Baseball America's take on the Jocketty hiring

[Falls City Beer]

Remember when folks said Krivsky was "good at contracts?" Then he promptly turned around and signed a soft-tosser entering his early 30's to a multi-year deal?

What Jocketty has done is exactly what this board has been asking for for years: don't trade away the kids; bring them along and don't sign a bunch of oldsters to big, prohibitive long-term contracts.

Yeah, it's slow going. But that's what you get when you're counting on a farm to win.

Though had Krivsky chosen the obviously correct selection Lincecum, this would be a very different team in a very different race right now.

[edabbs44]

Remember when folks said Krivsky was "good at contracts?" Then he promptly turned around and signed a soft-tosser entering his early 30's to a multi-year deal?

Agreed.

What Jocketty has done is exactly what this board has been asking for for years: don't trade away the kids; bring them along and don't sign a bunch of oldsters to big, prohibitive long-term contracts.

Agreed.

Yeah, it's slow going. But that's what you get when you're counting on a farm to win.

Agreed.

Though had Krivsky chosen the obviously correct selection Lincecum, this would be a very different team in a very different race right now.

Agreed.

[Reds/Flyers Fan]

Though had Krivsky chosen the obviously correct selection Lincecum, this would be a very different team in a very different race right now.

That's assuming the Reds could have developed him the way the Giants' system did. Or assuming the injury-magnet that is the Cincinnati Reds organization didn't bite him along the way.

[edabbs44]

2nd that opinion. Krivsky actually brought real talent into this organization.

I think that he is actually overrated in that regard. His best acquisitons were 2 of an infinite number of shots in the dark that he took while here, and then turned one of them into a very good starter. We've seen nothing from his 2 drafts in Cincy to this point and we have seen a few players that his regime passed on already get to the show. One of his positive additions turned into a big negative after the contract he gave him. He had a number of other low risk acquisitions that seemed to build his reputation in the short term, but end up being exposed in the end.

We also saw a weird obsession with the bullpen where he spent an inordinate amt of time and budget trying to fix it. He ended up improving it, but definitely at a cost.

Wayne did a decent to good job as a talent evaluator. But as a GM, he flunked.

[Highlifeman21]

That's assuming the Reds could have developed him the way the Giants' system did. Or assuming the injury-magnet that is the Cincinnati Reds organization didn't bite him along the way.

Jerry Narron would have killed him.

And if Jerry didn't, The Dusty sure would have...

[Falls City Beer]

The Dusty sure would have...

So far Dusty has done nothing to Cueto or Volquez that would indicate such.

[OnBaseMachine]

I think that he is actually overrated in that regard. His best acquisitons were 2 of an infinite number of shots in the dark that he took while here, and then turned one of them into a very good starter. We've seen nothing from his 2 drafts in Cincy to this point and we have seen a few players that his regime passed on already get to the show. One of his positive additions turned into a big negative after the contract he gave him. He had a number of other low risk acquisitions that seemed to build his reputation in the short term, but end up being exposed in the end.

We also saw a weird obsession with the bullpen where he spent an inordinate amt of time and budget trying ti fix it. He ended up improving it, but definitely at a cost.

Wayne did a decent to good job as a talent evaluator. But as a GM, he flunked.

2006 draft:

Drew Stubbs - AAA...projects as Gold Glove CFer. Obviously passing on Lincecum was a huge mistake. I was very much in favor of Lincecum.

Valaika is already in AAA.

Justin Turner was used in a trade to acquire Ramon Hernandez.

Josh Roenicke is pitching well in the majors so far.

Chris Heisey is OPSing over 1.000 in AAA right now and is on the verge of reaching the majors.

Despite passing on Lincecum, the 2006 draft is looking good, though it would have been a tremendous draft if they selected Lincecum.

2007 draft:

I like the early returns on the 2007 draft despite Mesoraco not doing anything. Frazier, Cozart, and Soto all look like good prospects. Kyle Lotzkar has a big arm too, though he's struggled with injury problems this season.

It's way too early to judge his drafts.

[IslandRed]

Cast wants to win. However, he is just starting to figure out how, with Jocketty's guidance.

Took the words out of my mouth. Wanting to win and knowing how are two completely different things.

Of course, to a lot of casual fans, "wanting to win" is a simple question of whether the team is spending more money than it has. :

[edabbs44]

Jerry Narron would have killed him.

And if Jerry didn't, The Dusty sure would have...

Oh yeah, and Dusty was Wayne's guy. He even admitted it as he was walking out the door.

[TheNext44]

2nd that opinion. Krivsky actually brought real talent into this organization.

I agree that he brought good talent to the organization, and he is part of the reason why the organization is where it is today, head and shoulders above where it was when Linder owned it.

I liked Wayne, I just like Walt a little better.

Wayne acquired some solid talent in Phillips, Hamilton, Arroyo, Cordero, all for next to nothing. But he never put together a team. He never had a solid plan for the future. Maybe he would have if given a chance, we'll never know.

But Walt has a clear plan. Pitching, defense and depth in the minors. He is sticking to that plan, even when given an opportunity to go for it this year. Might be hard to take this year, but like eating right, and working out, we'll be glad he did in the future.

[mth123]

I agree with Edabbs comments about Krivsky. I thought he was a good scout but lacking as a GM. My expectations for Walt soared when he started taking out the garbage last season. His DFA of David Ross is my favorite move so far. The problem is he brought in worse garbage this year than anything he inherited, and it wasn't "end of the bench role player garbage" along the lines of Juan Castro, but "primary acquisition, 2 year deal, lead-off , play CF and get the most plate appearances on the roster" garbage.

That one move totally soured me on the current regime. When 90% of this board knew it was a disaster from day one, it makes me question everything. It wasn't like it was a close call or defensible in any way (though some well meaning posters tried). It makes you wonder if he's even trying. Is he going through the motions and letting Dusty call the shots? How can the guy with the annual contender in St. Louis possibly think Willy Taveras was a good idea? I can't get past it.

[jojo]

Remember when folks said Krivsky was "good at contracts?" Then he promptly turned around and signed a soft-tosser entering his early 30's to a multi-year deal?

What Jocketty has done is exactly what this board has been asking for for years: don't trade away the kids; bring them along and don't sign a bunch of oldsters to big, prohibitive long-term contracts.
Yeah, it's slow going. But that's what you get when you're counting on a farm to win.

Though had Krivsky chosen the obviously correct selection Lincecum, this would be a very different team in a very different race right now.

This kind of smacks of results-based analysis IMHO.

First, Harang's contract was a good one and Arroyo's was riskier but not a de facto poor one (the two were almost done simultaneously so it's appropriate to discuss them as a pair).

Concerning Lincecum, there were legit reasons to pass him over and his selection was by no means an obvious choice that was flubbed at the time teams were on the clock.

Really all Jocketty has done so far is pass on big name free agents, not trade anyone who could be considered significant, signed turds like Lincoln and Taveras to multi-year deals, outbid the league for Hairston and did some shopping on the Island of Misfit Toys (Nixs and Gomes). This is a dramatic departure from Krivsky?

Jocketty is not a moron, I repeat, he's not. But I'm not getting this narrative that he's the savior that is righting a ship Krivsky was driving into the shoreline.

I also don't get why the farm has suddenly blossomed since Jocketty took over (apparently so since the argument has become that the proof in Jocketty's pudding is that he didn't " trade away the kids (presumably the ones that Krivsky wasn't nurturing?); bring them along and don't sign a bunch of oldsters to big, prohibitive long-term contracts" :

Every time Cueto takes the mound, I think a little less of the "great" development team assembled under Krivsky.

Honestly, how many times are we going to hear how good a shape this team's farm system is? It's this overarching narrative that connects every era of the last 10 years: the MLB product is dogcrap, but boy their farm is making great strides.

[Big Klu]

What Jocketty has done is exactly what this board has been asking for for years: don't trade away the kids; bring them along and don't sign a bunch of oldsters to big, prohibitive long-term contracts.

Yeah, it's slow going. But that's what you get when you're counting on a farm to win.

I agree. Walt Jocketty is doing what a real GM does. It's been so long since the Reds have had one that we fans have forgotten what it's like.

So far Dusty has done nothing to Cueto or Volquez that would indicate such.

Seriously, Dusty gets a bad rap for "ruining" pitchers because of Prior and Wood. IMO, he has done very well in his handling of the Reds' staff, particularly the young guns (Volquez, Cueto, Bailey).

He also gets a bad rap for his so-called "vet-love", but Votto was given an opportunity to win his position early in the 2008 season, Bruce has been a starter since the moment he was first called up, and Dickerson has been getting more opportunities lately (and it looks like his role might expand). Dusty is also the only Reds manager who has ever treated Encarnacion the way that the "silent majority" at RedsZone feels like he ought to be treated.

How can the guy with the annual contender in St. Louis possibly think Willy Taveras was a good idea? I can't get past it.

He's the same guy who went to the World Series with Tony Womack as his leadoff hitter. If he did it once, he can do it again.

[Falls City Beer]

This kind of smacks of results-based analysis IMHO.

First, Harang's contract was a good one and Arroyo's was riskier but not a de facto poor one (the two were almost done simultaneously so it's appropriate to discuss them as a pair).

Concerning Lincecum, there were legit reasons to pass him over and his selection was by no means an obvious choice that was flubbed at the time teams were on the clock.

Really all Jocketty has done so far is pass on big name free agents, not trade anyone who could be considered significant, signed turds like Lincoln and Taveras to multi-year deals, outbid the league for Hairston and did some shopping on the Island of Misfit Toys (Nixs and Gomes). This is a dramatic departure from Krivsky?

Jocketty is not a moron, I repeat, he's not. But I'm not getting this narrative that he's the savior that is righting a ship Krivsky was driving into the shoreline.

I also don't get why the farm has suddenly blossomed since Jocketty took over (apparently so since the argument has become that the proof in Jocketty's pudding is that he didn't " trade away the kids (presumably the ones that Krivsky wasn't nurturing?); bring them along and don't sign a bunch of oldsters to big, prohibitive long-term contracts" :

I've never been the biggest fan of sitting and waiting on the farm, but Krivsky/O'Brien/Jocketty have all three overseen drafts that have turned up some interesting offensive players. But I've never claimed that the farm has "all of a sudden blossomed" under Jocketty. (And I've never claimed that Jocketty is a savior--it's entirely possible he can't build a winner with a shrinking/frozen budget)

My point is that folks have been complaining for years that GMs have been getting middling talent like Aurilia for instance and blocking "unreal talent" on the farm. Well, it's not really turned out that way has it? Can anyone--before last season's seeming turnaround of farm hands making to the majors--claim that the farm has been the answer to what's ailed the Reds this decade? Now that there's a GM who hasn't been trading away prospects, people are complaining. It's backwards. If Krivsky et al were so skilled at building a farm (and maybe they were), then why would one want to gut it for a Bedard or a Dye? The same folks declaiming Krivsky for his farm renaissance wanted Jocketty to do what, exactly? It seems, if you followed what folks were saying about the talent on the farm, that most folks didn't want to trade the farm before this season. But now that "they're SOOOO close," people wanted to go for it. It was pretty clearly *not* the season to go for it as it turns out. Maybe a little conservatism vis. trades and the roster was what was called for. And maybe Walt saw that. Maybe he didn't. Nevertheless, it turns out that it was the right move. It's certainly not a reason to fire him.

As a side bar, paying an average of 10 million a season for at best a league-average pitcher in Arroyo was a bad move. Maybe not a bad move for the Yankees, but certainly a bad one for the Reds. Several folks questioned the decision at the time. Harang's deal was a pretty good one, however.

[OnBaseMachine]

I agree. Walt Jocketty is doing what a real GM does. It's been so long since the Reds have had one that we fans have forgotten what it's like.

A real GM? He signed Willy Taveras and Mike Lincoln to multi year contracts. I was much more impressed with Krivsky than I have been with Jocketty. Krivsky brought a lot of talent into the organization - Hamilton, Volquez, Phillips, Cordero, Burton (horrible this season, yeah, but he was good in 2007-2008), Arroyo. What has Jocketty done so far?

BTW, great post jojo.