The Lost Decade Average Season: 74-88
2014-22 Average Season: 71-91
I don't believe it is just the strikeouts that is the worry - it probably more the way he strikes out - if it is something that could make him subsceptible to major league pitching then it may be that the REDS want to make sure he knows how to deal with it before he is brought up.
I didn't change my argument, I provided additional information to support it. Big difference.
He does strike out too much. Maybe you missed what I said the first time (even though it's stated pretty clearly), but it's no less relevant. Original point still stands. I don't think he's ready.
Last edited by fearofpopvol1; 05-12-2008 at 03:45 PM.
A phone call away
It's hard to imagine we haven't talked about Jay Bruce since the season began. I'd say that the Reds' top prospect is on fire right now, but truthfully, that's how he hits all the time. He's now up to .328 with a .565 slugging percentage at Triple-A. The Reds are in last place, and Corey Patterson is still getting regular playing time in spite of his .196 average. If this is a service-time thing, then Bruce could get the call at the end of this month or at the beginning of June to provide a much-needed spark. When that happens, everyone in every kind of league should pick him up, because he's going to play once he does get up.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/n...milb&fext=.jsp
Jay Bruce playing CF after game one today 05/12/08
Splits Update
Season - .348 .375 .609 .984
vs Left .370 .354 .609 .963
vs Right .337.385 .609 .993
April .316 .340 .561 .901
May .425 .457 .725 1.182
Bases Empty .316 .341 .557 .898
Runners On .390 .414 .678 1.092
Scoring Position .343 .391 .686 1.077
I am not being sarcastic or rude or taking issue below with the other posters who disagree here.
I just don’t see in the real numbers or percentages, the objective facts, where Bruces strikeouts or bat control concerns are realistically hurting his production or performance numbers which are a true indicator of his abilities to date.
Last edited by Spring~Fields; 05-12-2008 at 05:42 PM.
Pitchers are going to start pitching around him very soon and his walks will rise. His OPS will be over 1.000 by the end of the month IMO.
Down in the minors a player can quite easily rake while still drawing few walks. That type of stuff happens fairly often when you're facing marginal major league pitchers and pitching prospects who are still very much fine tuning their game.
But in the majors there's a clearly-defined scenario that unfolds when players are unable to draw walks, which is that players who draw few walks have a low ceiling on what they'll slug.
This is all proven throughout major league history too. See the chart I posted not too long ago: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...8&postcount=16
What I mean is, with absolute rate exception - and I'm talking rare as in a handful of times in major league history - will you see a guy slug much higher than .500 or so with a poor walk rate. Brandon Phillips is a pretty good example here: poor walk rate, subpar on-base percentage, slugs decent but he's still not going to slug .550. He may slug .500 periodically, give or take a few points, but that's his ceiling in slugging unless he walks more. Alfonso Soriano is the absolute outlier here, but he's a very rare exception, not the rule.
The cutoff for me is typically a PA/BB ratio of 12, or 1 walk every 12 plate appearances. If players can show a history of walking at least once every 12 plate appearances, then typically they have enough history of plate discipline to continue improving their walk rate and improving their total offensive game. It's when guys are higher than 12 that they really start to struggle with plate discipline, and subsequently overall offensive production, once they face major league pitching on a regular basis (see Wily Mo Pena as a perfect example). Here's Bruce's minor league career so far in PA/BB:
Rookie (GCL + Billings): 9.86
Low-A (Dayton): 11.32
High-A (Sarasota): 12.42
Double-A (Chattanooga): 9.25
Triple-A (Louisville): 14.54
Total: 11.77
For his minor league career, Bruce is right near the cutoff with a PA/BB ratio of 11.77 (I didn't bother including today). His AAA rates are a bit higher than I'd like to see though at 14.54. I'd really like to see that ratio drop close to 12 before the Reds call him up. The closer to 12 that ratio gets, the happier I am. That doesn't mean Bruce is going to fall on his face if his AAA walk rate is only 14 rather than 12, but it does mean I think he'll have a bit less chance at breaking out in the majors right away.
As far as when the Reds decide to call Bruce up, well they're saying the right things, but we all know what the Reds say and what they ultimately do can be two totally different things. Whether Bruce's walk rate improves or not, I expect him in a Reds uniform within a month. If nothing else, the Reds will promote him as a publicity stunt ala Bailey last season to help prevent dwindling interest in the team at the attendance gate as the team lingers in last place.
The Lost Decade Average Season: 74-88
2014-22 Average Season: 71-91
2007
Sar .325 .379 .586 .965
Cha .333 .405 .652 1.057
Lou .305 .358 .567 .925
2008
.348 .375 .609 .984
Last edited by Spring~Fields; 05-12-2008 at 08:32 PM.
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