Turn Off Ads?
Results 1 to 5 of 5

Thread: Jr and Dunn ... what's up

  1. #1
    He has the Evil Eye! flyer85's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    south of the border
    Posts
    23,858

    Jr and Dunn ... what's up

    we know that they are both off to slow starts so I went to fangraphs to look a little deeper into the numbers.

    Dunn: The one thing the jumped out was BABIP which was very much below norm(.243 vs .292 career) ... his LD% is down slightly(17.8). The other difference is his GB/FB ratio is 1.0 versus 0.73. Obviously less FBs generally means less HRs. His contact percentages show nothing major going on. Too many GBs, some bad luck and a bit of a slow start seem to be the only issue.

    Jr: While his BABIP is down(.265 vs .285 career) his LD % has dropped considerably over the last 3 seasons and is down to 12.5% this year. His HR/FB % is down more than 50% from his norm(8% vs 17%). In Jrs case it could be a slow start but it also could be father time catching up causing a serious drop in power. When you reach the late 30s and aren't juicing there is always the distinct possibly that the skills have simply disappeared. Jrs numbers will need to be watched closely to see what is happening is an aberration or a new trend.
    What are you, people? On dope? - Mr Hand

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Ohio
    Posts
    1,633

    Re: Jr and Dunn ... what's up

    I think the key with Jr. is to evaluate what happens after 600. This very well could be father-time catching up or just someone off to a slow start and is pressing to reach a milestone, the month after 600 occurs should be very telling.

  4. #3
    Member Wheelhouse's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    2,903

    Re: Jr and Dunn ... what's up

    Age?
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

  5. #4
    Bread Gloves Razor Shines's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Austin, Texas
    Posts
    6,306

    Re: Jr and Dunn ... what's up

    Quote Originally Posted by flyer85 View Post
    we know that they are both off to slow starts so I went to fangraphs to look a little deeper into the numbers.

    Dunn: The one thing the jumped out was BABIP which was very much below norm(.243 vs .292 career) ... his LD% is down slightly(17.8). The other difference is his GB/FB ratio is 1.0 versus 0.73. Obviously less FBs generally means less HRs. His contact percentages show nothing major going on. Too many GBs, some bad luck and a bit of a slow start seem to be the only issue.

    Jr: While his BABIP is down(.265 vs .285 career) his LD % has dropped considerably over the last 3 seasons and is down to 12.5% this year. His HR/FB % is down more than 50% from his norm(8% vs 17%). In Jrs case it could be a slow start but it also could be father time catching up causing a serious drop in power. When you reach the late 30s and aren't juicing there is always the distinct possibly that the skills have simply disappeared. Jrs numbers will need to be watched closely to see what is happening is an aberration or a new trend.
    Good post. I've been reluctant to say that Jr's hitting skills have dramatically faded from last year to this one, but it looks like that's possibly what has happened. I thought there would be a slight drop off, but I expected Jr. to put up numbers near what he did last year. I am still holding out hope that he'll rebound from a slow April similar to the way he did last year.

    I still say he can be productive if his patience at the plate increases. Last year he walked once every 7 PAs this year he's walking once every 10 PAs. His P/PA is still very good this year (3.96) so it could be that he's being just as patient as last year, but he's not walking because no one is afraid of him. I hope that's not the case but if I'm honest I have to admit that it's looking like a real possibility.

  6. #5
    Member Jpup's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Southern KY
    Posts
    6,967

    Re: Jr and Dunn ... what's up

    It appears, from watching the games, that Dunn has hit a lot of balla hard that have found people. I also think the book is catching up with him combined with pressing a little. Jr. is just off to his normal slow start and his age is catching up.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25