Doc sez Krivsky FIRED!

[princeton]

I'm pretty sure that we're on the Baltimore plan, not the Minnesota or St Louis or whatever.

Magowan Rules.

[BRM]

The Baltimore plan? Egad!

[M2]

A few random thoughts:

Never try to execute a plan that exceeds the length of your contract.

I'll take Jocketty's old school over Neal Huntington's new school eight days a week.

Castellini's at least up front and consistent about wanting to win now, though he clearly doesn't have much grasp of how to achieve it.

What I'd like to hear from Jocketty is what do the Reds need to add to take the next step.

[Falls City Beer]

The Baltimore plan? Egad!

Right--lots of evidence for *that* conclusion. But honestly, it's not as if Baltimore, were they in the NL Central, couldn't have captured a few NL Central crowns.

[M2]

I'm pretty sure that we're on the Baltimore plan, not the Minnesota or St Louis or whatever.

At least there will be lots of crab cakes.

[Falls City Beer]

What I'd like to hear from Jocketty is what do the Reds need to add to take the next step.

A smart guy like Jocketty will discover that this team, despite all the panegyrics, encomia, and love-letters for Wayne from Redszone on his skillful refashioning of the team, has a big ole bunch of work to do to get contention-ready.

[M2]

Oh, and here's a few random facts about Jocketty and the Cardinals.

So for this decade (2000-2007), the Cardinals have won the most games in the NL.

They are tied with the Yankees for most playoff series wins in all of baseball (8).

They have won twice as many playoff series as the next-best NL franchise (the DBacks, which won 3 of its 4 in 2001).

They are tied with the Braves for most NL playoff appearances this decade (6).

They and the Braves are the only two NL franchises not to lose 90+ games this decade. They are also tied for the most 95+ win seasons (4) and 100+ seasons (2). The 2003 Giants are the only other NL team to hit the century mark for wins.

I don't know that Jocketty can repeat that success, but it's one hell of resume.

[M2]

A smart guy like Jocketty will discover that this team, despite all the panegyrics, encomia, and love-letters for Wayne from Redszone on his skillful refashioning of the team, has a big ole bunch of work to do to get contention-ready.

He should already know what those things are. I'd like to hear his take on it.

[Falls City Beer]

He should already know what those things are. I'd like to hear his take on it.

I'm sure he does. He's an incredibly sober scrutinizer of his franchise.

And he will tell you; he's very open. I got to listen to his Sunday morning show in St. Louis when I lived there in 99-00, and it was a true pleasure to hear him weigh and measure his team's shortcomings. No mincing words, no "I know more than you, stupid press person" attitude--just forthrightness.

[westofyou]

At least there will be lots of crab cakes.

Humidity is right for the scene too.

[edabbs44]

Now, the problem with the "90 games were lost" argument is that most great GMs have lost big during the first 3 years of a rebuilding job. And you need a great GM in Cincy. So you really need a better argument. being a nice guy, I'll try to point you in the right direction here Ideally, what you'd like to be able to do is to look at what those great GMs accomplished during their first three years, as opposed to what poor GMs accomplished over their first three years. What are those differences, and did Krivsky's rebuilding job look more like that of a great GM or like that of a poor one? I'm confident that it's the former, because man, I've SEEN some bad GMs.

Have a look at the first three years of guys like Branch Rickey, Billy Beane, Mark Shapiro, etc. Compare them to the Dan O'Briens and others. stop all other arguments. Focus your efforts into something productive and interesting. Maybe you'll teach us something.

The problem with this point, while somewhat valid, is that this wasn't a true "rebuilding" job. Mark Shapiro came in and got rid of his better players to build for the future. Wayne added to his best players. Shapiro dropped payroll by a lot. Wayne broke the record for most money spent on a FA reliever. Shapiro has a valid reason for struggling in his first few years. Wayne has much less validity.

BTW, I only point out Shapiro in this discussion because I've been through his case before on this board. I never picked apart the Branch Rickey situation so I don't know if it is similar.

This is why I harped on this situation for so long. IMO, this team wasn't good enough to win right now (i.e. 2006-present). Most (outside of the FO) knew this. But they forged ahead anyway. Raising payroll, breaking FA records, picking up anyone who's had success along the way while not thinking about the future. The team could have gotten rid of some of their better players a year or two ago, such as Arroyo, Griffey and possibly Dunn. If they got solid return on those guys, could you imagine what 2010 would look like right now? Come on...it would be sick. But they needed to win then and now, which was a longshot. All that was accomplished by trying to win immediately was wasted money, bad residual contracts and two losing seasons.

Blame goes to all parties involved, including Bob.

[princeton]

Ok, I will look at Shapiro. Did he sign as many bad FAs as Wayne did? Did he eat as many contracts as he did? Did Shapiro have a fetish for picking up injuried players and hoping for the best? Did Shapiro largely ignore defense and offense? Did Wayne make any trades like Shaperio did? When did Wayne make a trade like Diaz for Hafner? When did Wayne make pick up a Sizemore?
When did Wayne make a trade like Edwardo Perez for Carbera? When did Wayne trade a guy with warts like Milton Bradley for a guy like Gutierez.

The only clear Shapero-like trade that Wayne did was taking Phillips from Shaperio Arroyo started off looking good, but now he's questionable.
Sure, we didn't give up much to get him. The talent exchange is good. But, it looks like Wayne made a mistake extending him.. another example of a bad idea negating a good one. At the time, I supported the Arroyo extension, despite many people on this board objecting to it.. but guess what? I was wrong on that one, just as Wayne was.

What's laughable is comparing Wayne to Shapero. Totally laughable.

I dunno. I like Shapiro a lot (fellow princeton alum). But I look over the first two years, and I see similarities:

major adds: 1. Sizemore acquisition, Hamilton acquisition. About the same, but Shapiro had to give up a lot and WK got JH for $50K. 2. Hafner acquisition, Philips acquisition.

if anything, I figure that WK is up a Keppinger, an Arroyo, a Burton. The other thing is that deals of vets for youth SHOULD make you look good in time, and WK would have done more of those but Cast didn't want that. Shapiro had an easier time of it as he had free reign.

losses about same: 89 for Shapiro's year 2, and overall a worse record. Overall: Krivsky's probably way ahead.

if I'm Castellini, I'm firing this Shapiro bum

[jmcclain19]

I find it most fascinating that people automatically blame Jocketty being fired in St. Louis because he couldn't stand the new school stat guys.

Lets not forget the guy worked for Sandy Alderson for a decade as the As Farm Director.

Everything I've heard and read about the St. Louis situation talked about it being 100% personallity based - Jocketty wanted credit and security for bringing a world series title to town, and instead he was continually marginallized & had his power reduced by ownership. I don't blame him for leaving.

I've actually heard Jocketty's name mentioned numerous times as being one of the more forward thinking GMs when it comes to analysis.

[princeton]

Oh, and here's a few random facts about Jocketty and the Cardinals.

So for this decade (2000-2007), the Cardinals have won the most games in the NL.

They are tied with the Yankees for most playoff series wins in all of baseball (8).

They have won twice as many playoff series as the next-best NL franchise (the DBacks, which won 3 of its 4 in 2001).

They are tied with the Braves for most NL playoff appearances this decade (6).

They and the Braves are the only two NL franchises not to lose 90+ games this decade. They are also tied for the most 95+ win seasons (4) and 100+ seasons (2). The 2003 Giants are the only other NL team to hit the century mark for wins.

I don't know that Jocketty can repeat that success, but it's one hell of resume.

yep, and he should be given immense power as a result of that resume, and as a result of the fact that he's the last talented GM that's going to work for Cast for a long time.

but once an owner meddles, he can't always stop himself.

[Falls City Beer]

I've actually heard Jocketty's name mentioned numerous times as being one of the more forward thinking GMs when it comes to analysis.

He is. This narrative that's been cooked up about the victory of "new school" vs. "Walt school" in St. Louis is absolute goatfeces.

It was a money issue.