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Thread: Am I looking at this correctly?

  1. #1
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    Am I looking at this correctly?

    I see Stubbs nice BA and good stolen base numbers and it appears he has made some progress. What concerns me (and if someone has already mentioned this -sorry for the redundance) is his BA when he puts the ball in play (.500). That kind of BA cannot be substained. Point being, it's way to early to call his improvement a bonadide success.

    Be interesting to see what his stats would be if his babip was normailized ( around .330, correct). Has he turned himself into a different kind of hitter? I'm thinking of a slap and dash approach. Those guys seem to have higher babip's.

    Otoh, it's still a good start and his sb rates are good to look at.

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    Re: Am I looking at this correctly?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    I see Stubbs nice BA and good stolen base numbers and it appears he has made some progress. What concerns me (and if someone has already mentioned this -sorry for the redundance) is his BA when he puts the ball in play (.500). That kind of BA cannot be substained. Point being, it's way to early to call his improvement a bonadide success.

    Be interesting to see what his stats would be if his babip was normailized ( around .330, correct). Has he turned himself into a different kind of hitter? I'm thinking of a slap and dash approach. Those guys seem to have higher babip's.

    Otoh, it's still a good start and his sb rates are good to look at.
    It can when you have a 37% line drive rate. Its not like he is being lucky with his BABIP, he is murdering the baseball. BABIP is generally line drive rate + .120. Well .370+.120=.490. Now, I don't think he will sustain a 37% line drive rate, but everything he has done so far is based on what he has done, not luck. Add in that he has some of the best speed in the minor leagues and I would expect him, with just normal line drive rates, to post a BABIP in the .350's.

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    Re: Am I looking at this correctly?

    It's amazing to me that a guy 6'5" could have such blazing speed. I just can't picture that

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    Re: Am I looking at this correctly?

    I don't know about that .500 babip. What was the highest babip in the majors last year?

    Dougdirt -where do you get that 37% line rate? I just want to do some research on this stuff...i'm worried that it doesn't all add up. I understand what you are saying, i just think luck has factored into it more than folks are willing to admit.

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    Re: Am I looking at this correctly?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    I don't know about that .500 babip. What was the highest babip in the majors last year?

    Dougdirt -where do you get that 37% line rate? I just want to do some research on this stuff...i'm worried that it doesn't all add up. I understand what you are saying, i just think luck has factored into it more than folks are willing to admit.
    Firstinning.com has line drive rates. The highest BABIP in baseball is generally .390-.400 every year.

    Again, Stubbs isn't a .340 hitter.... he is going to tail off a little bit over the course of the season. However the good thing is, he is hitting the ball with lots of authority and starting to show that those hitting tools he had are turning into hitting skills.

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    Re: Am I looking at this correctly?

    If .390-.400 is the generally the highest in baseball...aren't we looking at him tailing off to about .270 BA if his current K rate stays the same (33% of his AB's). Those 2 skills generally don't go together....hitting a ball square with authority and striking out a lot.

    Educate me -what's the highest LD %??

    DougDirt: I really do appreciate the info. and i do want to make it clear that you have a better handle on the minor leagues than i ever will...i just think in this 1 case -i disagree.

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    Re: Am I looking at this correctly?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    If .390-.400 is the generally the highest in baseball...aren't we looking at him tailing off to about .270 BA if his current K rate stays the same (33% of his AB's). Those 2 skills generally don't go together....hitting a ball square with authority and striking out a lot.

    Educate me -what's the highest LD %??

    DougDirt: I really do appreciate the info. and i do want to make it clear that you have a better handle on the minor leagues than i ever will...i just think in this 1 case -i disagree.
    Well, we are probably looking at him tailing off to the .300 range in batting average so long as he continues to hit line drives at a good rate (17% or higher). His K rate isn't quite as high as what you suggest, because you aren't factoring in his walks/sacrafices where he didn't strike out when he stepped to the plate. Still, his strikeout rate is higher than you would like to see as its over 25%.

    Right now, Ryan Church has a 35% line drive rate to lead the majors, but it won't last that high for the entire season. Michael Young led baseball last year with a 27% LD rate. His BABIP was .370. Chone Figgins, a speedy guy, had a LD rate of 26% and his BABIP was .399.

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    Re: Am I looking at this correctly?

    My bet is Keppinger has the highest LD% of the current Reds

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    Re: Am I looking at this correctly?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    It's amazing to me that a guy 6'5" could have such blazing speed. I just can't picture that
    Corey Hart is even taller. And he's just as fast.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: Am I looking at this correctly?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    My bet is Keppinger has the highest LD% of the current Reds
    You lose.

    Paul Bako - 30%
    Joey Votto - 27%
    Brandon Phillips - 25%
    Jeff Keppinger way down there at 17%.

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    Re: Am I looking at this correctly?

    His K rate isn't quite as high as what you suggest, because you aren't factoring in his walks/sacrafices where he didn't strike out when he stepped to the plate. Still, his strikeout rate is higher than you would like to see as its over 25%.
    I think K/AB is a better stat if you just want to look purely at batting average. If Player A and Player B have the same K/AB HR/AB and BABIP, they're going to have the same average. Using K/PA, Player A and Player B can have the same K/PA HR/AB and BABIP, yet have very different batting averages due to walks and things that have nothing to do with batting average.

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    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Am I looking at this correctly?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You lose.

    Paul Bako - 30%
    Joey Votto - 27%
    Brandon Phillips - 25%
    Jeff Keppinger way down there at 17%.
    Small sample size. But I get your point. Good for Bako, BTW.

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    Re: Am I looking at this correctly?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Small sample size. But I get your point. Good for Bako, BTW.
    I still doubt Kepp leads the team. He hits a lot of grounders, hard grounders, but grounders none the less. Votto sprays liners everywhere. If he doesn't lead the team I will be surprised.


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