Can Keppinger pitch?
Can Keppinger pitch?
He's slotted between two guys with very good range in Phillips and EE, that helps a lot. After AGon last year, it's a real relief to know that anything hit near SS is going to be an out.
Honestly, there hasn't been a single game this year I've I've though "man, Kepp's range is killing us out there". I can't really say that for, oh, any other facet of the Reds this year.
I can't remember who posted it, but someone before the season started posted some stats that showed if Kepp hits .300+, with his range and some other saber type stats, the run differential that Kepp would cost the team would be miniscule at best.
I think as long as he is hitting over .300, he'll be fine at SS. The fact that he's RH bodes even better.
Not exactly, it shows is is slightly below average in range on balls inside the expected SS zone. His plays out of his zone show he is even further down the totem pole in range. Keppinger, of the top 30 SS in baseball by innings played at SS, ranks 26th in out of zone plays made per 9 innings. Its really early in the season and the data is quite limited. Keppinger can hit enough so that he isn't hurting the team, but I would much rather have him hitting well at a position he can field at and be average at.
Last edited by mbgrayson; 04-29-2008 at 03:16 PM.
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"I think we’re starting to get to the point where people are starting to get tired of this stretch of ball,” Votto said. “I think something needs to start changing and start going in a different direction. I’m going to do my part to help make that change.”
Reading this, it just seems you are framing it to make the data say what you want it to say. Right now, in SS for all of MLB, Keppinger's RZR is 12th. That certainly does not imply he is below average at getting balls inside the expected SS zone. He ranks lowly in balls out of zone, but that is partly explained by the fact that it's just a number and not a rate statistic. The Reds have a mostly flyball prone staff, leading to less chances for Kepp. That doesn't explain away his out of zone numbers, but it does lead one to believe his ability to get balls out of his zone is better than the stats would suggest. Also, at this point in the season if Keppinger had made only two more out of zone plays he'd rank right in the middle of the pack in that category. Of course fielding percentage is less important than range, but you need to give it a little weight as well. In that category Keppinger is 6th in all of MLB.
It looks like this:
RZR: 12th
OOZ: 26th (3 plays worse than an average SS)
FLD%: 6th (3 errors better than an average SS)
The more data I see on Keppinger's defense, the more I am led to believe that he is just about average.
He is 9th in the NL. Thats below average. If he were playing in the AL it would be slightly different, but hes not.
Kepp has 61 balls in his zone this year, which would rank him 13th in baseball. So I don't think his OOZ plays are really affected by his pitching staff giving up lots of fly balls.He ranks lowly in balls out of zone, but that is partly explained by the fact that it's just a number and not a rate statistic. The Reds have a mostly flyball prone staff, leading to less chances for Kepp.
So in a 6 month season Keppinger is on pace to allow 18 more singles than just your average shortstop. That doesn't sound 'average' to me. Given that at best his range is average compared to other NL shortstops and his range out of the zone is below average that doesn't tell me much about him being anywhere near average defensively.Also, at this point in the season if Keppinger had made only two more out of zone plays he'd rank right in the middle of the pack in that category. Of course fielding percentage is less important than range, but you need to give it a little weight as well. In that category Keppinger is 6th in all of MLB.
It looks like this:
RZR: 12th
OOZ: 26th (3 plays worse than an average SS)
The more data I see on Keppinger's defense, the more I am led to believe that he is just about average.
And, using the same calculation, in a 6 month season he's on pace to allow 18 less errors than your average shortstop. Sounds like about average when you add it all up.
BTW, Kepp strikes me as the anti-EE. Will hardly make the spectacular play, but a grounder in his zone is an out virutally every time.
When you called his in-zone range below average before, it was when you said he was 8th out of 15. That's what made it seem like you were twisting numbers. 8th out of 15 is not below average. Also, I am not sure what the difference between AL and NL defense is, other than using NL only makes Keppinger look worse.
Screwball beat me to it. A SS missing a ball out of zone usually results in a single. An error by a shortstop usually results in a single. If he allows 18 more singles than your average SS, but also makes 18 less errors, that is what we call average. Just deleting the fielding percentage line when you quote my post doesn't make the data disappear.
Last edited by SMcGavin; 04-29-2008 at 07:04 PM.
Likely the the AL is more of a hitters league and they tend to let hitters play lesser defense than in the NL.
I doubt he makes 18 less errors than average, with only 5 shortstops making more than 20 errors all year. Its a little early still to project anything over the course of the full season (even though I did in my previous post), but I think by the time July rolls around we will see that Keppinger is indeed a below average shortstop.Screwball beat me to it. A SS missing a ball out of zone usually results in a single. An error by a shortstop usually results in a single. If he allows 18 more singles than your average SS, but also makes 18 less errors, that is what we call average. Just deleting the fielding percentage line when you quote my post doesn't make the data disappear.
I don't agree with that, I think just right now there happens to be better defensive SS in the NL right now. If you look at other positions, the mix is pretty even. Seven of the top eleven 2B are from the AL. There's nothing inherently more difficult about playing SS in the AL or NL so it makes sense to use both leagues to maximize the sample.
That's totally possible, 2008 is still a small sample. My post was intended to show that to this point, Keppinger has been almost a perfect picture of average defense. Can he keep it up? His fielding percentage is almost identical to 2007, and his range factor is only barely up. So I think Kepp is a good bet to still be pretty average once there is more data to look at. But I will agree with you that it will be interesting to look at things when we are three or four months into the season. In the meantime I think it is unfair to label Keppinger as a bad defensive SS because to this point that has not been the case.
FWIW, BP has him 1 run below average so far this season...
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