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Thread: Reds free agents to be and money...

  1. #1
    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Reds free agents to be and money...

    From Fay:

    Free agents, 13 of them

    Much has been made about the fact that Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn are free agents after the season. In Griffey's case, the Reds hold an option. But they can let him go with a $4 million parting gift.

    But 11 other players on the current 25-man roster are free agents as well. That's the most in baseball. Here's the list:

    David Ross
    Javy Valentin
    Paul Bako
    Scott Hatteberg
    Jerry Hairston Jr.
    Corey Patterson
    David Weathers
    Jeremy Affeldt
    Kent Mercker
    Mike Lincoln
    Josh Fogg

    Ross also has an option -- for $3.5 million.

    Walt Jocketty is going to have a chance to makeover the roster. Those 13 players accounted for $43 million of the $74.1 million payroll.

    But the veterans under contract for next year all get good raises, so the Reds are on the hook for $46.5 million for six players:

    Bronson Arroyo $9.5 million
    Francisco Cordero $12 million
    Aaron Harang $11 million
    Brandon Phillips $4.75 million
    Ryan Freel $4 million
    Alex Gonzalez $5.375 million

    I hate to write about money and contracts, but this all affects what the Reds can and cannot do.

    Hopefully, this post will change the current debate, which I'm not entirely sure is about

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  3. #2
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Reds free agents to be and money...

    A lot of those free agents might have to take a cut in pay if they can find a job to begin with.

  4. #3
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds free agents to be and money...

    $20 mil tied up in Gonzalez, Freel, and Bronson next year.

    That can't happen.
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  5. #4
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    Re: Reds free agents to be and money...

    Quote Originally Posted by reds44 View Post
    $20 mil tied up in Gonzalez, Freel, and Bronson next year.

    That can't happen.
    Why not?

    Freel at $4 million is a bit rich but not much. He's a borderline starting player, certainly an excellent utility guy.

    Arroyo led the team in quality starts last year. Bad start this year shouldn't write him off.

    Gonzo is hurt. Guys get hurt.

  6. #5
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds free agents to be and money...

    Assuming Dunn is gone and Junior is bought out, how much money is committed and what does the roster look like? Where are the holes to be filled?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  7. #6
    Box of Frogs edabbs44's Avatar
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    Re: Reds free agents to be and money...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Assuming Dunn is gone and Junior is bought out, how much money is committed and what does the roster look like? Where are the holes to be filled?
    Do the math.

    But the veterans under contract for next year all get good raises, so the Reds are on the hook for $46.5 million for six players:

    Bronson Arroyo $9.5 million
    Francisco Cordero $12 million
    Aaron Harang $11 million
    Brandon Phillips $4.75 million
    Ryan Freel $4 million
    Alex Gonzalez $5.375 million
    Catcher is a gaping hole. So are 2 OF spots, unless Freel is the CFer. The pen. They have to get a middle of the order power bat somewhere, probably one of the OF spots.

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    Re: Reds free agents to be and money...

    A more interesting question is who do you think the Reds will keep/resign and who do YOU want to see them keep/resign.

    I'm probably in the minority, but I really think the Reds should consider resigning Affedlt. He's looked pretty solid to me. Maybe a 2-3 year deal depending on how the rest of the season plays out. Mike Lincoln is someone I'd consider. He's looked pretty good, but I'm less sold on him right now. Everyone else can go as far as I'm concerned, though CF needs some serious addressing.

    You'd have to think the Reds will plan to resign either Ross or Bako, but not both. I'd say Javy is a goner.

  9. #8
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Reds free agents to be and money...

    David Ross
    Javy Valentin

    One of these two is gone IMO

    Paul Bako - resigned

    Scott Hatteberg -gone (traded by deadline possibly)

    Jerry Hairston Jr. - resigned. He's cheap

    Corey Patterson - gone

    David Weathers - gone

    Jeremy Affeldt - they should resign

    Kent Mercker - gone

    Mike Lincoln - they should resign

    Josh Fogg - gone

    You've also got guys like Belisle, Bray, Coffey, and Majewski, whose contracts are up at season's end. Also we are off the hook on Stanton for 3 mil.

    http://www.mlb4u.com/teamcontract.ph...cinnati%20Reds

    Jocketty has some monetary wiggle room after the season, that is for sure.
    "panic" only comes from having real expectations

  10. #9
    Miami Redhawks Redhook's Avatar
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    Re: Reds free agents to be and money...

    My major concern is getting a right-handed bat to take Dunn's spot. Bruce will fill RF, but they desperately need a RH power bat to play left and stabilize the lineup. I was really hoping the Reds would be able to get Matt Kemp, but he's heating up so I don't see that happening.

    Center Field is a concern too, but they can get away with an average one with Freel and spare parts. It's not ideal, but replacing Dunn and getting a catcher should be the #1 priority at this time.
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  11. #10
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Reds free agents to be and money...

    2009

    C: Hanigan and Bako
    1b: Votto
    2b: Phillips
    SS: AGon
    3B: EE
    LF: Dunn (re-signed)
    CF: Patterson or Stubbs
    RF: Bruce
    Utility: Kepp (250-400 Ab's)

    Bench: Freel (trade if possible), Dickerson or Strait, Rosales, FA

    SP: Harang, Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Arroyo
    BP: Cordero, Burton, Bray, Affeldt (re-sign), Roenicke, Belisle, FA

  12. #11
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds free agents to be and money...

    By my math, we're at ~$60M committed for 2009. Here's what looks to be our needs, with possible in house options in parenthesis:

    - Catcher & Backup Catcher (Hannigan)
    - Left Field & Right Field (Dickerson)
    - Backup 1B/3B (Rosales, Gutierrez)
    - Bullpen x3 (Coffey, McBeth, Herrera, Pelland, Maloney, Thompson, Roenicke, Viola, Ramon Ramirez)

    I think our biggest weakness right now is corner OF. Outside of Danny Dorn, I don't see much that makes sense. There might really be a logic to pursuing a 3B and moving EE to the OF if his throwing problems don't get better. I really don't like the FA crop, so I'd be looking acquire a bat, particularly a high OBP top of the order option like Reggie Willits. I think we've got enough power to get by (Votto, EE, Bruce, Phillips) if we can get rid of those OBP holes. Signing Dunn, if possible, to a 4/60 sort of deal makes all kinds of sense if you can't acquire other reasonable corner OF options via trade. A deal bigger than that could prove prohibitive given our other commitments.

    Belisle is admittedly a stretch. I think we'd be wise to trade him if at all possible to somebody who has a rotation spot for him that makes a $3M paycheck worth it. He's a guy I'm packaging in almost any trade because he value to us is less than it is to most other teams.

    Code:
    POS	NAME		SAL	ARB
    C
    1B	Votto		$ 0.45	(1+)
    2B	Phillips	$ 4.75
    SS	Gonzalez	$ 5.375
    3B	Encarnacion	$ 1.50	(3+)
    LF
    CF	Bruce		$ 0.40	(1+)
    RF
    BN	Freel		$ 4.00
    BN	Hopper		$ 0.45	(2+)
    BN	Keppinger	$ 0.45	(2+)
    BN
    BN
    
    SP	Harang		$11.00
    SP	Arroyo		$ 9.50
    SP	Volquez		$ 0.45	(1+) 
    SP	Cueto		$ 0.40	(1+)
    SP	Bailey		$ 0.40	(1+)
    LR	Belisle		$ 3.00	(4+)
    MR
    MR
    MR
    MR	Bray		$ 0.45	(1+)
    SU	Burton		$ 0.50	(2+)
    CL	Cordero		$12.00
    
    BO	Griffey		$ 4.00
    BO	Stanton		$ 0.50
    BO	Castro		$ 0.10
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 05-08-2008 at 09:00 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #12
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: Reds free agents to be and money...

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    By my math, we're at ~$60M committed for 2009. Here's what looks to be our needs, with possible in house options in parenthesis:

    - Catcher & Backup Catcher (Hannigan)
    - Left Field & Right Field (Dickerson)
    - Backup 1B/3B (Rosales, Gutierrez)
    - Bullpen x3 (Coffey, McBeth, Herrera, Pelland, Maloney, Thompson, Roenicke, Viola, Ramon Ramirez)

    I think our biggest weakness right now is corner OF. Outside of Danny Dorn, I don't see much that makes sense. There might really be a logic to pursuing a 3B and moving EE to the OF if his throwing problems don't get better. I really don't like the FA crop, so I'd be looking acquire a bat, particularly a high OBP top of the order option like Reggie Willits. I think we've got enough power to get by (Votto, EE, Bruce, Phillips) if we can get rid of those OBP holes. Signing Dunn, if possible, to a 4/60 sort of deal makes all kinds of sense if you can't acquire other reasonable corner OF options via trade. A deal bigger than that could prove prohibitive given our other commitments.

    Code:
    C
    1B	Votto		$ 0.45	(1+)
    2B	Phillips	$ 4.75
    SS	Gonazlez	$ 5.375
    3B	Encarnacion	$ 1.50	(3+)
    LF
    CF	Bruce		$ 0.40	(1+)
    RF
    BN	Freel		$ 4.00
    BN	Hopper		$ 0.45	(2+)
    BN	Keppinger	$ 0.45	(2+)
    BN
    BN
    
    SP	Harang		$11.00
    SP	Arroyo		$ 9.50
    SP	Volquez		$ 0.45	(1+) 
    SP	Cueto		$ 0.40	(1+)
    SP	Bailey		$ 0.40	(1+)
    LR	Belisle		$ 3.00	(arb)
    MR
    MR
    MR
    MR	Bray		$ 0.45
    SU	Burton		$ 0.50
    CL	Cordero		$12.00
    
    BO	Griffey		$ 4.00
    BO	Stanton		$ 0.50
    BO	Castro		$ 0.10
    Generally agree.

    I do think it is too early to be deciding on whether guys like Bako or Lincoln will be here in 2009.

    Belisle better pitch a whole lot better than he has otherwise he is released/traded.

    IF Rosales has a good year in AAA and EE's poor throwing continues EE could be our 2009 LF.

    Finding a RF/CF ( depending on where Bruce plays ) somewhere is key. The free agents for 2009 are a weak lot.
    .

  14. #13
    Member SirFelixCat's Avatar
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    Re: Reds free agents to be and money...

    I agree with RMR with 2 exceptions. I think the Reds look to move Gonzo if possible as Kepp has shown he is as viable (granted the range isn't the same, but it's close given his better bat) at a whole lot cheaper.

    And Belisle can't be the answer at LR. I hope the Reds finally cut bait w/ him.

  15. #14
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Reds free agents to be and money...

    The point I really wanted to make, and think I have, is that it's not like the Reds are going to shed a ton of salary for 2009. When people say "resign Affeldt", "resign Lincoln", etc., I want them to realize what base they're adding to.

    The Reds opened 2008 with a $74M payroll. Chances are it's not going to increase significantly beyond that without an increase in revenue. Give or take a Matt Belisle, the Reds will start 2009 about $15M short of that. If the Reds resign Dunn, they have no extra money to fill the remaining holes in the roster. If they don't resign Dunn, they have in the neighborhood of $15M to fill catcher and the corner OF spots, where no reasonable in house options exist -- and a have something in the neighborhood of 45 runs above replacement to account for.

    Excepting major trades, there are three glaring inefficiencies in our roster by my count.

    1.) Ryan Freel. Negative runs on the bases. Mediocre defense. No power. Use Hopper if you want a 5th OF who can play CF.
    2.) Alex Gonzalez. He simply isn't enough better than Keppinger to merit over $5M more than him on our roster.
    3.) Matt Belisle. I think he's worth $3M. I maintain that he can be a 4.80 ERA starter for 180 IP. That's easily worth $3M when you consider sub replacement alternatives. I don't think he's worth $3M to the Reds. If you pencil in Cueto and Volquez, we have at least Bailey and Maloney to compete for the 5th spot, with some sleepers behind them.

    Get rid of those three for whatever return you can -- hopefully something of value. That gives you enough money to resign Dunn AND pursue options elsewhere in FA or taking on salary in a trade.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  16. #15
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds free agents to be and money...

    David Ross - Option will be picked up

    Javy Valentin - Good bye

    Paul Bako - I would resign

    Scott Hatteberg - Should be traded

    Jerry Hairston Jr. - Paul Janish/Chris Dickerson

    Corey Patterson - Chris Dickerson

    David Weathers - Bye Bye

    Jeremy Affeldt - Should be traded. Bill Bray can replace

    Kent Mercker - Career's over

    Mike Lincoln - I would resign.

    Josh Fogg - Should be traded

    In all reality after Jr and Dunn the reds don't really have any above replacement level players that they are losing. IMO Harriston Jr. may be the only guy who would be tought to replace. His versitility and if he continues to hit would be tough to replace.


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