Baseball America's take on the Jocketty hiring

[BCubb2003]

Danny Dorn has a chance to be ready next year when he comes off the DL

He's got a good baseball background. His father, Roger, was good for awhile with Cleveland.

[OnBaseMachine]

He's got a good baseball background. His father, Roger, was good for awhile with Cleveland.

[Scrap Irony]

Nah, Dorn was just playoff lucky. he had one good at-bat, really, and his glove was questionable at best.

Ditto Brandon Waring, as to possible OF's in two or three years.

The depth of possible OF's is a strength. The depth of probable All-Stars is mighty thin. (Of course, it's that way with every farm system except the Rays, who seemingly have a ready-made All-Star at each position.)

[flyer85]

Waring has a 6/32 k/bb ratio in 86 ABs in Low A ball. He's hit a some HRs but that ratio his Ks/AB are a huge red flag.

[REDREAD]

Every time Cueto takes the mound, I think a little less of the "great" development team assembled under Krivsky.

Honestly, how many times are we going to hear how good a shape this team's farm system is? It's this overarching narrative that connects every era of the last 10 years: the MLB product is dogcrap, but boy their farm is making great strides.

It's standard practice by every struggling franchise. There's always the calvary down in the minors that will save the day. Got to give the fans hope.

The reality is that the best farm system in baseball can not alone produce enough talent to contend year in and year out. Trades need to be made. Money needs to be well spent. Even the Braves big run featured FA acquisions in their bullpen, and FAs like Maddux, Bream, Pendleton, etc.. as
well as nice trades (Neagle from Pitts, Smoltz, etc) . Sure the farm helped a lot, but it's only part of the puzzle.

[REDREAD]

The thing that bothered me at the time and still does is this: could we have gotten Volquez for Dunn?

I don't know. The story is that the Rangers approached Wayne for Hamilton. He was their big target. Wayne insisted on Volquez in return.

Would Dunn want to go to Texas and give them a sweet extension? If so, that makes Dunn a lot more attractive than a rent a player.. however, I feel Hamilton was still much more attractive to the Rangers than Dunn was.

[M2]

It should be no great secret that the Reds aren't going to be saved by the farm alone. Anyone who thinks otherwise is practicing the art of self deception.

The Reds' best all-around position player (Phillips) came via trade. The Reds' ace pitcher (Harang) came via trade. The Reds' best young pitcher, at the moment, (Volquez) came via trade. Large amounts of external talent needs to be imported.

Yet Votto looks like a player, Encarnacion (originally signed by Texas, but raised by the Reds) looks to be taking a step forward and Bruce is just about the surest thing you'll ever see in AAA. The Reds have 50% of a good starting eight for 2009 and beyond, workable starting pitching (I don't care about some growing pains for the young guys or a slow start by some of the vets, this starting pitching - provided it stays healthy - is going to put to shame any Reds rotation of the 21st century by the time the season ends), a bona fide closer, and an improved (though still flawed) setup staff.

The farm won't save the Reds, but, for the first time in a long time, it's providing some legitimate help. Personally, I find demands of immediate gratification as useless as empty promises that the future is assured. What I see is a franchise that's got some things to work with. Whether Jocketty and Baker can piece it together remains to be seen, but this club some talent on hand.

[OnBaseMachine]

It should be no great secret that the Reds aren't going to be saved by the farm alone. Anyone who thinks otherwise is practicing the art of self deception.

The Reds' best all-around position player (Phillips) came via trade. The Reds' ace pitcher (Harang) came via trade. The Reds' best young pitcher, at the moment, (Volquez) came via trade. Large amounts of external talent needs to be imported.

Yet Votto looks like a player, Encarnacion (originally signed by Texas, but raised by the Reds) looks to be taking a step forward and Bruce is just about the surest thing you'll ever see in AAA. The Reds have 50% of a good starting eight for 2009 and beyond, workable starting pitching (I don't care about some growing pains for the young guys or a slow start by some of the vets, this starting pitching - provided it stays healthy - is going to put to shame any Reds rotation of the 21st century by the time the season ends), a bona fide closer, and an improved (though still flawed) setup staff.

The farm won't save the Reds, but, for the first time in a long time, it's providing some legitimate help. Personally, I find demands of immediate gratification as useless as empty promises that the future is assured. What I see is a franchise that's got some things to work with. Whether Jocketty and Baker can piece it together remains to be seen, but this club some talent on hand.

You are one smart dude. Great, great post.

[redsmetz]

Even the BRM had guys we traded for - a third of the starting line-up - Morgan, Geronimo and Foster. On the staff: Jack Billingham, Fred Norman, Pat Darcy, Clay Kirby, Pedro Bourbon and Clay Carroll. It's always a mixture.

Same with the 1990 club: Imports Mariano Duncan, Billy Hatcher, Todd Benzinger and Hal Morris. Pitchers Jose Rijo, Danny Jackson, Rich Mahler and two thirds of the Nasty Boys Norm Charlton and Randy Myers.

[Reds1]

Didn't like what they said about Reds being only a ohio kentucky team! Reds are fairly popular in Indiana. I know many Hoosiers for the Reds. It's probably the 3rd team behind Cardinals and cubs, but it is the 3rd team.

[fearofpopvol1]

Didn't like what they said about Reds being only a ohio kentucky team! Reds are fairly popular in Indiana. I know many Hoosiers for the Reds. It's probably the 3rd team behind Cardinals and cubs, but it is the 3rd team.

I actually think Reds fans trump Cardinals fans in Indiana, but definitely play in the shadow of Cubs fans.

[Unassisted]

I actually think Reds fans trump Cardinals fans in Indiana, but definitely play in the shadow of Cubs fans.

A look at this blackout map will tell you which parts of Indiana the clubs consider to be their territory.

[Falls City Beer]

The farm won't save the Reds, but, for the first time in a long time, it's providing some legitimate help. Personally, I find demands of immediate gratification as useless as empty promises that the future is assured. What I see is a franchise that's got some things to work with. Whether Jocketty and Baker can piece it together remains to be seen, but this club some talent on hand.

Cold comfort. Honestly, this is the same agnosticism we've labored under for all but the two DanO years (when it was clear the organization was headed downward) out of the last decade.

I gotta tell ya, I'm not at all convinced that *anything's* been fundamentally "turned around."

Right now, we start all over again with Jocketty and a huge host of question marks. I think Jocketty's the right guy to take a team's minor league "buzz" and trade it into legitimate MLB talent, so I'm happy about that, but this major league product is putrid, so there's no telling how long it'll take to line up all the pieces. For all we know, contention may take so long now, the Harang window might close before they get there.

And honestly, I find the either/or of "instant gratification" versus "future assurances" to be reductive.

(And this pitching staff is a disaster that's not only already happening, but shaping up to be downright monstrous. I totally disagree with your assessment of this team's pitching).

[REDREAD]

The farm won't save the Reds, but, for the first time in a long time, it's providing some legitimate help. Personally, I find demands of immediate gratification as useless as empty promises that the future is assured. What I see is a franchise that's got some things to work with. Whether Jocketty and Baker can piece it together remains to be seen, but this club some talent on hand.

But let's look back at the 2005 club in hindsight, going under the optimistic assumptions many had:

Pitching:

Clausen, coming off 166 IP, and a 4.21 ERA seemed to be a workable rotation guy. The "ace" predictions had soured, but he seemed useful.

Belisle: Many people high on this guy as well. Seemed like another promising young guy

Harang: this guy was actually underrated at the time by most. Hadn't broken through yet.

Weathers: old but solid, much like some of our current bullpen guys.

Other guys generally viewed favorably: Coffey, Wanger, Lizard, Valentine, Shackleford.

On the farm: Homer, Ceuto (although he was under the radar and shouldn't count in the optimism score),

So, one would say that there's some holes in that staff obviously, but not
that bad of a base to start with.

Lineup:
I don't know how many people were predicting LaRue's self destruction in the 2006 season.I can't recall any. Prior to Ross being picked up, most people were generally optimistic about LaRue for the short term at least.

Casey was falling out of favor, but Votto was already on the farm, and causing excitement.

People were high on EdE, Freel, Lopez,

In the OF: this was considered a strength, with Dunn, Jr, Kearns, and Pena.
Folks were really high on Deno as well. There was a lot of hope some of the excessive OF help could be moved for pitching..

So, as far as lineup goes, it was generally viewed that we were pretty solid everywhere except 1b, but Votto was coming.. Just as people are excited this year about Bruce coming.

So, my point in listing all this is that there was a pretty high level of optimism when Wayne arrived, as far as most of the pieces being in place, and a good base to work from.

Not directed at you M2, but it seems some here now are changing their view that the whole franchise was a mess when Wayne arrived. That's not really true. I'd say people were just as optimistic now as they were back then.

I'm not going to go back and see what prospects were really hot back then. But I remember people having hope for guys like Olmedo, Bergolllia, etc.

So I guess the point is that in 2005 (when Wayne arrived), the Reds were generally viewed as being in pretty good shape too, and that the right GM could find another pitcher or two and get this team back to contending.
Optimism certainly went through the roof in the early part of the 2006 season, when the roster was largely DanO's guys plus Hat, Arroyo + Phillips.

[Aronchis]

Cold comfort. Honestly, this is the same agnosticism we've labored under for all but the two DanO years (when it was clear the organization was headed downward) out of the last decade.

I gotta tell ya, I'm not at all convinced that *anything's* been fundamentally "turned around."

Right now, we start all over again with Jocketty and a huge host of question marks. I think Jocketty's the right guy to take a team's minor league "buzz" and trade it into legitimate MLB talent, so I'm happy about that, but this major league product is putrid, so there's no telling how long it'll take to line up all the pieces. For all we know, contention may take so long now, the Harang window might close before they get there.

And honestly, I find the either/or of "instant gratification" versus "future assurances" to be reductive.

(And this pitching staff is a disaster that's not only already happening, but shaping up to be downright monstrous. I totally disagree with your assessment of this team's pitching).

and I disagree with yours. Bad pitching still? Sure? But monstrous? Nada. Be very very wary of the early season. It lies. Alot. Sorta like spring training.

The Reds have a prime Harang, blooming Volquez and another big rightie developing down in the minors. That core alone speaks to good things going foward. The bullpen has some talent finally(along with some holes yet assured) and I will say it has probably overachieved abit. But as the weather warms up some of those struggling bullpen arms in AAA/AA will get hot and bloom. It is simple math. Jocketty simply needs to take the pieces that will work and move the talent he can for filling the remaining holes. It isn't that difficult. You try to make it sound horrible. It isn't.