Krivsky Interview on 1530 HOMER

[RedsManRick]

True, but on the flip side, even if the Reds decided to trade all their prospects this past winter and buy any free agent on the market, they still wouldn't have gotten to 90 wins. Even if they somehow tricked Beane into giving us Haren for prospects that would not help this year (ie no Ceuto, etc), we still don't win 90 games this year. There's far too many holes on this roster.

Exactly. You have to be very careful that your "win now" strategy doesn't take a good future ceiling, lower it, and bring it closer. That's not progress. I'd much rather go 74-88 again if it means 92 wins in 2009. I certainly don't want to win 84 in 2008 and peak at 88 wins in 2009.

Unfortunately, it's easier to hit 86 wins and claim some victory than try to explain another 74 win season by promising a future that few have faith will ever come.

Hence, my claim that it is wise for rebuilding organizations to be open in communicating the plan for getting to 90 wins. I wouldn't want my team's management choosing an ultimately worse plan because they were afraid I wouldn't understand, let alone accept, the better one. The Brewers announced a 5 year plan a few years back. The Indians did the same. The Pirates have done similar things this year. Fans will accept that building a winner takes time. They won't accept a plan clouded in secrecy with an outcome that never seems to materialize. That's when fans lose faith and come to the conclusion that either you don't have a plan or are incapable of executing the one you've got.

[redsmetz]

Fan optimism is being used to say that the Reds are better off now than they when Wayne arrived. My point is that most of the people that are calling the Reds "ruinous" when Wayne arrived were singing a different tune in early 2006/late 2005.

I'm not the one trying to rewrite history.

You mean after the December 8th trades for Dave Williams and Tony Womack? As I've said before, even Williams was shocked that he was traded straight up for Sean Casey. And Krivsky dispatched Womack almost immediately. I hadn't come across the word "ruinous" at that point, but it would have been apt as to the direction of this moribund franchise.

[Spring~Fields]

Well, the reaction of other club executives at the time of the trade was pure disbelief and a general consensus that Wayne got ripped off.
My guess is that Wayne didn't shop Kearns, etc to every club.

He wanted Maj and Bray really bad, and was willing to do whatever it took to get them, in a desperate attempt to fix the bullpen.

Arroyo was headed to the bullpen, Bray and Majewski was in the bullpen, Krivsky traded common outfielders Pena, Kearns and bad fielding Lopez for bullpen pitchers, he traded Hamilton for a pitcher a risky pitcher that still could end up in the bullpen. Those outfielders are a dime a dozen in baseball.

The Reds can't or haven't even been able to get anything for Griffey or Dunn, who are far superior to those common outfielders that Bowden is stuck with now. So why would they get more for a Pena, Kearns or Hamilton? Don't give me Hamilton this and that when you know he started out well last year and fizzled, and could this year. The jury is still out on the trades, and you know it.

[paintmered]

You mean after the December 8th trades for Dave Williams and Tony Womack? As I've said before, even Williams was shocked that he was traded straight up for Sean Casey. And Krivsky dispatched Womack almost immediately. I hadn't come across the word "ruinous" at that point, but it would have been apt as to the direction of this moribund franchise.

The Sean Casey trade was nothing more than a salary dump.

[redsmetz]

The Sean Casey trade was nothing more than a salary dump.

Even for a salary dump, Dave Williams was a putrid return, Paint.

[Joseph]

Even for a salary dump, Dave Williams was a putrid return, Paint.

No, it was the definition of salary dump. You get virtually nothing in exchange for the salary relief. If the nothing is the one in a million and works, great, but no one expects it to, DanO was foolish enough to expect it and even tout it.

[REDREAD]

You mean after the December 8th trades for Dave Williams and Tony Womack? As I've said before, even Williams was shocked that he was traded straight up for Sean Casey. And Krivsky dispatched Womack almost immediately. I hadn't come across the word "ruinous" at that point, but it would have been apt as to the direction of this moribund franchise.

IIRC, most people didn't mind Dave Williams so much, because the consensus was that Casey had to go. It was a move comparable to signing Fogg this year.

Likewise, people got upset about Womack due to his low OBP, but many people assumed that Freel or someone else would beat him out of a roster spot.. In other words, Womack was comparable to castro..


I still contend that the mood in 2005/2006 was at least as upbeat as it was before Wayne was fired this year. Especially during 2006 .. I mean, come on, a lot of skeptics about Arroyo initially, but people on this board loved the fact that the 2006 team was starting to be be sort of competitive. There was very little complaining about Kearns and Lopez until they were traded.
In fact, the board was in an uproar when Aurillia got playing time over Lopez.. It was as if Bruce was here and Patterson played over him.. The rage was that intense.

I can't recall anyone saying during 2006 (pre Trade) that the team was in horrible shape. Not even the biggest pessemists on the board. Some said we weren't a true contender, but no one claimed the team was rotten to the core, as they are claiming the 2005/2006 team is now.

[REDREAD]

NoDo you want the Reds to take that route? Could the Reds sustain that? If Castellini was willing to spend $40M more, I bet we could have a really, really good shot at 90 wins in 2009. But where would we be in 2010, 2011?

Sure, if Cast was willing to spend 40 million more, and wise choices were made, that would be awesome. Why wouldn't anyone want that.
If it let us contend in 2009 and 2010, but then we had to shed salary afterwards, why would I mind?

Let me ask you this: Was 1995 a mistake? Was it wrong to pick up Wells and Burba to make the playoffs? The Reds had to pay the price. They gave up some decent young players (not a king's ransom, but some talent) and then had to dump Wells. They also got stuck with Portugal. Then they were forced to rebuild in 1997, but recovered in 1999..

Surely, you're not saying that the Reds shouldn't have gone for it in 1995 in order to pick up a few more wins in 1996 and to avoid the rebuild in 1997..

But even then, you can't be in "win now" mode for very long.

And I'm willing to accept that. It's extremely difficult as a middle market to make the playoffs in back to back years, no matter what method you do.
So why not go for it when you can, even if that means trading some prospects? The fact that it's difficult means that you should go for it when the chance is there. The Reds weren't aggressive enough in 1999 and barely missed the playoffs. I would've traded Dunn to have a respectable run in the playoffs that year, because while Dunn is a good player, the Reds have spun their wheels the entire time with him.. They would've been worse without him, but the whole object of the game is to win the World Series.

Jocketty has one success cycle in him. Now, I'm going to complain if he gives us the sort of run the Cards had. However, I'd much rather build a sustainable system of success, like that of Cleveland, Oakland, Atlanta, or Boston.

We'll never be able to do the Boston model. It's pretty much the same as the Yankee model. Grab high priced players when other teams can't afford them.
Sign high priced free agents.

While I admire Beane, I wonder if he can build a winner without the aid of steroids. I think back to his comment about how Dykstra made him realize that he "didnt' have what it takes to make it" as a player. Dykstra was a steroid user. I always wonder if he meant that. In any event, I am skeptical if Beane can build a consistent winner without steroid players. Even if he can't, he's still a brilliant GM, don't get me wrong. But he had a huge boost from players that cheated.

I'd love to have an Atlanta or Cleveland model too, but let's remember that Altanta didn't start winning until they started signing FAs.. Bream, Pendleton, Maddux, and most importantly Belliard Homegrown talent played a key part, but so did great trades and FA signings. Part of their plan was to incrementally improve each year.

I'm very curious at what Jocketty is going to do differently, which will lead to different results than what Krivksy was positioned us for. Because unless Castellini starts writing checks, I just don't see how it's going to be any different.

Well, let's give him a chance and see .. not saying that you won't give Walt a fair shot, but why assume that no one can be a better GM than Wayne? One of Wayne's biggest faults was poor allocation of money. So Walt has the potential for more cash by just not repeating Wayne's mistakes, even if payroll is not increased.

[REDREAD]

Arroyo was headed to the bullpen, Bray and Majewski was in the bullpen, Krivsky traded common outfielders Pena, Kearns and bad fielding Lopez for bullpen pitchers, he traded Hamilton for a pitcher a risky pitcher that still could end up in the bullpen. Those outfielders are a dime a dozen in baseball.

If they are a dime a dozen, then how come we have Patterson and Freel playing CF? Sure guys like 2008 Pena are a dime a dozen, but not Hamilton and 2006 Kearns. 2006 Pena actually had pretty good value. I remember many posters were bemoaning his trade. Even though Arroyo overachieved when he arrived, he was still viewed as a solid #3/#4 starter.. guys like that have value in an era where teams are forced to trot out guys like Milton and Fogg.

The Reds can't or haven't even been able to get anything for Griffey or Dunn, who are far superior to those common outfielders that Bowden is stuck with now. So why would they get more for a Pena, Kearns or Hamilton? Don't give me Hamilton this and that when you know he started out well last year and fizzled, and could this year. The jury is still out on the trades, and you know it.

Jr is old and has a no trade clause, yet they were reportedly able to get Chris Young from the White Sox for him recently (was it 2005 or 2006)

Dunn is a pending FA .. The nationals couldn't get much for Soriano in his walk year either. If Dunn was a third year player, the Reds could get a lot for him.. You mention Hamilton being a dime a dozen, but obviously he had a lot of trade value because he fetched Volquez..

[bucksfan2]

Let me ask you this: Was 1995 a mistake? Was it wrong to pick up Wells and Burba to make the playoffs? The Reds had to pay the price. They gave up some decent young players (not a king's ransom, but some talent) and then had to dump Wells. They also got stuck with Portugal. Then they were forced to rebuild in 1997, but recovered in 1999..

Are you comparing 1995 to now? Really? In 95 the Reds and Marge were among the top spenders in the league. Marge wanted to win and had a core to do so. Lets also remember that in 95 the Reds had a HOF SS playing at the peak of his career. The dynamics of baseball contracts and the amount of money handed out was completely different then than it is now.

As for RMR's assertion that the any team with a huge payroll can be competitive right away I agree. The reds in back to back years could have signed Beltran and Lee. They could have traded for Santana or Bedard this offseason. They would have had to mortage the farm and played out about $40M a season to do so but a team that would look like this.
1B Dunn
2B Phillips
SS Keppy
3B Encarnacion
LF Lee
CF Beltran
RF Jr
C Bako
Your telling me that this lineup wouldn't be one of the better ones in the NL?

Finally Castellini wants to bring winning baseball back to Cincinnati. The problem is that you can't win over night. Two teams have been able to build championship teams by spending big bucks and one of those has been spending record amounts yet hasn't seen a championship since the 90's in the Yankees. IMO it would be better off financially for the club to experince a rebuilding process for a long run of dominance compared to a short window of dominance and years of medocrity. Look at StL's attendance figures this season. They should be in a down year and the attendance should be dropping but because the fans are used to good baseball on the field they keep coming. Cincy fans are so jaded from the Allen/Linder era in which they were constantly lied to that they won't pack the stands until a winner is here.