I agree DanO had some bad ideas. But any GM would've came in and killed the tandem system and the "must take the first pitch" system.
Probably because Smitherman just didn't have talent. The Reds made bad drafts that year, unlike DanO, who made good drafts.You know what used to happen when the Reds would have a supposed big bat post a .775 OPS and drop off the prospect radar (e.g. Steve Smitherman)? That kid would disappear forever.
And again, I will point out that Wayne ran Amalarez and the other scouts which found those crown jewels.
I guess I disagree with the premise that the Reds have always had major league talent in their system (eg Smitherman) but somehow ruined it.
For example, was Olmedo ever really a legit ML prospect? Of course not.
All the coaching in the world wouldn't have made him a major leaguer.
The Reds didn't ruin him at all. They hyped him (and other nonprospects up) to give the fans hope.
Under Allen, the draft was obviously underfuned. People were signed based on signablitiy alone. Some of the blame also falls to Bowden who made bad choices with the money he had.
I don't ever remember reading this. I am not accusing you of making it up, but I have never heard of this. Still, Votto was thriving from 2002-2004.In fact, Votto was vocal about how the system around him was killing his game. O'Brien's regime had that kid thoroughly screwed up and headed down a real bad path.
He had one bad year in the minors. Doesn't seem thoroughly screwed up to me...
Votto had a good 2004. Homer and Cueto were just added to the system around that time. Isn't it reasonable to expect a high school kid like Homer and a 19 year old like Ceuto to struggle in their first pro seasons? It's not as if these guys were college grads and expected to dominate.Silly would be ignoring the stark evidence that talented kids like Votto were in trouble throughout the Reds system when DanO was in charge. Honestly, the only kid who experienced any sort of consistent success in 2004-5 was Chris Denorfia.
I just don't see how you can make a case.. In fact, by your reasoning, I could look up Wayne's draft class:
Stubbs OPSed 768 and 785 in his first seasons (2006-2007).
Mesoraco OPSed 580 in his first year.
As a comparison:
Votto OPSed in 2005, his only bad year, which seemed to indicate the Reds
screwed him up
Now, do I really think the Reds screwd up Stubbs and Mesoraco. Of course not, but that is the logic you are applying to Homer, Votto, and Ceuto.
Those three guys are good now. It's hard to say that DanO screwed them up and they would've never had careers if Wayne didn't swoop in and save them, but that's what you are claiming.
Maybe because it's his first pro season, and we shouldn't judge him on less than 50 IP, because it's a learning experience? If I was so inclined, I could probably generate a large list of good ML pitchers that had just as bad or worse first year minor league records..Overall 4.78 and 1.31 WHIP at the lowest rungs of the developmental ladder? How is that not struggling? I consider the fact that he only pitched limited innings in the DanO regime to be a blessing. Think of all the deprogramming he didn't have to endure.
Other than Votto, all these guys basically only had one year of minor league experience. It's a weak judgement. Are you ready to give up on Stubbs, Moresco and the rest of Wayne's draftees that didn't dominate in their first year of pro ball?Give him credit for what? Sure, they got acquired during his reign, but none of them were thriving.
Votto dominated the minors in every year but 2005. Who knows why. But he recovered. He probably recovers regardless of who the GM is, simply because he's a great hitter.
Not accurate. Here's baseball America's 2005 top 10 prospect list. This was published in Jan 2005.It took O'Brien's regime less than a year to destroy the top 10 prospects list he inherited when he took the job and he was well on his way to undermining every single good draft pick/minor league signing made during 2004 and 2005 (and there weren't many). Given the evidence, I doubt he'd have delivered a single one of those kids, save maybe Jay Bruce.
1. Homer Bailey, rhp
2. Edwin Encarnacion, 3b
3. Richie Gardner, rhp
4. Joey Votto, 1b
5. B.J. Szymasnki, of
6. Thomas Pauly, rhp
7. Todd Coffey, rhp
8. William Bergolla, 2b/ss
9. Tyler Pelland, lhp
10. Paul Janish, ss
Four of those guys made it to the major leagues. That's pretty darn good.
It's questionable whether #8-10 were legit prospects to begin with.
Who was ruined on that list? IIRC, Gardner battled injury problems.
Was BJ a legit prospect or a bad pick?
I can't find the 2004 list quickly off google, but we can go through that one as well.
I agree Krivsky could have and should have acquired more prospects from other teams, but you're missing Maloney, Bray, Burton and Hamilton. While Phillips and Volquez may not have had rookie status, they were young players not established in the majors (Volquez still isn't, but he's so far looking groovy). I'm also really starting to get interested by Sean Henry. He's like the opposite of Javon Moran. Here's yet another kid who's thriving in the new Reds system. It's epidemic these days. Seriously, how can you not spot the difference?
I just can't see the cause and effect clearly defined. Are we getting a rush of young talent now because we are picking better in the draft/trades/acquisions or is it because of Wayne's system changes.
I tend to think it's from better selection of players. As flawed as Jimbo's and DanO's minor league systems may have been, the truly good players were still able to thrive and make it to the bigs. When the Reds count on guys like Olmedo to contribute big (he was a top 10 prospect at one time), obviously they are going to fail, no matter how good the system is.
I think you are overestimating how important the minor league system is.
Someone like Ceuto is going to make it to the big leagues as long as his workload is managed in the minors to protect his arm. Someone like Dunn is going to make it no matter what. And like I said, bad prospects are never going to make it.
If the system was more important than the players selected, then how come Wayne's system hasn't produced major leaguers from lesser prospects? Shouldn't the marginal guys benefit even more than the #1 draft picks?