Baseball America's take on the Jocketty hiring

[edabbs44]

Notwithstanding, Harang has bounced back and could be traded, for value at that. Cordero's continued success means that he could be moved for value, although the Reds might have to eat a bit of salary. Arroyo would be the obvious stinker, but he wasn't exactly unmoveable until this year.

We'll have to agree to disagree, since I think that Arroyo became virtually untradeable once that extension was signed and Cordero has always been pretty untradeable unless Cincy agreed to eat a significant portion of his salary.

[Patrick Bateman]

We'll have to agree to disagree, since I think that Arroyo became virtually untradeable once that extension was signed and Cordero has always been pretty untradeable unless Cincy agreed to eat a significant portion of his salary.

I don't know, it just seems that that contracts of the Cincy pitchers weren't out of line with the pitchers signed in free agency (ex. Kawakimi, Fuentes, Burnett, Lowe, Moyer, Ol. Perez, Wood, etc.) Based on their production, I think there contracts would be similar to that of what would have been available in the free agent market.

[Benihana]

We'll have to agree to disagree, since I think that Arroyo became virtually untradeable once that extension was signed and Cordero has always been pretty untradeable unless Cincy agreed to eat a significant portion of his salary.

I actually don't think Cordero, with his current performance, is still untradeable. And Arroyo was very tradeable last spring (and before that.)

[redsfandan]

Cordero makes $25m over the next 2 years (including the 2012 buyout). Who would take on that contract? Most likely a big market team. LA? They could use some help for the rest of the year but NOT for 2 more years at that price. I just think it will be very hard to find a taker right now.

[edabbs44]

I actually don't think Cordero, with his current performance, is still untradeable. And Arroyo was very tradeable last spring (and before that.)

I don't see anyone needing a closer so badly that they would take on the richest contract ever for a reliever, and the last 2.5 years of it as well for a guy in his mid-30s.

And regarding Arroyo, the discussion is around whether or not Walt could have traded Arroyo this offseason, not before last spring. But since I brought that part up, the tradeableness of Arroyo took a huge hit due to the fact that there was zero need to extend him if you were looking to trade him prior to this season. That's because he was already locked up until this season.

Even if Arroyo was tradeable before last spring, he was 100x more tradeable if he didn't have the extension. And if Wayne thought that there was a possibility that he'd want to trade him before that point, then that puts the extension into even more question.

[M2]

The teams making movements in the standings the last several seasons (06-09) have been teams whose farms have put them on the map: Twins, TB, Brewers, Giants, Rockies.

Yes and no.

The Twins are a bit unique. They've been living off the farm for nine straight seasons. The Rockies are mostly homegrown too, but I'm not sold that franchise is looking at any kind of sustained success.

Most of Tampa Bay's starting team and pitching staff came from somewhere else. The Brewers used a number of acquired talents to finally break .500 and make the playoffs - in particular adding C.C. Sabathia and Mike Cameron in 2008. The Giants only have a handful of in-house kids making a significant contribution at this moment. BTW, you're 100% right that if the Reds had taken Lincecum it likely would have transformed the franchise - the Giants are winning with an offense that makes the Reds look positively brawny. You can only pull that off with a superace in tow.

The Reds recently got a lot from the farm too. It usually takes more than that. I agree the Reds are mostly sitting around waiting for lightning to strike. IMO, it's not very smart. The club could spend another decade going nowhere just as easily as it could luck into the right combination.

[TRF]

It's been dreged to death and is OT, but having Lincecum likely means an OF of Hamilton/Dickerson/Bruce and a rotation of Lincecum/Harang/Cueto/Arroyo/Owings.

That'd be decent.

[VR]

Yeah, catcher defense is reducible to what the ESPN catcher "stats" say.

I'm going to start judging pitchers by ERA alone and hitters by average too.

Let me try your argument....


"Yeah, catcher defense is reducible to what the eyes see.

I'm going to start judging pitchers by how they look."

Sounds pretty silly, eh?

[Falls City Beer]

Let me try your argument....


"Yeah, catcher defense is reducible to what the eyes see.

I'm going to start judging pitchers by how they look."

Sounds pretty silly, eh?

We've gone over this a dozen times: defensive metrics--especially for catcher--are so lacking as to be not more efficacious than judging by eyes. It's the most difficult position to judge by stats. And really, some "stats" really aren't better than watching a catcher.

You point to CS; okay, I can just as easily point to Hernandez's better ZR or to Hernandez's 0 passed balls to Ross's 5 in much less playing time.

We're not at an impasse here. We've both only looked at a sliver of a catcher's skills.

[edabbs44]

I realize that this post will probably end up being slightly controversial, but bear with me for a second:

Wayne's rep as Reds GM has been that he was good at bringing in talent to the organization and as one who picked up some gems for next to nothing.

One thing that I noted throughout his tenure was that the names of those positive contributors seemed to keep changing. David Ross used to be one of those bargain pickups until he was exposed. Keppinger was another acquisition which provided Wayne with some street cred. He then took a fall, whether it was related to his knee or not. Maloney was another when he took the Reds minor league system by storm. That really hasn't worked out with the big league club. I believe the Coutlangus pickup also would apply here.

These were somewhat minor transactions, but still fed the theory that Wayne was good at finding the diamond in the rough. The timeline was something like this: The acquisiton happens, performs well in the beginning, the player gets hyped, and then the player slowly fades away. But, in the back of some people's minds, does Wayne still get "credit" for these transactions?

Now, let's look at some of the bigger additions for which Wayne has really gained accolades for:

Arroyo - started off like gangbusters, great first year and, for the price, the trade worked out tremendously. Has steadily declined since 2006 and is now not doing very well at all with a pretty bad contract.

Burton - similar to Arroyo, had a good end of year in 2007, had a great year last year and struggled to start the year before a demotion to the minors.

Hamilton - a real once in a lifetime opportunity that Wayne cashed in, played well in PT duty his one year here and was shipped to Texas for the next guy on the list.

Volquez - probably the one I'll take a lot of heat on, but he was lights out pre-ASB last year (12-3 with a 2.29 ERA vs 5-3 with a 4.60 ERA) and is now on the DL after a start similar to last year's 2nd half (4-2 with a 4.35 ERA).

Phillips - Been solid throughout but has taken a step back from the hysteria of 2007.

So, what's the point of this? Here's my question: Does Wayne's reputation as bringing in a lot of talent to the organization hold water due to the seemingly stunted production of many of his positive additions? Arroyo has long seemed to be Wayne's #1 guy and has been the poster child for the Krivsky Era, but is that warranted knowing what we know now? Look at what Volquez has done since last year's ASB (2/3s of his tenure here) and think "What if that is his norm and not what we saw in his first 3 months?"

Just another way of looking at things. Hopefully I articulated my point well enough, but I'd be interested to hear what others think about this.

[Cedric]

Defensive metrics are just worthless. I always like to chime in and make sure that's known

[TRF]

I realize that this post will probably end up being slightly controversial, but bear with me for a second:

Wayne's rep as Reds GM has been that he was good at bringing in talent to the organization and as one who picked up some gems for next to nothing.

One thing that I noted throughout his tenure was that the names of those positive contributors seemed to keep changing. David Ross used to be one of those bargain pickups until he was exposed. Keppinger was another acquisition which provided Wayne with some street cred. He then took a fall, whether it was related to his knee or not. Maloney was another when he took the Reds minor league system by storm. That really hasn't worked out with the big league club. I believe the Coutlangus pickup also would apply here.

These were somewhat minor transactions, but still fed the theory that Wayne was good at finding the diamond in the rough. The timeline was something like this: The acquisiton happens, performs well in the beginning, the player gets hyped, and then the player slowly fades away. But, in the back of some people's minds, does Wayne still get "credit" for these transactions?

Now, let's look at some of the bigger additions for which Wayne has really gained accolades for:

Arroyo - started off like gangbusters, great first year and, for the price, the trade worked out tremendously. Has steadily declined since 2006 and is now not doing very well at all with a pretty bad contract.

Burton - similar to Arroyo, had a good end of year in 2007, had a great year last year and struggled to start the year before a demotion to the minors.

Hamilton - a real once in a lifetime opportunity that Wayne cashed in, played well in PT duty his one year here and was shipped to Texas for the next guy on the list.

Volquez - probably the one I'll take a lot of heat on, but he was lights out pre-ASB last year (12-3 with a 2.29 ERA vs 5-3 with a 4.60 ERA) and is now on the DL after a start similar to last year's 2nd half (4-2 with a 4.35 ERA).

Phillips - Been solid throughout but has taken a step back from the hysteria of 2007.

So, what's the point of this? Here's my question: Does Wayne's reputation as bringing in a lot of talent to the organization hold water due to the seemingly stunted production of many of his positive additions? Arroyo has long seemed to be Wayne's #1 guy and has been the poster child for the Krivsky Era, but is that warranted knowing what we know now? Look at what Volquez has done since last year's ASB (2/3s of his tenure here) and think "What if that is his norm and not what we saw in his first 3 months?"

Just another way of looking at things. Hopefully I articulated my point well enough, but I'd be interested to hear what others think about this.

To me its simple. What did the Reds look like the day before WK was hired, and did anyone on that team have a future as a Red long term? turns out, the answer was no at CF, 2B, SS, 1B, C and at least 4 SP's

Now look at the Reds the day before WJ took over. Still some holes, but this time the holes are RF, CF, SS C and 1 SP. CF would eventually be filled in house that first season (Dickerson) Jr. was at the end of his contract, so RF needed addressing. LF is more of a sticky issue as Dunn COULD have been retained. SS was addressed by WK, but injuries happen. Had AGon not been injured I believe he would have provided league average offense and defense for the term of his contract. Just bad luck.

Now look at the Reds today. Bruce's and EE's injury were both bad luck. SS still hasn't been addressed. CF has been a disaster. LF has been adequate, but the FO still talks the RH power bat, and really that's the only place to put one.

Yeah, I'd say the moves and non moves WK did have been greater thus far than anything Jocketty has done. No GM is immune from the bad trade/signing. Think STL might want a do over on the Haren/Mulder trade?

[Jpup]

Phillips - Been solid throughout but has taken a step back from the hysteria of 2007.

Phillips

OPS
2007 .816
2009 .814

[jojo]

Defensive metrics are just worthless. I always like to chime in and make sure that's known

A growing number of major league teams disagree with that opinion and ones who don't are doing things like trading for Yuniesky Betancourt.....

[Jpup]

A growing number of major league teams disagree with that opinion and ones who don't are doing things like trading for Yuniesky Betancourt.....

I thought the Royals were stat dudes?