Jay Bruce Current Splits

[IamWallaman]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8171/news

Don't know how "soon" they're talking about... but if it means Patterson is gone, it can't be soon enough.

[RedlegJake]

Really good opinions and backup info on this thread! The Reds need Jay Bruce but they need him to succeed.

Bringing him up before he's ready will be hard on Bruce since he is already anointed savior by the press and the casual fan base. That said, I think he'll adjust to ML hitting as he has quickly done at each level but his success may be helped by

a/hitting him lower in the lineup initially, taking pressure off him a bit and making him be selective as pitchers will be cautious.

b/Keeping Dusty and his "walking is for dogs" line and "often the best pitch to hit is the first one" line away from him.

A can be accomplished. B he will have to learn to ignore. For a young hitter who needs to learn to take a walk I cant think of a manager less likely to assist his development once he hits the bigs.

[Spring~Fields]

I have seen nothing to change my mind that Jay Bruce was then and still is the right player to be playing everyday in a Reds uniform.

Many of us were determined throughout and at the end of spring training that Jay Bruce was the player for the job, while others went along with the company line and Dusty Baker saying that Bruce needed more time down in AAA.

I think that it is a shame that the staff that evaluated Bruce to be beneath the current roster players in the outfield of the Reds made such a poor decision during spring training, while they sent other players north who were struggling, and continue to struggle or had a poor history to reject Bruce in lieu of them.

When a player hits like this below I don’t concern myself with strikeouts and walks or age biases.

Jay Bruce was quoted as having said, “that one day I will look back on being sent down this past spring training and laugh”. I can’t help but believe him.

Jay Bruce
145 AB, 27 R, 53 H, 9 2B, 5 3B, 8 HR, 33 RBI, 96 TB, 11 BB,
34 So, 7 SB

Season .366 .398 .662 1.060

Splits Update
vs Left .383 .380 .660 1.040
vs Right .357 .405 .663 1.069

Home Games .383 .418 .850 1.268
Away Games .353 .383 .529 .912

April .316 .340 .561 .901
May .468 .509 .872 1.381

Ahead in Count .460 .548 .840 1.388
Bases Empty .337 .368 .627 .994
Runners On .403 .432 .710 1.142
Scoring Position .368 .420 .737 1.157

I wanted to see what a couple other players did in the minors that we are actually familiar with and then how they have done in the majors.

Minor League Stats
Josh Hamilton
1999
Rk .347 .382 .593 .975
A- .194 .205 .236 .441
2000
A .302 .347 .476 .823
2001
A .364 .462 .727 1.189
AA .180 .223 .236 .459
2002
A+ .303 .364 .507 .871
2006
A- .260 .327 .360 .687
2007
AAA .350 .422 .675 1.097
Cin. 292 .368 .554 .922
2008
Tex. .301 .357 .552 .909

Joey Votto
2002
RK .269 .347 .531 .878
2003
RK ..317 .446 .488 .934
A .231 .345 .287 .632
2004
A .302 .419 .486 .905
A + .298 .379 .560 .939

2005
A+ .256 .330 .425 .755
2006
AA .319 .408 .547 .955
2007
AAA .294 .381 .478 .859
Cin. .321 .360 .548 .907

2008
Cin. .288 .358 .568 .925

[RedsManRick]

FWIW, if Bruce walks twice in his next game, he's pretty much at 12 AB/BB. Not that his current walk rate is good, but I can't help but wonder if the way he's approach his at bats aren't harming his walk rate. I'd be very curious to see his swing rates on strikes and balls. If he's swinging more overall, that would both inflate his SO rate and depress his BB rate.

When faced with better competition, perhaps he adopts a more patient approach. 100% conjecture at this point, but it's hard to not justify the promotion of a guy OPSing 1.060.

[Cyclone792]

FWIW, if Bruce walks twice in his next game, he's pretty much at 12 AB/BB. Not that his current walk rate is good, but I can't help but wonder if the way he's approach his at bats aren't harming his walk rate. I'd be very curious to see his swing rates on strikes and balls. If he's swinging more overall, that would both inflate his SO rate and depress his BB rate.

When faced with better competition, perhaps he adopts a more patient approach. 100% conjecture at this point, but it's hard to not justify the promotion of a guy OPSing 1.060.

This is partially why I've found the cutoff to be around 12 PA per walk, and it's a soft cutoff moreso than a hard cutoff. If Bruce's AAA walk rate is 13.50 rather than 12, it's not too big of a deal. His full minor league walk rate is now 11.60, and that's likely more important so long as his AAA walk rate hasn't fallen off a cliff (and it hasn't).

The key is what I've found, which is the difference between say ... 35 walks and 50 walks every 600 PAs is much more significant than the difference between 65 walks and 50 walks every 600 PAs. The 35s are just hackers through and through who are what they are and rarely change while 50s and up have shown enough plate discipline and plate control to have continued success in the big leagues, both in walk rates and in overall production.

BTW, here's a more detailed post I made last year on this.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...te#post1327018

The interesting thing I find when looking at it now is I very much come to the same conclusion on Bruce: I think he's where he needs to be to join what I term the Alex Rodriguez Club. His minor league walk rates are right at the level they need to be to take that next step once he gets a decent sample of big league PAs. Even a year later, he's still the type of hitting prospect where I wouldn't be surprised if he's drawing 75 walks a year by the time he's 26. He's following precisely the same path, both in minor league hitting dominance and minor league walk rates, as some other great, young hitters.

[Spring~Fields]

I agree with you

Conjecture - a conclusion, judgment, or statement based on incomplete or inconclusive information

That is an excellent choice and right choice for the input/feedback regarding Jay Bruce at the major league level. True we don’t have complete or conclusive information, so his major league performance is guesswork at this time, we can’t determine how he will perform against the major league pitchers without the future information that is gathered from his output at that level.

I also think that we agree that his numbers in the minors are consistent and large enough to cover some of the unknown, some of the questions marks that are yet to be determined, to cover some of the ups and downs that are normally expected to come with the player moving up.

As you are suggesting, I believe that his stats say that Jay Bruce has qualified safely with a decent cushion for error, in his stats, for the opportunity to play at the major league level.

Will his skills at the plate continue to improve at the mlb level, or will he be a flash in the pan flop, or somewhere in the middle, that all remains to be seen. I think that we all agree that his consistent/strong numbers indicate a very good chance of success at the next level.

One thing that does bother me and perhaps all of you will respond, take a sedative in disagreeing with me, I am concerned about Bruce being called up to the Reds when they have several tenured ballplayers with future contract status in question. How he might be received with them, Griffey, Dunn, Patterson and Freel, when this new boy comes in looking to push them out, even Dusty’s approach and handling of Bruce and the situation.
I would like a situation where Bruce only has to focus on baseball skills only.

[Spring~Fields]

Jocketty addresses Bruce, Jr.
GM: Team in no rush to call up Bruce, has had no Jr. trade talks
BY JOHN FAY

Jay Bruce might be the hottest hitter on the planet. The Reds prospect went 3-for-3 with a double, triple and home run for Triple-A Lousville in an 11-6 win over Scranton today. He's hitting .667 with three home runs and nine RBI over his last five games. He's hitting .611 over his last 10 games.

Does it get to the point where the Reds need to bring him up?

"The main thing is you've got to make sure you've got enough playing time," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. "I don't think we feel comfortable that we have the adequate playing time. At some point, we just have to do it. Believe me, it hasn't gone unnoticed. We have so many good left-handed hitting outfielders, we have to see what would be the best time to bring him up.

"At some point, you just do it."

An opening obviously would be created if the Reds traded Ken Griffey Jr. But for all the talk about that, nothing is even remotely close to happening.

"I've had no trade discussions," Jocketty said.

Jocketty has talked to Griffey about the situation. As a player with 10 years experience and five years tenure with his current club, Griffey must approve any trade.

"I've talked with him," Jocketty said. "Not knowing Junior that well, I wanted to make sure we had a line of communication open. He assured me that he'd like to play here and hopefully win a championship."




At least I know what the real obstacles and holdup is now.

[OnBaseMachine]

Where are all these good left-handed hitting outfielders they speak of?

[membengal]

It appears Jocketty is suffering from some sort of exposure to hallucinogens. Unfortunate.

[Spring~Fields]

Where are all these good left-handed hitting outfielders they speak of?

I don’t know unless that is code for the following below.

I am guessing that he means that he has so many outfielders that they are paying a lot money to now with major league tenure, and that the other teams haven’t shown any interest in them, Hairston, Patterson, Freel, Griffey, Dunn and Hopper so he has no room for Bruce at this time. (off the wall thought follows) I bet that he could trade Bruce faster than the ones he has right now.

[SultanOfSwing]

Also of note: how many pitches he sees per plate appearance

As of 4/29, his current rate is 3.85 P/PA. That would be top-8 in the ML for either CF or RF (for both 2007 and 2008).

From this it appears he has very good plate discipline. He just ends up smacking the ball more often than not. If his batting average was a little lower but his walk rate higher, would everyone be happier? Say .308 .378? Probably. Would he be a better hitter? Probably not.

When he reaches the majors, he will likely discover that he cannot crush the pitching as easily (at least not at first). Therefore, he will be a little less aggressive and his walk rate will rise. I also believe he will learn to walk more often as he matures at the ML level, without sacrificing his other attributes.

One thing is certain: Jay Bruce is not a hacker. He does not seem to be swinging at anything and everything and finding success due to inferior pitching. He has been selective.

Many thanks to OBM for the P/PA stats:
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=67623

[mlbfan30]

"The main thing is you've got to make sure you've got enough playing time," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. "I don't think we feel comfortable that we have the adequate playing time. At some point, we just have to do it. Believe me, it hasn't gone unnoticed. We have so many good left-handed hitting outfielders, we have to see what would be the best time to bring him up.

This is what sticks out to me. How is it so hard for Patterson to be the 4th OF with Bruce starting fulltime at CF. I really don't understand why the organization is so against Bruce playing CF. Bruce isn't great, but he's not bad. This is just a horrible excuse. Just bring him up, sign him to a Longoria/Tolo/Braun deal, and let him play. It's not that hard.

[dougdirt]

Yeah, who needs playing time for a kid with a 1.060 OPS in AAA when we have 4 outfielders currently getting most of the time all under .800 OPS and 3 of the 4 under .730? I know the Reds sure don't.

[Spring~Fields]

Bruce -  Splits Update 5/21/07
Games 45	AB 168	        Runs 32	        Hits 62   2B 9	
3B 5		HR 10		RBI 37		TB 111	BB 11
SO 41		SB 8		CS 1	

Season		AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	
		.369	.397	.661	1.057

Vs. Left	.400	.396	.720	1.116
Vs. Right	.356	.397	.636	1.033

Home		.373	.402	.827	1.229
Away		.366	.392	.527	.919
		
Day		.411	.444	.786	1.230
Night		.348	.372	.598	.970

April		.316	.340	.561	.901
May		.443	.474	.800	1.274

Ahead Count	.448	.529	.828	1.356
Behind Count	.179	.167	.375	.542

Bases Empty	.340	.366	.619	.985
Runners On	.408	.434	.718	1.152
Scoring Pos	.390	.434	.805	1.239