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Thread: Is Stubbs Too Stubborn?

  1. #1
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Is Stubbs Too Stubborn?

    From Marc Hulet at Fangraphs.com

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...orn-to-succeed

    Drew Stubbs has always been a talented ballplayer. He was a third round pick of the Houston Astros out of high school (Heís a Texas native) but chose to attend the University of Texas. He was then selected in the first round (eighth overall), and signed, by the Cincinnati Reds in 2006.

    The 6-5, 190 pound outfielder looks like a ballplayer; he oozes tools and has excellent makeup. But there have always been questions about how well he would adjust to pro ball with a long swing and a history of difficulties with breaking balls.

    Those concerns appeared justified after Stubbs, now 23, made his debut in the Pioneer Rookie League and hit only .252/.368/.400, which should be considered below average for a collegiate player in a league comprised mostly of high schoolers and raw Latin players. He also struck out 64 times in 210 at-bats.

    The next season in 2007, Stubbs started out slowly in the Midwest League while many other top 2006 college picks were already in High-A ball. He was striking out at an alarming rate and many said those Ks would be the downfall of his professional career. Then the Dayton management, tired of seeing the players strikeout too much, forced everyone to choke up on the bat for a week.

    Stubbs was so successful with that approach that he kept doing it, even after the choking-up enforcement was lifted. In the first year and a half of his career, Stubbs struck out 190 times in 161 games. In his last 24 games of 2007, Stubbs struck out only 16 times.

    This season, though, the strikeouts are back with 34 in 31 games (115 at-bats), but he is hitting .296/.388/.470. Overall in 2007, he struck out 28.6 percent of the time. In 2008, heís at 29.2 percent. If Stubbs can maintain his triple-slash rates while striking out at the same pace, he can still be an effective everyday ballplayer. However, itís hard to believe he can continue to do so once he hits the better pitching that comes at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, let alone the majors.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  3. #2
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Re: Is Stubbs Too Stubborn?

    I hope he isn't terse

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Is Stubbs Too Stubborn?

    How does that title go with the content of the article at all?

    As for the question.... no, he isn't.

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    Re: Is Stubbs Too Stubborn?

    He was supposed to crash and burn in the FSL, too.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Is Stubbs Too Stubborn?

    Quote Originally Posted by lollipopcurve View Post
    He was supposed to crash and burn in the FSL, too.
    He still may

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    Member NJReds's Avatar
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    Re: Is Stubbs Too Stubborn?

    Quote Originally Posted by Aronchis View Post
    He still may
    ...and he may not.
    "The players make the manager, it's never the other way." - Sparky Anderson

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    Re: Is Stubbs Too Stubborn?

    I figure that he's a Chattanooga player, easy. If BJ Szymanski can hit there, anyone can.

    all bets are off after that.

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    Re: Is Stubbs Too Stubborn?

    I figure that he's a Chattanooga player, easy. If BJ Szymanski can hit there, anyone can.
    Sometimes it takes a tools guy some time to learn how to use them. BJ's OPS against LHs is looking pretty good right now. I think he's got a chance to get beyond AA with a ceiling as a platoon guy in the bigs. Stubbs is just better than BJ -- hands down.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Is Stubbs Too Stubborn?

    I think everybody agrees that Stubbs has a boatload of talent. The issue is that he's already 23 and only in high A ball. It's not that he won't make it, just that he's got a long ways to go yet and time is working against him. He needs to move a level a year. So far, so good in 2008, but he's got to keep up this rate of improvement for the next 3.

    Striking out a ton is a lot like not striking guys out for pitchers. It's not the sort of thing that goes away with time and tends to get worse. Stubbs is pretty much at the limit of of striking out while being a productive player. He's going to have to continue working at his contact rate, because if it goes downhill as he goes up the levels, he's toast.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #10
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Is Stubbs Too Stubborn?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I think everybody agrees that Stubbs has a boatload of talent. The issue is that he's already 23 and only in high A ball. It's not that he won't make it, just that he's got a long ways to go yet and time is working against him. He needs to move a level a year. So far, so good in 2008, but he's got to keep up this rate of improvement for the next 3.

    Striking out a ton is a lot like not striking guys out for pitchers. It's not the sort of thing that goes away with time and tends to get worse. Stubbs is pretty much at the limit of of striking out while being a productive player. He's going to have to continue working at his contact rate, because if it goes downhill as he goes up the levels, he's toast.
    That's the kind of language that supports why Stubbs is a bust so far to this point in his career.

    He may get it all figured out and have a glorious MLB career, but time is working against him. His long swing isn't helping his cause either.

    Thankfully, he's Secretariat @ the Preakness in CF, and that alone will eventually get him a roster spot on someone's 25 man roster. Hopefully that someone's 25 man roster is the Reds, and hopefully it's sooner than later, but IMO the earliest we'll see Stubbs in a Reds jersey is 2010.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Is Stubbs Too Stubborn?

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    That's the kind of language that supports why Stubbs is a bust so far to this point in his career.
    See, I just don't see that. If he keeps hitting he will finish the year in AA at age 23. Thats not off target for a lot of people....

  13. #12
    Tired of talk. Win! Joseph's Avatar
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    Re: Is Stubbs Too Stubborn?

    He's not a bust, but I do think he needs to make AA this year, and perhaps force his way into AAA next year out of spring training. At worst if he's not in AAA at some point next year, then the talk of bust should start in earnest as opposed to just the knee jerk reactions we tend to take a lot of times.

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    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Is Stubbs Too Stubborn?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    See, I just don't see that. If he keeps hitting he will finish the year in AA at age 23. Thats not off target for a lot of people....
    Except he's not hitting. He hasn't really hit in a week. His professional career to date is so screwy we can't tell yet what the REAL Stubbs is at the plate. I want him to be everything you think he is, but the stats don't bear that out. His play right now isn't screaming promotion.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  15. #14
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Is Stubbs Too Stubborn?

    He has had a week long slump. He has been a little unlucky over that time posting a .150 BABIP over the last week. During that time though, he also has 5 walks and 8 strikeouts.

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    Re: Is Stubbs Too Stubborn?

    That .150 BABIP isn't unlucky. His BABIP has been way high all year long -it was due for an adjustment.


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