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Thread: Reds Top 25 Prospects- May Edition

  1. #1
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    Reds Top 25 Prospects- May Edition

    Time to update the ol' prospect chart. Here's how I stack them up as of May 1:

    GRADE A

    1. Jay Bruce OF 21 AAA
    2. Homer Bailey RHP 22 AAA
    3. Daryl Thompson RHP 22 AA

    GRADE B

    4. Todd Frazier 3B 22 A
    5. Drew Stubbs CF 23 A+
    6. Josh Roenicke RHP 25 AA
    7. Travis Wood LHP 21 A+
    8. Matt Maloney LHP 24 AAA
    9. Kyle Lotzkar RHP 18 R
    10. Chris Valaika 22 2B/SS A+
    11. Juan Francisco 1B/OF 21 A+
    12. Brandon Waring 3B 22 A

    GRADE C

    13. Adam Rosales INF 25 AAA
    14. Daniel Dorn OF 23 AA
    15. Devin Mesoraco C 20 R
    16. Justin Turner 23 2B A+
    17. Daniel Herrera LHP 23 AAA
    18. Tyler Pelland LHP 23 AAA

    KEEP AN EYE ON

    19. Neftali Soto 2B/3B 18 R
    20. Jose Castro SS 21 AA
    21. Sean Watson RHP 23 A+
    22. Carlos Fisher RHP 25 AA
    23. Pedro Viola LHP 24 AA
    24. Jordan Smith RHP 22 A+
    25. Shaun Cumberland 23 OF AA

    ON THE RADAR

    BJ Szymanski 25 OF AA
    Jeff Jeffords 23 RHP A
    Keltavious Jones 22 OF A
    Justin Reed 20 OF A
    Juan Duran 16 OF R

    DROPPED OFF THE RADAR

    Sam LeCure 23 RHP AA

    Looking at this list, I'd like to see the following guys promoted immediately:

    1. Todd Frazier
    2. Drew Stubbs
    3. Josh Roenicke
    4. Chris Valaika
    5. Justin Turner

    The following guys should be considered for promotion this time next month (around the draft) if they continue to progress:

    1. Jay Bruce
    2. Homer Bailey
    3. Daryl Thompson
    4. Travis Wood
    5. Brandon Waring

    Thoughts?
    Last edited by Benihana; 05-01-2008 at 02:35 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- May Edition

    I would consider putting Todd Frazier in the Grade A group. He's hitting .304/.396/.630 in Dayton after hitting .319/.405/.538 last season. I think he's the Reds second best hitting prospect right now behind Jay Bruce and just ahead of Drew Stubbs. As for Stubbs, if he's still hitting like this in a month then I move him into the Grade A group too.

    I think Kyle Lotzkar and Neftali Soto will make a huge leap on this list by the end of the season.

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- May Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I would consider putting Todd Frazier in the Grade A group. He's hitting .304/.396/.630 in Dayton after hitting .319/.405/.538 last season. I think he's the Reds second best hitting prospect right now behind Jay Bruce and just ahead of Drew Stubbs. As for Stubbs, if he's still hitting like this in a month then I move him into the Grade A group too.

    I think Kyle Lotzkar and Neftali Soto will make a huge leap on this list by the end of the season.

    It's funny you say that, because that was the biggest debate I had with this list- whether to include Frazier in the "A" group or "B" group. I left him in the B for now because I'd like to see him perform well at a higher level, which of course he needs to be promoted to first. Generally, I think of Grade A prospects as Top 50 guys in all of baseball, and I think with very few exceptions (top 5 draft picks, etc.) you have to be dominating a higher level than A ball to be in that category. Regardless, he's definitely on the cusp of that level.

    I also like Lotzkar and Soto, and would like to see them both in the 5-10 range by the end of the year.
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- May Edition

    I think Josh Roenicke is too high on the list. He's been good, but he walks way too many batters. I wouldn't put him in the "C" list, but I'd definitely move him down a lot further on the "B" list.

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- May Edition

    Sean Watson is a disappointment. He's been bad since he got promoted to Sarasota last year.

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    One and a half men Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- May Edition

    I would have guys like Mesoraco and Duran up ahead o utility types like Rosales.... I know there are little numbers to go with, but IMO, talent tops utility ceilings. We've had this similar debate before with Stubbs, and eventually he started putting up decent numbers to leapfrog Valaika and Turner.

    It's about trying to predict the future, and even though we have nothing to work with regarding Duran, I can say that I would rather have him in the system than a guy like Rosales. Just so much projectibility. I'm confident that a few years down the line, the numbers put up due to his immense skill level should easily be enough to merit more value than the utility types.

    My feeling is that the best case result of Rosales and co. still don't leave me enough to get me excited about them as prospects, just as role players, and because of that I'll take the riskier, but much greater upside picks that could ultimately result in above average regulars.... at skill positions to boot.

    Overall though a good list... I agree with most of the underlying rankings and groups.

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- May Edition

    Good post AK.

    I agree with ya on Juan Duran. I think at this time next season he'll be the best prospect in the Reds system just ahead of guys like Lotzkar, Soto, Frazier, Stubbs, Mesoraco and this years first round pick.

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- May Edition

    I'm not trying to nitpick, but is Pelland really back in AA?

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- May Edition

    Pelland is in Louisville.

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- May Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Good post AK.

    I agree with ya on Juan Duran. I think at this time next season he'll be the best prospect in the Reds system just ahead of guys like Lotzkar, Soto, Frazier, Stubbs, Mesoraco and this years first round pick.
    I doubt Duran will reach that level in rookie ball at age 17. That said, I do agree that Duran and even Mesoraco have considerable more upside than most of the players rated in the "C" category and below. However, as a matter of personal principle, I'm waiting until they produce something before I start bumping them up the list. If I had to rank them in terms of who I'd want in the organization (due to upside), the list would be considerably different. It would look more like this:

    1. Bruce
    2. Bailey
    3. Thompson
    4. Frazier
    5. Duran
    6. Stubbs
    7. Lotzkar
    8. Wood
    9. Mesoraco
    10. Soto

    But of course like I said, I'd like to see some kind of numbers -at some professional level- before I start moving guys way up the list. Duran's major league ETA is four years away at the absolute minimum, and therefore I'm just keeping him around as someone to "keep an eye on."

    There's always going to be a debate on the upside/readiness ratio for every prospect list. Rosales, Dorn, Turner, and Herrera have considerably less upside than the other guys in the Top 20, and that is why I rated them as "C" prospects right now, despite their high performance at advanced levels. Mesoraco has shown nothing at the professional level, so he remains in the lower category but maybe more appropriately should be someone to "keep an eye on" along with guys like Soto. As I said before, I hope that Soto, Lotzkar, Mesoraco, and eventually Duran will all be "Grade A" or at least "Grade B" prospects before long. But that day has not come...yet.
    Last edited by Benihana; 05-01-2008 at 02:51 PM.
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- May Edition

    After a little bit of thought, I thought I'd define the categories again for everyone:

    Grade A: Generally a top 50 prospect in all of baseball, these guys have the upside to be All-Stars at the major league level.

    Grade B: These guys have trade value right now, and (generally) project to be major league regulars.

    Grade C: At best a throw-in for a trade, these guys should make the majors at some point but may never be good enough to be regulars.

    Keep an Eye On/On the Radar: High upside guys that could easily rocket up the charts with a decent string of production. More often than not, they could fall into the boom or bust category.

    (I realize that by these definitions, Mesoraco probably belongs in the last category. However I included him in Group C for now because of his high draft position- and subsequent higher ranking.)
    Last edited by Benihana; 05-01-2008 at 02:48 PM.
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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- May Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I doubt Duran will reach that level in rookie ball at age 17. That said, I do agree that Duran and even Mesoraco have considerable more upside on most of the players rated in the "C" category and below. However, as a matter of personal principle, I'm waiting until they produce something before I start bumping up the list. If I had to rank them in terms of who I'd want in the organization (due to upside), the list would be considerably different. It would look more like this:

    1. Bruce
    2. Bailey
    3. Thompson
    4. Frazier
    5. Duran
    6. Stubbs
    7. Lotzkar
    8. Wood
    9. Mesoraco
    10. Soto

    But of course like I said, I'd like to see some kind of numbers -at some professional level- before I start moving guys way up the list. Duran's major league ETA is four years away at the absolute minimum, and therefore I'm just keeping him around as "someone to keep an eye on."

    There's always going to be a debate on the upside/readiness ratio for every prospect list. Rosales, Dorn, Turner, and Herrera have considerably less upside than the other guys in the Top 20, and that is why I rated them as "C" prospects right now, despite their high performance at advanced levels. Mesoraco has shown nothing at the professional level, so he remains in the lower category but maybe more appropriately should be "someone to keep an eye on" along with the others like Soto and Castro. As I said before, I hope that Soto, Lotzkar, Mesoraco, and eventually Duran will all be "Grade A" or at least "Grade B" prospects before long. But that day has not come...yet.
    But isn't that what a prospect list is about? Taking all the warts (age, stats, etc.) and determining who's overall value is greater?

    That's how I look at it, and it's why I think lack of stats should not be reason enough to put guys like Valaika ahead of them.

    Because our underlying rankings are really quite similar... we both would rather have upside in our organization rather than low upside less risky players (as shown by your second list). So I'm just not sure what the difference is between the two lists. The guys I'd rather have, I consider the better prospects because ultimately I think their value will be higher to the Reds in the long run. The lack of production doesn't stop that for me.

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- May Edition

    Turner and Herrera may be short of stature but will be major leaguers. I would put them at the low end of the B list. I think Fisher and Viola are too high, IMO. Not convinced either is a major leaguer.

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- May Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Kearns View Post
    But isn't that what a prospect list is about? Taking all the warts (age, stats, etc.) and determining who's overall value is greater?

    That's how I look at it, and it's why I think lack of stats should not be reason enough to put guys like Valaika ahead of them.

    Because our underlying rankings are really quite similar... we both would rather have upside in our organization rather than low upside less risky players (as shown by your second list). So I'm just not sure what the difference is between the two lists. The guys I'd rather have, I consider the better prospects because ultimately I think their value will be higher to the Reds in the long run. The lack of production doesn't stop that for me.
    You make good points regarding the players' underlying value. I just think it's unfair to put kids high on a list that are at least four or five years from ever contributing anything at the big league level. You have to have some kind of likelihood to hit their upside-component built in, or else you're literally just scouting their tools. Mesoraco and Duran have an abundance of talent, but it's both unrealistic and unfair to place these kids so high on the team's list at this point, ahead of so many guys that have completely outperformed them. You have to factor that in somehow.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: Reds Top 25 Prospects- May Edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I think Fisher and Viola are too high, IMO. Not convinced either is a major leaguer.
    Neither am I despite their electric stuff. That's why they're only guys to "keep an eye on."
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