259 OBP = .259 SP = .481 OPS = .740

    In other words when he gets behind Bronson takes twice the beating.

    The weather may be related too. In innings 1-3 BA is getting beat up. Here's his 1-3 and 4-6 splits:
    Innings 1-3 HR 6 BA .340 OBP .418 SP .766 OPS 1.184
    Innings 4-6 HR 0 BA .289 OBP .333 SP .368 OPS .702

    He may be having trouble warming up - he IS better as the game goes on but he is so inefficient right now he's done by the 5th or 6th. It's been a cold, wet, windy April so far and that may be playing a role. However in looking at 06 and 07 he had very good April's both years. His '07 season was ruined by May and June when he pitched horribly. His other 4 months last year look just like his '06 numbers. His splits for May and June last year in fact, look a lot like this April. Falling behind, inefficient and getting hit hard when behind. He came out of that. I believe he'll come out of this funk, too.

    Bronson's problem is getting behind, into a lot of long counts and having to come into hitters as a result. If you've watched he's elevating his pitches a bit, too, hanging the curve more than usual. That's all command. His curve still fools hitters when he's keeping it in the corners and low. It's also a matter of being just a bit "off" - that's all it takes for a Bronson Arroyo type to go from #2-#3 pitcher to dreck. A 10% change in command is what it boils down to. Command meaning both controlling the strike zone and consistently throwing quality pitches (as in not hanging the curve).

    I'm convinced he can still have a solid season. I'd be much more concerned if he wasn't striking batters out and if he had never had this kind of slump before.

    The predictions that he'll get worse as the weather gets warmer, that he's washed up, that he isn't suited for GAB or that he's suddenly not a good pitcher anymore are unfounded, imo. He is exactly what he is -a solid mid rotation starter that offsets the hard throwers well. He's in a slump. Curveballers are especially prone to spells like this. He'll snap out of it.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member redsrule2500's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2001
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    3,215

    Re: Bronson Arroyo Will Return to Form

    fantastic post and very ingteresting! Thanks for the info, and I agree!
    redsrule2500
    Go Reds!
    Baseball Bliss
    Im a normal guy blessed with the ability to hit a baseball. - Sean Casey

  4. #3
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    14,873

    Re: Bronson Arroyo Will Return to Form

    Good post Jake.

    I agree that Arroyo hasn't lost his ability overnight and if he's healthy, he'll come out of it. If I were the Reds, with an extra starter on hand, I'd take the opportunity to give Arroyo a break. Let him rest a bit on a short DL stint, followed by a rehab start or two to get his command back. He was worked hard the last two seasons and the "freshening" of his arm can only help for the remainder of the long season. The resulting inning reduction for 2008, should be helpful for 2009 as well. It might be a worthwhile investment.

    Sometimes a lack of command can be a signal of something wrong physically. If it isn't serious, the rest should allow him to snap back. If it is serious, he shouldn't be out there anyhow. If it isn't physical, holding his innings down now should still pay off later. He's not really helping the team by going out there and getting shelled, so sidelining him wouldn't be a big loss at this time.

    I know we all want to get Fogg out of the rotation with Belisle back, but Arroyo has been just as bad so the rotation upgrade still exists and if Arroyo can come back at his expected effectiveness, it will be a long term win for this franchise. We're only talking about three or four more starts.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  5. #4
    Man Pills
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    25,047

    Re: Bronson Arroyo Will Return to Form

    The only thing recommending Arroyo right now is his K's. I realize it's only 4 starts, but frankly his poor command mixed with his power numbers/against are very worrisome. Something is going to have to change--this isn't just bad luck. This is a bad performance.

  6. #5
    Member blumj's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Northern MA
    Posts
    4,666

    Re: Bronson Arroyo Will Return to Form

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    The only thing recommending Arroyo right now is his K's. I realize it's only 4 starts, but frankly his poor command mixed with his power numbers/against are very worrisome. Something is going to have to change--this isn't just bad luck. This is a bad performance.
    He's done this before, though. Some of you sound just like we did before the Sox traded him. I guess, at some point, one of his bad streaks will turn into a permanent condition, but probably not this soon. He's still relatively young, as long as he's healthy. The corresponding good streak is likely begin any time now.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  7. #6
    Man Pills
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    25,047

    Re: Bronson Arroyo Will Return to Form

    Quote Originally Posted by blumj View Post
    He's done this before, though. Some of you sound just like we did before the Sox traded him. I guess, at some point, one of his bad streaks will turn into a permanent condition, but probably not this soon. He's still relatively young, as long as he's healthy. The corresponding good streak is likely begin any time now.
    He's done this before--after Narron's pushing him in start after start; in the heat of mid-summer when a flyball pitcher can expect to see more of his FBs turn into homers. I don't recall him struggling like this in a cold April. As I said, he's not been unlucky so far, he's been bad in earnest. If he turns it around, it will be because he's made some adjustments. I hope he does. But when it comes to pitching in Cincinnati, Murphy's Law prevails.

  8. #7
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,092

    Re: Bronson Arroyo Will Return to Form

    Great post Jake. Obviously it's impossible to tell the future, but control is something that comes and goes, and we've always known that Arroyo gets killed when he doesn't have it. It's fully reasonable to expect him to come around.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #8
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Indianapolis
    Posts
    6,449

    Re: Bronson Arroyo Will Return to Form

    Good stuff. You know he's not going to give up 60 home runs this year--he'll be fine...

    Also, hits don't appear to be luck-aided: 21.7% LD, .333 BABIP
    Last edited by *BaseClogger*; 04-21-2008 at 10:27 AM.
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  10. #9
    Man Pills
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    25,047

    Re: Bronson Arroyo Will Return to Form

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Good stuff. You know he's not going to give up 60 home runs this year--he'll be fine...
    Not 60, but 35-40 is a distinct possibility.

  11. #10
    Reds 5:11 coachw513's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    642

    Re: Bronson Arroyo Will Return to Form

    A couple of questions arising from the discussion:

    1. Is there data somewhere that suggests that Arroyo has struggled in cooler weather in the past (not simply April, but something that records that gametime temps were 60 or below, etc)??
    2. As pitchers age, what is more likely to go- command or velocity??...Is a pitcher like Arroyo who relies so heavily on command of breaking stuff more likely to "fall off" or does history show the FB/Changeup pitcher falling faster because the velocity drop in the FB makes the change much more hittable??
    3. Finally, is there a metric that demonstrates why so many of Bronson's mistakes are ending up as HR right now (other than the problems with command as indicated above)??...some guys make lots of mistakes, but don't give up many gopher balls, but on the other hand, Cueto is seemingly making few mistakes, but the ones he does are leaving the park??...is it simply FB/GB tendencies??...or are there other factors??

    I tend not to know answers but am always led to ask more questions here...so this is in no way Socratic, as I do not know the answers...though IMHO Arroyo is still very much a positive in our rotation and as we view him in terms of economic performance...
    Last edited by coachw513; 04-21-2008 at 10:28 AM. Reason: to indicate that I did read the 1st post (a great one)


    You cannot defeat an ignorant man in an argument!
    -William Gibbs McAdoo

    Though many of us here are sure trying

  12. #11
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,092

    Re: Bronson Arroyo Will Return to Form

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Good stuff. You know he's not going to give up 60 home runs this year--he'll be fine...

    Also, hits don't appear to be luck-aided: 21.7% LD, .333 BABIP
    I'm slowly warming to the point that while LD% varies, it's not as "luck" driven as one might suspect. Todd Coffey is the perfect case study. When you don't have great command -- not control as in BB/9, but command as in the ball going where you want it to -- you end up leaving a disproportionate amount of pitches out over the heart of the plate. Those hung breaking pitches, straight fastballs down the middle, etc. get crushed with regularity.

    With Arroyo's unique repertoire, a loss of command is deadly. It might lead to more strikeouts as guys fish a bit more, but it will also lead to walks and a lot of extra base hits. I'm confident he'll come around, but it's not going to be pretty until he does.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #12
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    34,844

    Re: Bronson Arroyo Will Return to Form

    Very nice post Jake. I'm not ready to give up on Bronson yet either. I don't think it's reasonable for us to expect him to ever repeat his 2006 performance, but I do think he'll rebound to give us 200 innings of 4.30 ERA ball this season and that's fine as a number three or four starter.

  14. #13
    "Let's Roll" TeamBoone's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2000
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    12,841

    Re: Bronson Arroyo Will Return to Form

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    If I were the Reds, with an extra starter on hand, I'd take the opportunity to give Arroyo a break. Let him rest a bit on a short DL stint, followed by a rehab start or two to get his command back. He was worked hard the last two seasons and the "freshening" of his arm can only help for the remainder of the long season.
    Is Arroyo injured? I may be wrong, but they can't put him on the DL "just because"... can they?
    "Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

  15. #14
    Man Pills
    Join Date
    Dec 2000
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Posts
    25,047

    Re: Bronson Arroyo Will Return to Form

    Quote Originally Posted by TeamBoone View Post
    Is Arroyo injured? I may be wrong, but they can't put him on the DL "just because"... can they?
    I don't know, but I'd guess the union wouldn't be too fond of a "just-because" DL stint; however, if the player and team agree it's in both groups' best interest, it would be a hard thing to stop.

  16. #15
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    North Kansas City, Mo
    Posts
    5,914

    Re: Bronson Arroyo Will Return to Form

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I'm slowly warming to the point that while LD% varies, it's not as "luck" driven as one might suspect. Todd Coffey is the perfect case study. When you don't have great command -- not control as in BB/9, but command as in the ball going where you want it to -- you end up leaving a disproportionate amount of pitches out over the heart of the plate. Those hung breaking pitches, straight fastballs down the middle, etc. get crushed with regularity.

    With Arroyo's unique repertoire, a loss of command is deadly. It might lead to more strikeouts as guys fish a bit more, but it will also lead to walks and a lot of extra base hits. I'm confident he'll come around, but it's not going to be pretty until he does.
    Line Drive BA Against is high for all pitchers but so far it's .875 against for Arroyo. That's - well, that's hard to accomplish frankly. Almost out of sheer statistical weight I don't know if hitters can sustain that rate of success if he does nothing to improve, which I hope won't be the case. Actually, when you look at he raw numbers - 27 hits, 8 walks, 2 hbp, 6 homers in 21 innings you have to wonder how the heck he's kept his era below Josh Fogg's level. Because he can still pitch, that's why. He's squirming out of a lot of jams when he has to. He's getting into too many, though, and any pitcher that keeps getting in trouble inning after inning will see it roosting on the powerlines eventually.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25