Jay Bruce Current Splits

[Cyclone792]

I completely disagree. You can become better with your plate discipline with age. He's striking out in more than 25% of his plate appearences in AAA. Pitching in the bigs won't be any easier to hit, so he's likely to see that % go up. The Ks would be okay if he walked more, but he doesn't. I'm not suggesting that the Reds wait forever or anything, but he needs to be better with pitch recognition to really succeed.

Your original post merely stated that Bruce strikes out too much for your liking; you listed nothing in it involving walks.

So which is it? He strikes out too much, or he doesn't walk enough?

[fearofpopvol1]

Your original post merely stated that Bruce strikes out too much for your liking; you listed nothing in it involving walks.

So which is it? He strikes out too much, or he doesn't walk enough?

Just because I didn't list the walks doesn't mean it's not any more relevant. It's both.

[Cyclone792]

Just because I didn't list the walks doesn't mean it's not any more relevant. It's both.

This is hilarious; dude, your original post simply said he strikes out too much.

When called on it, your argument shifted.

Gotta love it.

[Nugget]

I don't believe it is just the strikeouts that is the worry - it probably more the way he strikes out - if it is something that could make him subsceptible to major league pitching then it may be that the REDS want to make sure he knows how to deal with it before he is brought up.

[fearofpopvol1]

This is hilarious; dude, your original post simply said he strikes out too much.

When called on it, your argument shifted.

Gotta love it.

I didn't change my argument, I provided additional information to support it. Big difference.

He does strike out too much. Maybe you missed what I said the first time (even though it's stated pretty clearly), but it's no less relevant. Original point still stands. I don't think he's ready.

[Cyclone792]

I didn't change my argument, I provided additional information to support it. Big difference.

He does strike out too much. Maybe you missed what I said the first time (even though it's stated pretty clearly), but it's no less relevant. Original point still stands. I don't think he's ready.

Then why didn't you post all of that the first time instead of merely saying he strikes out too much?

[fearofpopvol1]

Then why didn't you post all of that the first time instead of merely saying he strikes out too much?

Because I didn't have all the stats in front of me at that time.

[OnBaseMachine]

A phone call away

It's hard to imagine we haven't talked about Jay Bruce since the season began. I'd say that the Reds' top prospect is on fire right now, but truthfully, that's how he hits all the time. He's now up to .328 with a .565 slugging percentage at Triple-A. The Reds are in last place, and Corey Patterson is still getting regular playing time in spite of his .196 average. If this is a service-time thing, then Bruce could get the call at the end of this month or at the beginning of June to provide a much-needed spark. When that happens, everyone in every kind of league should pick him up, because he's going to play once he does get up.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/n...milb&fext=.jsp

[Stingray]

A player is not eligible for free agency until he has six years' worth of service time (as defined by time on the big club's active roster or DL, with a "year" equalling 172 days). That is independent of anything that has to do with arbitration. Arbitration eligibility begins after three years of service time, unless the player qualifies as a super-two.

Because Bruce has spent six weeks or so in the minors already, the earliest he can be eligible for free agency is after the 2014 season. If he comes up now, he might be eligible for arbitration after the 2010 season as a super-two. If he came up in mid-June, he likely wouldn't be arb-eligible until after 2011. But either way, it doesn't change his free-agency threshold.

Thanks for the info IR. I guess the FA date for Homer would also be 2014 but if he came up now the arb date would probably be 2010. Under those conditions there is some $ advantage to wait until early June for Bruce or early July for Homer.

[Spring~Fields]

Jay Bruce playing CF after game one today 05/12/08
Splits Update

Season - .348 .375 .609 .984

vs Left .370 .354 .609 .963
vs Right .337.385 .609 .993

April .316 .340 .561 .901
May .425 .457 .725 1.182

Bases Empty .316 .341 .557 .898
Runners On .390 .414 .678 1.092
Scoring Position .343 .391 .686 1.077

I am not being sarcastic or rude or taking issue below with the other posters who disagree here.

I just don’t see in the real numbers or percentages, the objective facts, where Bruces strikeouts or bat control concerns are realistically hurting his production or performance numbers which are a true indicator of his abilities to date.

[Grande Donkey]

Pitchers are going to start pitching around him very soon and his walks will rise. His OPS will be over 1.000 by the end of the month IMO.

[Spring~Fields]

Pitchers are going to start pitching around him very soon and his walks will rise. His OPS will be over 1.000 by the end of the month IMO.

And he has nothing special hitting in front or behind him in my opinion, I think that you will be right. May ops so far 1.182

[Cyclone792]

I am not being sarcastic or rude or taking issue below with the other posters who disagree here.

I just don’t see in the real numbers or percentages, the objective facts, where Bruces strikeouts or bat control concerns are realistically hurting his production or performance numbers which are a true indicator of his abilities to date.

Down in the minors a player can quite easily rake while still drawing few walks. That type of stuff happens fairly often when you're facing marginal major league pitchers and pitching prospects who are still very much fine tuning their game.

But in the majors there's a clearly-defined scenario that unfolds when players are unable to draw walks, which is that players who draw few walks have a low ceiling on what they'll slug.

This is all proven throughout major league history too. See the chart I posted not too long ago: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...8&postcount=16

What I mean is, with absolute rate exception - and I'm talking rare as in a handful of times in major league history - will you see a guy slug much higher than .500 or so with a poor walk rate. Brandon Phillips is a pretty good example here: poor walk rate, subpar on-base percentage, slugs decent but he's still not going to slug .550. He may slug .500 periodically, give or take a few points, but that's his ceiling in slugging unless he walks more. Alfonso Soriano is the absolute outlier here, but he's a very rare exception, not the rule.

The cutoff for me is typically a PA/BB ratio of 12, or 1 walk every 12 plate appearances. If players can show a history of walking at least once every 12 plate appearances, then typically they have enough history of plate discipline to continue improving their walk rate and improving their total offensive game. It's when guys are higher than 12 that they really start to struggle with plate discipline, and subsequently overall offensive production, once they face major league pitching on a regular basis (see Wily Mo Pena as a perfect example). Here's Bruce's minor league career so far in PA/BB:

Rookie (GCL + Billings): 9.86
Low-A (Dayton): 11.32
High-A (Sarasota): 12.42
Double-A (Chattanooga): 9.25
Triple-A (Louisville): 14.54

Total: 11.77

For his minor league career, Bruce is right near the cutoff with a PA/BB ratio of 11.77 (I didn't bother including today). His AAA rates are a bit higher than I'd like to see though at 14.54. I'd really like to see that ratio drop close to 12 before the Reds call him up. The closer to 12 that ratio gets, the happier I am. That doesn't mean Bruce is going to fall on his face if his AAA walk rate is only 14 rather than 12, but it does mean I think he'll have a bit less chance at breaking out in the majors right away.

As far as when the Reds decide to call Bruce up, well they're saying the right things, but we all know what the Reds say and what they ultimately do can be two totally different things. Whether Bruce's walk rate improves or not, I expect him in a Reds uniform within a month. If nothing else, the Reds will promote him as a publicity stunt ala Bailey last season to help prevent dwindling interest in the team at the attendance gate as the team lingers in last place.

[Spring~Fields]

2007
Sar .325 .379 .586 .965
Cha .333 .405 .652 1.057
Lou .305 .358 .567 .925

2008
.348 .375 .609 .984

[Spring~Fields]

Down in the minors a player can quite easily rake while still drawing few walks. That type of stuff happens fairly often when you're facing marginal major league pitchers and pitching prospects who are still very much fine tuning their game.

But in the majors there's a clearly-defined scenario that unfolds when players are unable to draw walks, which is that players who draw few walks have a low ceiling on what they'll slug.

This is all proven throughout major league history too. See the chart I posted not too long ago: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...8&postcount=16

What I mean is, with absolute rate exception - and I'm talking rare as in a handful of times in major league history - will you see a guy slug much higher than .500 or so with a poor walk rate. Brandon Phillips is a pretty good example here: poor walk rate, subpar on-base percentage, slugs decent but he's still not going to slug .550. He may slug .500 periodically, give or take a few points, but that's his ceiling in slugging unless he walks more. Alfonso Soriano is the absolute outlier here, but he's a very rare exception, not the rule.

The cutoff for me is typically a PA/BB ratio of 12, or 1 walk every 12 plate appearances. If players can show a history of walking at least once every 12 plate appearances, then typically they have enough history of plate discipline to continue improving their walk rate and improving their total offensive game. It's when guys are higher than 12 that they really start to struggle with plate discipline, and subsequently overall offensive production, once they face major league pitching on a regular basis (see Wily Mo Pena as a perfect example). Here's Bruce's minor league career so far in PA/BB:

Rookie (GCL + Billings): 9.86
Low-A (Dayton): 11.32
High-A (Sarasota): 12.42
Double-A (Chattanooga): 9.25
Triple-A (Louisville): 14.54

Total: 11.77

For his minor league career, Bruce is right near the cutoff with a PA/BB ratio of 11.77 (I didn't bother including today). His AAA rates are a bit higher than I'd like to see though at 14.54. I'd really like to see that ratio drop close to 12 before the Reds call him up. The closer to 12 that ratio gets, the happier I am. That doesn't mean Bruce is going to fall on his face if his AAA walk rate is only 14 rather than 12, but it does mean I think he'll have a bit less chance at breaking out in the majors right away.

As far as when the Reds decide to call Bruce up, well they're saying the right things, but we all know what the Reds say and what they ultimately do can be two totally different things. Whether Bruce's walk rate improves or not, I expect him in a Reds uniform within a month. If nothing else, the Reds will promote him as a publicity stunt ala Bailey last season to help prevent dwindling interest in the team at the attendance gate as the team lingers in last place.

I think that is very interesting and insightful information and thank you for taking the time to draw that out for me.
Thanks Cyclone