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View Poll Results: What do you think of Mr. Sickel's Crystal Ball?

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  • Too Optimistic - peak won't be that good

    4 7.69%
  • Too Optimistic - he won't last that long

    9 17.31%
  • Just Right

    12 23.08%
  • Too Pessimistic - he will last longer

    1 1.92%
  • Too Pessimistic - peak will be better

    26 50.00%
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Thread: Jay Bruce Crystal Ball

  1. #1
    Boom Goes the Dynamite Screwball's Avatar
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    Jay Bruce Crystal Ball

    John Sickels posted his personal "crystal ball" for Jay Bruce over on his site (www.minorleagueball.com/). Here's what he predicts:



    I'd like to see what RedsZone thinks about John's prognosis. Too optimistic, Just Right, or Too Pessimistic?
    Last edited by Screwball; 05-01-2008 at 02:10 AM.

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  3. #2
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce Crystal Ball

    I think he'll be a perennial .300-.320 hitter with 35-40 homeruns maybe more in some seasons. John does a solid job with the crystal balls - those projections are always fun to read.

  4. #3
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce Crystal Ball

    I don't like him listing him as playing with the Astros. Numbers though, how could any of us be upset if Jay Bruce puts up HoF type numbers.

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  5. #4
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce Crystal Ball

    I think that he is shorting Bruce in the early years. I expect him to do Votto numbers if not better.

  6. #5
    Boom Goes the Dynamite Screwball's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce Crystal Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by SpringfieldFan View Post
    I think that he is shorting Bruce in the early years. I expect him to do Votto numbers if not better.
    Yeah, I was pretty surprised to see Sickels have Jay Bruce with a .223 avg. this year. IMO, he won't set the league on fire just yet, but he'll be a little more productive than stated.

    However, it's tough to complain about the predicted peak numbers. 80-95 XBH a year, with almost half of 'em being home runs? 504 career homers? I'll take it.

  7. #6
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    Re: Jay Bruce Crystal Ball

    2014 -2016 look like MVP years if I'm not mistaken

    I'll take a three-time MVP in a Reds uni
    Go BLUE!!!

  8. #7
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    Re: Jay Bruce Crystal Ball

    That's pretty much what I envision for his future (assuming he stays physically & mentally healthy).

    The only nit I would pick is that his walk rate looks too low, especially later in his career after he has established himself as a superduperstar. Pitchers will start nibbling and intentionally walking him if he establishes himself as a 300 hitting 40 HR guy. Plus, even before he establishes himself, I highly doubt he will be a hacking away to the tune of a paltry 30+ walks per year. Sickels has him flirting with a sub-300 OBP right up until he becomes an MVP candidate in 2013. That's is not realistic IMO.

    I expect him to start out as a 50 walks per year kind of hitter and eventually build towards 80 walks per year as he hits his peak.
    Last edited by Steve4192; 05-01-2008 at 10:47 AM.

  9. #8
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce Crystal Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    That's pretty much what I envision for his future (assuming he stays physically & mentally healthy).

    The only nit I would pick is that walk rate looks too low, especially later in his career after he has established himself as a superduperstar. Pitchers will start nibbling and intentionally walking him if he establishes himself as a 300 hitting 40 HR guy. While the BB rates at the start of his career might be realistic, I expect him to eventually turn into a 75-85 walks per year kind of hitter.
    Very good point. That was one of the first things that come to my mind when I read this thread.

  10. #9
    Member medford's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce Crystal Ball

    While those numbers look very nice, apparently Sickels doesn't know that Bruce is the Boss; I think his peak will be better.

  11. #10
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce Crystal Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve4192 View Post
    That's pretty much what I envision for his future (assuming he stays physically & mentally healthy).

    The only nit I would pick is that his walk rate looks too low, especially later in his career after he has established himself as a superduperstar. Pitchers will start nibbling and intentionally walking him if he establishes himself as a 300 hitting 40 HR guy. Plus, even before he establishes himself, I highly doubt he will be a hacking away to the tune of a paltry 30+ walks per year. Sickels has him flirting with a sub-300 OBP right up until he becomes an MVP candidate in 2013. That's is not realistic IMO.

    I expect him to start out as a 50 walks per year kind of hitter and eventually build towards 80 walks per year as he hits his peak.
    I'm with you here.

    People may get giddy with those counting stats listed, but the approx. OBP with those stats is .340 with the approx. SLG being around .520, good for an .860 OPS.

    What's suspect to me is Sickels has Bruce with 1,112 extra base hits and only 798 walks (as an aside, Griffey has exactly 1,112 extra base hits right now to go with 1,175 walks). To me, if Bruce is going to put up that high of an extra base hit total, then his walk total will be higher. If he's only walking once every 13 PAs then I highly doubt he'll stroke 1,100 extra base hits. I'm not sure if that player has ever existed, and if he does exist then there isn't many of them around.
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  12. #11
    Boom Goes the Dynamite Screwball's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce Crystal Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    2014 -2016 look like MVP years if I'm not mistaken

    I'll take a three-time MVP in a Reds uni
    His line for those years (OBP*/SLG/OPS):

    2014: .362*/.621/.983
    2015: .368*/.573/.941
    2016: .382*/.568/.950

    *: I figured up his OBP by adding hits and walks and then dividing by PA. I didn't have information concerning sac flies and reached on errors, etc., so I just ignored it.

  13. #12
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce Crystal Ball

    A few guys I think of when I look at this thread are Joe Carter, Andres Galarraga, and Jim Rice. I don't think any of them struck out as much as Bruce is projected to, but they're a few players I recall not walking very much and still managing to put up some good power numbers year in and year out.

  14. #13
    Senor Votto Degenerate39's Avatar
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    Re: Jay Bruce Crystal Ball

    Blasphemey! He'll be a career Red and hit 50 homers every year.
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  15. #14
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    Re: Jay Bruce Crystal Ball

    I had to go with too optimistic. The number I really didn't like was the 504 HR. Projecting a player who has not played in the majors to hit 500+ HR is a huge reach.

  16. #15
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    Re: Jay Bruce Crystal Ball

    Quote Originally Posted by UC_Ken View Post
    I had to go with too optimistic. The number I really didn't like was the 504 HR. Projecting a player who has not played in the majors to hit 500+ HR is a huge reach.
    Its a crystal ball of a player who hasn't played in the majors.


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